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ChemEng said:
Im 100% in I hoping thats true... :)
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I really don't think that the FED will lower rates this month, just my gut feeling. They are not going to jump so quickly, it would make their last raise look unnecessary. I think it may be next month, if things don't change. This is based on nothing just my thoughts. DUH!:notrust:
 
That's OK too nnuut. Rumor news thing. By the time they lower rates the market may already have it priced in.

nnuut said:
Ireally don't think that the FED will lower rates this month, just my gut feeling. They are not going to jump so quickly, it would make their last raise look unnecessary. I think it may be next month, if things don't change. This is based on nothing just my thoughts. DUH!:notrust:
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Hmmmm... Have I mentioned I hate the I-fund.... I got caught on the wrong side of an FV again. I would not mind if Barclay's was a decent GUESSER...

Now that I've vented, everything is still positive for now and moving forward. Some healthy profit taking but definitely a market that want to go up.

If you looked at just the charts and ranked them. S-fund best bet, then I-fund, then C-fund. C-fund seems poised for a pull back. We could also be seeing the a shift upward for S&P long term outlook - I'm sure Birchy would agree. Look at about a 20 year chart for S&P to see if you see those changes. I don't think those are predictable. You just notice and use them when the are visible.

I'm staying put for now.
 
I'm bailing to G-fund. S-fund has reached the top of a very short term channel and has been green for quite a few days. C-fund is in need of a rest as well and may be loosing steam. I-fund seems to very risky right now. The dollar has been trending upward and if anything escalates with NK or Iran, I'd expect the dollar to go higher temporarily. I expect the dollar to head lower after oil begins to go back up. I'd like to see a healthy 1-2% pullback followed by the forth quarter Santa rally.
 
There is no douby in my mind that you made a wise decision. With a rising dollar perhaps Birchtree is on to something in looking at the possibility that the C fund might benefit primarily more than the I fund. At least we have to consider this possibikity. --


FundSurfer said:
I'm bailing to G-fund. S-fund has reached the top of a very short term channel and has been green for quite a few days. C-fund is in need of a rest as well and may be loosing steam. I-fund seems to very risky right now. The dollar has been trending upward and if anything escalates with NK or Iran, I'd expect the dollar to go higher temporarily. I expect the dollar to head lower after oil begins to go back up. I'd like to see a healthy 1-2% pullback followed by the forth quarter Santa rally.
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Sponsor,

The C fund will continue to do better with a lower dollar - it makes our export prices cheaper and more competitive. We need more spending on goods and services produced in the good ole USA.
 
I believe this is true. But with a lower dollar, the I fund also benefits with the currency differential. --


Birchtree said:
Sponsor,

The C fund will continue to do better with a lower dollar - it makes our export prices cheaper and more competitive. We need more spending on goods and services produced in the good ole USA.
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Sponsor,

The I fund is not a currency transaction - they are large cap companies and most of their product will be going into emerging countries. The I fund will continue to do fine with 1021 companies, of which 24% is financial. I wouldn't even bother with the dollar distractions - concentrate on the earnings.
 
Thanks for the information and advise! --


Birchtree said:
Sponsor,

The I fund is not a currency transaction - they are large cap companies and most of their product will be going into emerging countries. The I fund will continue to do fine with 1021 companies, of which 24% is financial. I wouldn't even bother with the dollar distractions - concentrate on the earnings.
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Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.
 
FundSurfer said:
Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.
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I often feel like the italian in "The Princess Bride" where he gets in the contest with the dread pirate Roberts over which cup of wine has the poison in it, only to find out they were both poisoned.....a little too late.
 
FundSurfer said:
Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.
Click to expand...

You can always buy and hold FS...........:p
 
This morning's drop does look enticing. The key is when will investors on the sidelines begin to get back into the market. Having been on the sidelines during the recent run-up makes me want to jump on the first opportunity. I'm not jumping in till I see that we are not continuing to fall. I've been through this before and jumped right into the market too quickly, only to loose money and have to jump back out again. May comes to mind. The market dropped, bounced ever so slightly, I jumped into the market and we had a 2% drop the next day. I did jump back out and avoided more on the downside. I haven't forgotten that sting. I know this isn't May, so I'll not dally too much before getting back in, but I am a little gun shy.

I'll wait.
 
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