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FundSurfer account talk
- Thread starter FundSurfer
- Start date
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I'm not seeing enough red to qualify as a buy day. Looks sideways to me. That will keep me on the sidelines. Maybe I'll use this time to look at F-fund again.
Griffin
Well-known member
Birch, I know your going to try sidestep this with some comment that successive bottoms don't count as a single bottom, but bottoms (single, double, triple) and type (adams and eves) and there various combinations, all say something about the psychology, health and strength of the market. Just because we are looking at what appears to be a single adam bottom, you shouldn't get all proud of yourself, you said it was going to rebound everyday as it sank lower and everyday since. We all know you were going too spout your mantra regardless of what happened. Since you can't participate in objective analysis, stay out and accept that we are going to comment about your lack of objectivity.
Speaking of objective analysis: Fundsurfer, with yesterdays end of day sell off and todays strength, are you now looking at a move back in? I just went 100% in the S. I am leary of any full recovery, but it does appear we have found support. I am looking to see this rally to eventually bring us back to near previous high levels, before we begin the next cycle down over the next few months.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
As I look at the charts, I see large immediate opening move up and then sideways. I'm still cautious. I see the support it bounced off of but volume has still been light. I may wait a little longer.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
FS,
It's me Spaf (member mode)
Take a look at yesterdays S&P chart! Doesen't it look like a double bottom being formed??
Whats your opinion?
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I see potiential to form a double bottom but it hasn't occured yet. I'm thinking like Tom right now, history tells us there is likely to be a retest.
Right now I'm fairly sure I'm going to stay on the sidelines for the weekend. This is going to be a touchy market for a while. I don't want something to happen over the weekend that scares the market and catches me in stocks.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I have not seen anything that makes me want to jump into this market. The I-fund is up only because the dollar is getting whacked. OSM trended down most of today. The Japanese market is the exception but it closed about the time everything else began to fall. I'd expect Japan to have a negative bias for tommorrow. Many people are waiting on a retest. I'm one of them. Today's action does not change my thoughts on that.
If anything, the F-fund is looking better.
If anything, the F-fund is looking better.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Looking at the charts, it looks to me like a bad time to jump in right now. Too bad we can't short the funds. I'm feeling bearish short term.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Here's what the current fund charts look like. I actually made these 10 minutes before close and we dropped a little more. The C-fund appears to be at retest. The S&I have a little ways to go to retest. Do you remember what Griffin has said in the past about what the cycle of recovery is out of a pullback? I think it is C...S...I... I'll have to go back and look or maybe he'll enlighten us again. Looks like tommorrow maybe a good day to buy. I'm thinking of buying a diverse allocation of CS&I.
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Congrats to those that were on the sidelines and bought today. I didn't think we'd that big a move that fast.
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Congrats to those that were on the sidelines and bought today. I didn't think we'd that big a move that fast.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
What do you think about the possibility of another drop to the 200 Day Moving Average like in June, and Aug 1998, and most other corrections ?
Norman
ATCJeff
Well-known member
What do you think about the possibility of another drop to the 200 Day Moving Average like in June, and Aug 1998, and most other corrections ?
Very likely and we could break below the 200 ma...
FundSurfer
Well-known member
What do you think about the possibility of another drop to the 200 Day Moving Average like in June, and Aug 1998, and most other corrections ?
Possible. That's about another 2% drop from where we are.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Have to make an early decision today. I can not see stepping under a falling knife especially since we are so close to support. It could bounce off of support or free fall through it. I'm a high risk taker but not that high. I think we bounce and if I bought in I'd be buying lower than I sold - good thing - but as Nnuut points out, another 2% drop is possible. I'm patient. I can wait for clearer signals. ... Wish I could be around to buy I-fund if US markets turn around and go green before noon....
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I'm not jumping yet.
Option expiration usually adds a jump in normal market. This ain't a normal market. I think the risk of red tommorrow is higher than I'm comfortable with. I gave serious thought to going 40% G, 30%S, 30%I, thinking that S & I were due a little more bounce. They may be, but in this up and down market I'm on the sidelines unless I feel more comfortable with a decision. I'm going with my head, not my heart.
Option expiration usually adds a jump in normal market. This ain't a normal market. I think the risk of red tommorrow is higher than I'm comfortable with. I gave serious thought to going 40% G, 30%S, 30%I, thinking that S & I were due a little more bounce. They may be, but in this up and down market I'm on the sidelines unless I feel more comfortable with a decision. I'm going with my head, not my heart.
FogSailing
Well-known member
I am tempted to go 50%G, 25%S and 25%I before noon today based on market response to the witches brew....if the market tanks by less than 2%, that's what I think makes some sense, if more than 2%, I'm thinking 20%G, 25%C, 25%S, and 25%. Does that sound reasonable to you? Thanks for your thoughts.
FogSailing
FogSailing
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I'd doubt we'd know before noon how bad or good the end of the day will be. If it looks like a solid red day I'd probably be a buyer. If it is even to green I'm probably sitting on the sidelines a while longer. Your idea of more red means more buy is a valid one. OSM is down but I-fund probably will be green because the dollar has dropped significantly over night. That'll probably change around 9 am. Time will tell.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Fundsurfer:
Thanks for the response...My eyes are peeled to the news...with the Industrial's looking better and CPI not as bad as expected, etc. thus far, light Green looks possible for today. Thanks.
FogSailing
Thanks for the response...My eyes are peeled to the news...with the Industrial's looking better and CPI not as bad as expected, etc. thus far, light Green looks possible for today. Thanks.
FogSailing
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