FundSurfer account talk

[FundSurfer]

I think the hammer is gonna come down in the next couple days. It could start tommorrow afternoon or wait till next Tuesday. I think I'll sit on the sidelines. What goes up will come down. I don't have to hit every peak and valley. I see a bunch of folks jumping in hoping to catch tommorrows seasonal peak day. The contrarian in me says to get to the sidelines. My system says to bail at the first sign of any red. Therefore I'm going 100% G.

 

[Wheels]

It's been hard enough catching you two what with my own goofs. But it's going to be downright impossible if you guys keep getting these gifts.

I was pretty bent last night when I went to bed and realized that each of the 3 people ahead of me in the Tally had bailed on the I fund and in doing so had padded there accounts with a large chunk of extra FV. However seeing my account balance rise helped sooth me today.

Still, it looks like I am going to have to roll up my sleeves and hit the books (books = charts, articles, commentaries, posts, etc) to reel you guys in (thus making more money, more money, more money, which afterall is the real goal).

 

[Griffin]

I was pretty bent last night when I went to bed and realized that each of the 3 people ahead of me in the Tally had bailed on the I fund and in doing so had padded there accounts with a large chunk of extra FV. However seeing my account balance rise helped sooth me today.

Still, it looks like I am going to have to roll up my sleeves and hit the books (books = charts, articles, commentaries, posts, etc) to reel you guys in (thus making more money, more money, more money, which afterall is the real goal).

Dave, I know you got beat up pretty hard by the S-fund, but the shift to small caps we were both hoping for weeks ago has finally started. Despite, the bad move I made in June and being out of the timing game most of the rest of the summer, I have been steady gaining using the S since I got back.

Have you read M_M's comments about the tally - he's got a good point: if your making risky/unsound moves gambling to get back in the game, then the tally is self destructive. Use the Tally for what it's worth - a list of people who have good handle on what their doing.

This is a turtle race - and just like in elementary school - every kid is a winner. In any given year it is theoretically possible to make or lose upwards of 100% or more using TSP. The fact that we are all hoping to capture 10-15% of that should help put the onsies/twosies in perspective.

One last thing - for all her self deprecation and denial - S&S knows what she's doing - it ain't luck.

 

[Wheels]

Dave, I know you got beat up pretty hard by the S-fund, but the shift to small caps we were both hoping for weeks ago has finally started. Despite, the bad move I made in June and being out of the timing game most of the rest of the summer, I have been steady gaining using the S since I got back.

Have you read M_M's comments about the tally - he's got a good point: if your making risky/unsound moves gambling to get back in the game, then the tally is self destructive. Use the Tally for what it's worth - a list of people who have good handle on what their doing.

This is a turtle race - and just like in elementary school - every kid is a winner. In any given year it is theoretically possible to make or lose upwards of 100% or more using TSP. The fact that we are all hoping to capture 10-15% of that should help put the onsies/twosies in perspective.

One last thing - for all her self deprecation and denial - S&S knows what she's doing - it ain't luck.

Yes. The S fund is outperforming a bit this week and it is good to finally get on the right side of it. If today's gains hold then I will be getting a little closer to approaching my high's for the year.

I did read M_M's comments. Did you read my post further down in the thread.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=54631&postcount=31.

S&S is doing very well but there has been a little luck. I would guess 2-3% of her return is from FV's that went her way. But even without that 2-3% she is doing very well. The self deprecation just makes it a little hard to take her posts seriously. But I guess many others here still find it humorous so power to her.

 

[Griffin]

I did read M_M's comments. Did you read my post further down in the thread.

I did not catch that post on the first read. I agree with you about the competition issue. Competition is a great motivator (procrastination to the point of panic is my other personal favorite ) - If I wasn't in the military - I would be a dope smoking hippie, which brings me to the other point

It is a little hard to take a S&S seriously - but then again, why should you trust anyone on a free website? She's like the Oracle of Delphi and I'm not going to knock it, luck favors the bold.

 

[Wheels]

Sorry FS for hi-jacking your thread. I'll release it now.

 

[Griffin]

Sorry FS for hi-jacking your thread. I'll release it now.

Me too, I apologize -

FS, your the only beating her, do you watch what she does? you mentioned that her good luck trumps your bad luck - do you think it is all luck or some skill?

 

[FundSurfer]

Nope... all interesting read...

No, I respect what S&S does and do not account everything as luck. The statement I made about her good luck trumping my bad was meant more as a statement of my bad luck when it has come to FV's. She has said that some of the moves she made were because she was hoping to catch the right end of an FV. If you look at when she made those moves, it was going into the I-fund not out. I think that Barclay's is over guessing the FV's so that tact may be very smart indeed. Besides, she can be very entertaining...

Do I watch her? Yes I watch everyone who is doing well...

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm sitting here playing with spreadsheets and daydreaming about this weekend. I'm in safe harbor (G-fund) for now and thinking I got out too early. It's easy to Monday morning QB your own moves. I have to stay in G now since I don't want to be in the market for Tuesday at this point. If the market was diving I'd be considering it, but it isn't. Y'all have a nice weekend.

 

[FundSurfer]

The drop has occurred that I was looking for. I'm possibly jumping in a little early which is why I didn't go in 100%. I'm also spread between CSI to help spread the risk. If tommorrow is down again I'll probably push in the rest.

 

[sugarandspice]

I was feeling the same way about jumping in. Decided to wait 1 more day though. I jumped in too early about 10 days ago but still managed to amke a little anyway. I think that made me wait this time and if it is flat to down tomorrow I will probably go all in.


Fundsurfer,
Sorry for the intrusion. I tried to stop her but it was too late.

 

[nnuut]

Not much driving the market tomorrow. Have;
OIL is looking pretty good now days, little more drop may lift the market some. Consumer Credit report shouldn't effect the market unless the predictions are way off, so tomorrow may be kinda flat, unless something that we don't know about happens, as always.
Consumer Credit

• Importance (A-F): This release merits a D-.
• Source: Federal Reserve.
• Release Time: 15:00 ET on the fifth business day of the month (data for two months prior).
• Raw Data Available At: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/.

This monthly measure of consumer debt is volatile and subject to massive revisions. It is also released well after every other consumer spending indicator, including weekly chain store sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, and personal consumption. For these reasons, the market almost never reacts to the consumer credit report.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

 

[FundSurfer]

The late day sell off has me wishing I'd waited... Oh well, I'll still have 30% with which to buy on further pullback.

 

[FundSurfer]

Buying back in cheaper than I sold so a successful trade. Now I'll sit and wait for it to rebound back up. I've chosen a diverse allocation since my interenet access may be spotty next week. If I had good access and knew I could easily bail, I'd probably gone 100% I or 50S, 50I.

 

[FundSurfer]

C&S Funds reaching the top of their channels and seeing resistance, I'll probably reduce the amount I have of those 2 funds. I-fund near bottom of its channel. It would be tough to buy more I-fund since it follows the US lead typically and I think US is headed lower (short term). However, I think the dollar is headed lower still (it dropped some this morning already), I may go ahead and increase the amount of I-fund I currently have since it may still out produce the G-fund.

It's good to be back in front of a computer... I'm glad I got lucky while away.

 

[FundSurfer]

Ended up going 100%G. US markets have not rebounded from this morning and foriegn markets may close lower tommorrow as a result. I'll likely stay on the sidelines till middle of next week unless the I-fund shows signs of life at which time I'll jump on board the I-fund.

 

[Birchtree]

We may possibly already be in the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle. FWIW.

 

[FundSurfer]

We may possibly already be in the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle. FWIW.

FWIW, I agree. However, what goes up must come down and I'm thinking I can sell here and buy back in cheaper in a few days. I'm bullish just not for the next few days. If I miss a percent cause it jumps without me, I'll be OK and jump on for the ride. I got my spurs ready to ride the bull. YeeHaw!

 

[FundSurfer]

Thinking of moving into the I-fund tommorrow for the following reasons:

1: I-fund remains at the bottom of its short term channel/trough.

2: The I-fund today remained solid.

3: The C&S did not reverse on a day when they clearly should given quad-witching and the fact they were at top of trading range.

4: The dollar reversed back down following a sharp morning increase.

5: I think the Fed will continue its pause for now and thus dollar may drop following their meeting.

I posted the above yesterday in the I-fund thread. The red this morning concerned me a little but the C&S markets moving latterally adds a little comfort. I'm expecting the dollar to drop tommorow following a no-action move by the Fed. I have not moved everything into the I-fund. I'm looking at today's red as a buying opportunity with the I-fund riding the bottom of it's channel. If dollar spikes or OSM dropps tommorrow, I'll likely buy more I-fund with my 50% I left in G.

I've been following TSPGO's 4 year cycle post and find it interesting. I think we will likely see a drop in C&S since they are at the top of their trading channels. This may affect the I-fund some but the I-fund is likely to bounce back quicker if it does.

As to the f-fund, I'm staying clear. It has had a nice ride but is getting closer to what I would see as the top of a long term trading channel for the f-fund (look at a 1 year chart to see what I'm talking about.) It doesn't pay well enough for me to risk it right now.

Just my rambling thoughts for the morning. Tommorrow should be interesting but we will not know anything till after thetrading deadline.

 

[FundSurfer]

Well, I'm wishing I'd been more agressive yesterday. No sense looking back, got to look forward. There is a chance of reversal tommorrow of the move forward this morning (or this afternoon for that matter). I still think the Fed will keep rates constant and dollar will slide some as tensions in Thailand ease and investors betting on rate increase bail out which will help I-fund even if reversal does occur. I still don't trust C&S, though I'd feel safer in C considering the drops in C have been mild compared to S, both are high in their channels. I see several others are leading the way toward I-fund (Show-me, Griffin, WOZ; ebbnflow, pyriel, Fivetears, S&S already there).