FundSurfer account talk

[Retire]

Well, I'm wishing I'd been more agressive yesterday. No sense looking back, got to look forward. There is a chance of reversal tommorrow of the move forward this morning (or this afternoon for that matter). I still think the Fed will keep rates constant and dollar will slide some as tensions in Thailand ease and investors betting on rate increase bail out which will help I-fund even if reversal does occur. I still don't trust C&S, though I'd feel safer in C considering the drops in C have been mild compared to S, both are high in their channels. I see several others are leading the way toward I-fund (Show-me, Griffin, WOZ; ebbnflow, pyriel, Fivetears, S&S already there).

Here is a tough question for the TSP studs. I don't know how to ask this question without being invasive, please don't take offense. Many of you are taking very significant risk with 100% moves primarily in the I, S, or C fund. How does the value of your account affect your decisions? Without getting into specifics, could we use some generalized numbers say like: Under 100K(apples), Over 200K(oranges), Over 400K(bananas). I am not looking for anyone to disclose account balances. We all watch each others moves, yet we never know if we are comparing ourselves to apples, oranges, or bananas. I am trying to assess if am taking appropriate risks for the capital I am working with. Yes, I realize as we get closer to retirement we should preserve capital and take less risk. I have 13 years to my MRA, and find myself being driven more by account balances than years to retirement. Any insights would be appreciated.

 

[Griffin]

... Many of you are taking very significant risk with 100% moves primarily in the I, S, or C fund. How does the value of your account affect your decisions? Without getting into specifics, could we use some generalized numbers say like: Under 100K(apples), Over 200K(oranges), Over 400K(bananas). I have 13 years to my MRA, and find myself being driven more by account balances than years to retirement. Any insights would be appreciated....

Retire,

I am a few months from migrating out of the apples category. I got a long way to go. I consider all of this to be a great experiment, if I can consistently meet or beat the market for the next 3 to 4 years, I will be satisfied that this is worth continuing at 100%, probably INTO retirement (if I am truely that successful). I actually feel safer by managing my money then letting it sit, oblivious.

Keep in mind, all those models (100%-your age = stocks, etc....) are geared for people who DO NOT manage their money on a daily basis. The risks we are taking are insignificant within the time frame's that we are moving - at anytime I can cease what I'm doing. If your not good at it and/or your not willing to commit the time to know what you are doing, then you have to factor that it in and adjust accordingly.

I think of it as Monopoly money (even though I'm putting in 20%+ of my salary not counting the match), right now I'm playing with the pink stuff, someday I' expect to be doing the same thing with the tan and the orange stuff. Keep in mind that these are hugh index funds and even a 100% concentration in one fund is extremely diversified. TSP timing is orders of magnitude safer then trading individual stocks.

 

[FundSurfer]

Good question. We've had discussions before along these lines. To answer your question, I'm mid-career with 16 years to go until I'm eligible to retire. I'm in the oranges category. I have quite a bit of money that I'm moving around and I recognize myself as being very aggressive with my account. My agressiveness has not occurred over night. Like Tom, I started moving my money around back when there was as much as a month and a half delay in when your money actually moved. As time has gone on I have gotten much more confident in my abilities and thus become very aggressive. I look at my past gains which have taken me well above a 100% c-fund allocation and I am comfortable that if a 5-10% correction occured and I was on the wrong side, I'd still be better off for having been aggressive.

I agree totally with what Griffin said. Each person's risk tolerance is different and you have to be able to sleep at night. Wheels has said that he is in the Bannana's + category and I would classify him as agressive as well.

So far what has affected my aggressiveness has really been my ability to pay attention to the market. During those times when I do not have internet access or know that I'll be too busy to be able to follow the market you will see me take a diversified but agressive stance (30%C, 35% S, 35%I) unless we are in a bear market which would change my thinking.

I'm working on a spreadsheet that will track the Tally on a daily basis and allow us to evaluate maximum account drawdown which could be used to evaluate level of risk. (If I could concentrate on one thing at a time I'd probably finish one of my projects but...)

I don't know how my aggressiveness will change as I approach retirement but I'd be willing to bet I'd still be more agressive than the average person. Hope that answered your question.

 

[Wheels]

Wheels has said that he is in the Bannana's + category and I would classify him as agressive as well.

Correct on both counts. I pretty much mirror exactly what FS said. That is, I recognize that I am aggressive and that I expose myself to some risk. However I have beaten the C every since I started to more closely manage my account (2003) and I'll keep going until I get burned.

 

[Retire]

Hey guys, thanks so much! I too started taking an active approach in 2001. Active, yet a little passive. Unfortunately I did not find this site until July 06. Since you all disclosed, I am a ripe orange. I really appreciate this site and all your input. The major take away is that there is safety in the multitude of counselors. So, consider the awesome service this site provides. For me, being able to see agreement for moves adds a level of confidence I had been lacking. I plan to continue my pursuit to be aggressive on moves, when the risk/reward is there. Thanks to all for being a team to help each player succeed!

 

[CountryBoy]

I'd like to add an amen to Retire's comments. This site sure has been a great help to me also. Thanks for sharing all y'all's insight.

CB

 

[AIF]

I'd like to echo CountyBoy's comments about Retire's post. I've only been here a short time but I've gained a greater understanding about this entire process. I was out there trying to act on my own with little confidence about the decisions I was making and why. I stopped by this site often but never took the time to really see what was going on. I'm glad I decided to stop and take the time.

 

[FundSurfer]

I considered taking some off the table this morning; however, I is still low in the channel and dollar is still due to drop in my opinion. I've seen some professionals taking profits (we saw a dip this morning but a rebound) which had me wondering. This time of year tends to be choppy and move laterally. I'm kind of in a grey area for how I approach the market. October/November through May I look for a couple red days after my target has been reached as a signal to switch. Over the summer I'm much quicker on the trigger. I've decided to let this dog run a little but I'll bail out quickly. I've got a target of 20.9 for the I-fund but I don't expect the ride there to be a rocket. There may be some dips yet in September so I'll be watching US markets as indicator leads for I-fund. Bottom line: US markets are green so I'm stayin put in the I-fund.

 

[FundSurfer]

I posted charts for F, C, S, and I in the threads for each respective fund. The slope (rate of short term daily gain) is still greatest for the I-fund followed by S and then C. The S-fund is near bottom of both a short term channel and a longer term channel which is why I added to my position in the S-fund. The I fund is at the bottom of a short term cycle and near the top of a longer term channel. The I-fund has also been hit with a rising dollar these last few days which has acted like an anchor for gains. In the recent past these turn arounds in dollar value have gone back down fairly quickly. Reading some dollar tracking websites leads me to believe that the dollar is likely to continue upwards for the next few days. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the top of short term and long term channel. i realize money is rotating into the C-fund; however, the gains (slope) still trails the S and I. I'll be paying attention to those channels in order to determine when I get defensive (either funds break below the bottom or approach the top of the channel will trigger defensive moves on my part.)

 

[Birchtree]

I'm particularly glad you don't like that awful C fund - keep up the reasons not to own that dull fund. I want it all to my selfish self. Hooah!

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm moving to 100%G. This actually goes against what my system/method tells me to do and is based on market conditions and gut reaction. My method calls for me to ride a wave of green up till we have some red signals. So far we've had a good green run and there is still room to improve upward in the channels (except C which is breaking out to the upside). However, I've done well and have decided that I need to protect my gains rather than try and get to the top. My gut is worried about what will happen once the quarter is over and the need for window dressing is gone. Couple that with the euphoria over reaching new highs and my "counter the herd" instinct is pointing toward the sideline as well.

I know the dollar is ripe for a drop; however, if we see a 1-2% drop in the US markets this will affect the overseas market and since it is more volitile we could see a drop in OSM that is greater than any affect a dropping dollar might provide.

What goes up will come back down. I'll step aside and wait for the roller coaster to come back down before getting back on.

 

[fabijo]

Looks like you didn't miss out on waiting a day. I fund looks to be breaking even today.

 

[airlift]

Fundsurfer, --

I like your technical analysis and your opinions are very important to me. A couple of days ago, you posted these charts and I used them successfully to confirm my own belief as to what are the markets' most probable direction. Admittedly, I have been subscribed to RM.com for many years, and I have learned quite a lot from the fine technical analysts who write there on a daily basis (including Rev SharK). But in Tom Crowley's daily analysis and charts, as well as your posting of the TSP charts, I can receive information which is tailored specifically to the TSP funds. Without detracting or excluding other fine colleagues who have come to my help in this site, I want to thank you for your important contribution. Keep it up, and Good Luck! --

I posted charts for F, C, S, and I in the threads for each respective fund. The slope (rate of short term daily gain) is still greatest for the I-fund followed by S and then C. The S-fund is near bottom of both a short term channel and a longer term channel which is why I added to my position in the S-fund. The I fund is at the bottom of a short term cycle and near the top of a longer term channel. The I-fund has also been hit with a rising dollar these last few days which has acted like an anchor for gains. In the recent past these turn arounds in dollar value have gone back down fairly quickly. Reading some dollar tracking websites leads me to believe that the dollar is likely to continue upwards for the next few days. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the top of short term and long term channel. i realize money is rotating into the C-fund; however, the gains (slope) still trails the S and I. I'll be paying attention to those channels in order to determine when I get defensive (either funds break below the bottom or approach the top of the channel will trigger defensive moves on my part.)

 

[FundSurfer]

Thanks for the feedback. Like you, I learned a lot from others on this site. Thanks to Tom for putting together and spending so much time on it .

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

 

[nnuut]

I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

HEE! Beloooow $58

 

[Show-me]

Looks like the dollar is give'n it back. The rumor on the street is that the FED will possibly lower rates. This should have a weakening effect on the dollar.

I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

 

[Griffin]

Looks like the dollar is give'n it back. The rumor on the street is that the FED will possibly lower rates. This should have a weakening effect on the dollar.

Did you catch CopterDoc's post about the ECB raising the rate on the Euro? When in doubt, the I will be my fund of choice.

 

[Show-me]

I just did. The MB was real busy today and I popped in and out a number of times trying to keep up. That one must have slipped through the cracks.

Looking like the dollar is being set up for a big decline. ECB raising rates and the possibility of the FED lowering. Double whammy!

Did you catch CopterDoc's post about the ECB raising the rate on the Euro? When in doubt, the I will be my fund of choice.

 

[ChemEng]

Im 100% in I hoping thats true...