FundSurfer account talk

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I went 100% I because the dollar went up too much too fast IMHO. When that happens, it has been retracing the following day. I'm still very nervous about this market and hoping that I don't get whacked. This is admittedly a gamble. In the past I've occasionally gotten bitten by a FV that goes against me in these situations as well. Time will tell.
 
Went 40% S, 60% I just for diversification purposes. Like I said, I'm hanging out the boxcar door looking for a soft spot to jump toward if I see trouble ahead.
 
As I continue to run in front of this train I can tell you that the tracks look clear. I'm maintaining a steady pace and perhaps next week I'll sell a beauty and do some more wall flower shopping. I have to burn 200 more trades before the year ends - well I don't have to burn them, but they are free. Once we hit 1528 on the SPX those stocks will explode and up goes the C fund. It's going to be called outperformance.
 
The G-fund penny should come on Monday. The gain will be equivalent to an annual rate of return of 21.5% (0.086% gain for the day * 250 trading days a year).

Given that the markets are stretched...

Given that today started out red...

Given that Iran is boasting that they have doubled uranium production rates...

The penny is looking mighty good right now... a definite soft spot.
 
No telling when we might get that elusive pullback, however there are a lot of traders out there that have been waiting a long time for one and may jump at the opportunity to get in before any meaningful pullback has a chance.

Currently 100% S myself and contemplating a 50% hedge to G fund just to be safe. Noticed that the dollar is under more pressure this morning and yet the I fund is still down over .6 percent.

you're doing very well this year FS. Good job.
 
coolhand said:
No telling when we might get that elusive pullback, however there are a lot of traders out there that have been waiting a long time for one and may jump at the opportunity to get in before any meaningful pullback has a chance.

Currently 100% S myself and contemplating a 50% hedge to G fund just to be safe. Noticed that the dollar is under more pressure this morning and yet the I fund is still down over .6 percent.

you're doing very well this year FS. Good job.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I hear what you are saying. Dip buyers will be out in full force. Already seeing it this morning. When I'm not sure, I like being out of the market over the weekend. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.

There are also a bunch of people who have been expecting the pullback and will be going short (which causes the market to go down by their selling short).

Thanks for the compliment.
 
I went to G-fund to get the penny and missed. I need to pay better attention to my calculations. I did not think to check how close the penny prediction was (less than 0.0005). Live and learn.

Back to 100% S. I would diversify into the I-fund but I'm not sure where dollar is headed short term. I'll wait till that is clearer before getting into I-fund.
 
Fundsurfer,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn
 
I have was travelling yesterday and didn't have access to net. Probably a good thing since I might have jumped and missed a potiential bounce today. I'm travelling again so I've got to decide now what to do. Well, I'll sit tight in the S-fund.
 
I changed to a distributed allocation. I'm spreading my risk somewhat. I did not jump to the safety of the G-fund because I think this pullback will be limited. We are in a strong time of year. With all the talk of stocks going down after the elections, I'm beginning to think the we could get a reversal on election day. A reverse sell the news (ie buy the bad news) type reaction. i remember last year everyone was talking about the previous years post new years drop in the market and thus jumped out prior to the new year. We then had a new years day pop in the market. Could the same thing happen as a result of the elections? I don't know but I'm beginning to get that same feeling.

On a system note, my system calls for me to get out when we reached the top of the channel and have a couple down days. Well we had a couple down days and one was a whopper for me in the S-fund. The C-fund is near the bottom of the channel, I-fund near bottom of an extremely narrow channel and S-fund is in the middle of the channel but has dropped from a position above the channel that had the s-fund been at the top of the channel it would now be the bottom... probably confusing...sorry. For these reasons I'm hesitant to get out. If we go below the channel bottoms, I'll bail out at that point.
 
FundSurfer said:
On a system note, my system calls for me to get out when we reached the top of the channel and have a couple down days. Well we had a couple down days and one was a whopper for me in the S-fund. The C-fund is near the bottom of the channel, I-fund near bottom of an extremely narrow channel and S-fund is in the middle of the channel but has dropped from a position above the channel that had the s-fund been at the top of the channel it would now be the bottom... probably confusing...sorry. For these reasons I'm hesitant to get out. If we go below the channel bottoms, I'll bail out at that point.
Click to expand...

I know I should do my own homework, but if you could just tell us, what are the numbers that you see as the "bottom" of each of those three channels? Where are the exit points for you?
 
Birchtree said:
I wouldn't give you my edge. Providing I had any kind of edge.
Click to expand...

Are we being mean-spirited?? You wouldn't save me the trouble of printing three graphs and drawing the lines myself if you had already done it? And as for your edge, despite the fact that you buy and hold, so I obviously don't watch your moves, I think highly of what you have to say and feel the better for the fact that you do share. If you're in the mood to sound like a hard ass, go ahead. We know you're not.
 
The best way to learn the money game is simply by doing it. The more homework you do, the better you get. Looks like Fundsurfer is going for the value play. If he's right then I'm right by default.
 
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