FundSurfer account talk

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FundSurfer said:
If it looks like a solid red day I'd probably be a buyer. If it is even to green I'm probably sitting on the sidelines a while longer.
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You must have read my mind! (or I yours.) :) Ive been sitting comfortably-if a bit impatiently-on my lilly pad for most of the week and looking for a good entry point. Well see how today pans out...
 
I always keep Griffin's thread as an open page (minimized, but at ready to refresh). Very insightful! Thanks Griffin
 
Griffin said:
The big selloffs usually come the Monday after.
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Keyword = "usually"...

Good input Griffin! However, I'm not sure we are in usual market conditions. You are correct, I "usually" play options expiration as a sell on Friday kind of deal. Market tends to rise toward the end of the week. This seems to me to be an upside down type scenario.

I'm liking the dive toward red, but I'm not sure if it will be enough to motivate me to buy. I'll probably decide last minute.
 
I am not going to argue with you. I made the last minute decision to move, the delay was for exactly the reasons you mention.
 
I put some money into C&S. Markets have been moving so fast it has been tough to buy red and sell green. Today was headed red. It wasn't a big move so I just moved some money. If it dips some more on Monday, I'll buy so more.
 
Looking at the charts, it looks like we may be forming channels that are parallel to the channels we had prior to the drop. I'm attaching the charts with the parallel lines I'm looking at so you'll have an understanding of my thought process.

Looking at those line, it looks like S-fund may be the best bet. C-fund seems to be middle of the channel and I-fund near the top. We also need to keep in mind that following significant drops we tend to have oscillations between the low point and the top of the bounce following the drop. Thinking about that, C-fund seems to be the best bet. S&I are near the top of the bounce.

With the dollar very low right now, I'm thinking C & S may be the safer place for my money right now. Street guesstimates/bets that the Fed will lower interest rates have the potiential to drop the dollar (help the I-fund), but that drop may have already occured. The fact that the street is now guessing multiple Fed drops instead of one drop is really the only new wrinkle.

View attachment 1508
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View attachment 1509
 
I still think we are headed higher but it looks to me like we are going up today too far too fast. In this uncertain environment that tends to bring on profit taking. We may see a red to sideways day or two which I would probably buy back into. I can see a play for 100% I-fund and considered it, but I just think the dollar is due a bounce which will act like an anchor. The I-fund has been pretty volitile so I decided to err on the side of caution.
 
I tend to think the C and S have been the safer bets of late, also. But I've got a system that barely ever gets out of the market, so safety isn't what should drive me.
 
Everything is bumping resistance. I think I'll wait till tommorrow to see how it turns out. The move to I-fund looks really inviting (OSM tends to follow USM), but with these markets being very volitile I'd hate to get caught on a flip flop (US dives late and traps you in an I-fund that will follow US late move down). I'm hoping the Fed brings on some temporary red for me to buy into.
 
Buy red / sell green points towards buy.

I'm thinking we might drop a little more. I'd hate to buy back too quickly. This market has been swinging very quickly of late. It's hard to time when swings move so far so fast.

I'm currently in G. If I was going to buy into the market, which I'd say is only a slim chance for today, I'd buy S and/or C fund. S looks to have more growing room and the dollar drop has me thinking the dollar will bounce higher and hurt/slow the I-fund.
 
Gosh... Do I really want to buy into the market on a Friday (Mondays seem to be down more often than any other day) when Iran has just seized British Soldiers? This at a time of high tension between Iran and other Western nations? Seems like Iran wants a confrontation...

I think I'm patient enough to wait till next week.
 
FundSurfer said:
Gosh... Do I really want to buy into the market on a Friday (Mondays seem to be down more often than any other day) when Iran has just seized British Soldiers? This at a time of high tension between Iran and other Western nations? Seems like Iran wants a confrontation...

I think I'm patient enough to wait till next week.
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Agree. This is what changed my mind. Too much risk.
 
Yea, I had a change of schedule this morning and threw me out of whack. I'm on the verge of easing back in, but the Iran news was like a rocket going off in my ear on the drive to work. After that I didn't look back. Let things cool a bit this weekend. Chart wise I would guess that the C and S should allow an more friendly entry point next week. Been going strong the last five days.
 
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