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No way we will nuke Iran !! Too much at stake if oil industry is damaged.

A conventional ground attack would be way too costly on an already overburdened military establishment.

Any "attack" will have to be from both a political and economic platform.

Dell
 
I think you will see more of a diplomatic approach in a election year. The Republican Party is showing some weakness when it comes to holding the party line. Just ask the U.S. Attorney General.
 
On the road again.... just can wait to get onthe road again...
Well, I thought my hotel would have wireless but no dice. At least it has in room direct hookup. No access for me except in the evening.

Recent sideways (with today's blip down) has me thinking of staying on the sidelines a while longer. My return so far this year ain't gaudy but I'm ahead of the S&P. I can be careful.
 
I jumped into the market cause of the end of the quarter window dressing. I jumped out today because of fear. There are a bunch of folks who's opinion I respect headed for the shelter of G. Looking at it from a chart perspective, we could go up or down significantly. With so many people headed toward the safety of G, I'm thinking down before up. Hope it is tommorrow and not a late afternoon collapse.

Overall I'm bullish and this is probably short term dash to safety.
 
Well, it looked like it could go up or down and it went up. Wish I'd stayed put, oh well.

I'm in the C-fund because it has a ways to go to get back to where the drop started from compared to S&I. It is also an insurance diversification play. I'm in the I-fund for possible follow-up tommorrow but the diversification into the c-fund helps me mitigate some of the risk of that move.
 
I'm expecting a slight pullback profit taking tommorrow. Trying to play a wiggle. Follow through today was not spectacular. I expected more pop from the soldier release. Lack of pop may mean that there is limited upside for the moment.

I went to F because it is over due. Bad jobs could give it a lift.
 
Thanks, FundSurfer. I love when you share these charts. I'm glad I'm going to the C fund. Look how much recovering it has to do just to reach the levels it was at before 2/27. That gives me plenty reason to hang out in there longer.
 
Hmmmmm..... This seems to be the energizer bunny market. Very tight range that has steadily moved up. I'm very tempted to move to I-fund for tommorrow. The problem is that if it moves up too much after noon, we could get a +FV which would not be good for someone to move into the I-fund.

The USD continues to fall. How long before the FED puffs up and struts and says something to try and slow the fall? I don't expect the FED to act, but rather expect a FED board member to puff themselves up and say something which suggest the FED might do something. Makes me leary of the I-fund.

I'm tired of sitting on the sidelines watching the chart go up and up. I need to re-read the investor sentiment cycle chart that Tom occasionally post. Capitulation? jUMP IN RIGHT BEFORE THE DROP?

decisions decisions...
 
FundSurfer said:
The USD continues to fall. How long before the FED puffs up and struts and says something to try and slow the fall? I don't expect the FED to act, but rather expect a FED board member to puff themselves up and say something which suggest the FED might do something. Makes me leary of the I-fund.
Click to expand...

That's what's been keeping me from playing the I Fund. I keep imagining that the dollar cannot get any lower, but it keeps managing to be taken by gravity's force.
 
FundSurfer said:
The USD continues to fall. How long before the FED puffs up and struts and says something to try and slow the fall? I don't expect the FED to act, but rather expect a FED board member to puff themselves up and say something which suggest the FED might do something. Makes me leary of the I-fund.
Click to expand...

I am amazed the way the market has shrugged off the inflation, the S&P 500 is up only about 2% for the year once you net inflation. For such a raging bull market, that is a big pill of reality the market is going to have to swallow at some point.

We are definitely trading dollar value away to gain a competitive edge in the foreign markets. I suspect that the Fed won't really start to bark until the dollar index gets below 80.0, then it will have to rate hike like the 80's to stem the inflation. If the dollar index hits a half century (or more) low, the market will probably take notice........."play til May then go away" - I've got 3 weeks before I get in my bomb shelter.
 
Griffin said:
I am amazed the way the market has shrugged off the inflation, the S&P 500 is up only about 2% for the year once you net inflation. For such a raging bull market, that is a big pill of reality the market is going to have to swallow at some point.

We are definitely trading dollar value away to gain a competitive edge in the foreign markets. I suspect that the Fed won't really start to bark until the dollar index gets below 80.0, then it will have to rate hike like the 80's to stem the inflation. If the dollar index hits a half century (or more) low, the market will probably take notice........."play til May then go away" - I've got 3 weeks before I get in my bomb shelter.
Click to expand...

Griffin,

I still think that the Feds next move will be to cut rates even if the USD falls below 80. Helicpoter Ben can bark all he wants but inflation has been above his "comfort zone" for how long now? And what about real inflation, including food and energy. And he hasn't done a thing. I think the Feds are really scarred about the economy.
 
350z,

I think you hit the nail on the head about why the market (and the Fed) has been able to shrug off the inflation bit. However, uncomfortable high inflation is 3-4% a year (like 2005 and 2006), not 3-4% a quarter (like we had in Q1). Rate cuts have been steadily getting built into the price of this market, but the year seems to be on track to hit the lower edge of the acceptable GDP range while inflation is marching off the charts.

Is it better to have 5% GDP and 3% inflation (2% net growth) or 7% GDP and 6% inflation (1% net growth)? Does this economy need stimulating with a rate cut? The market could eventually be spun to believe that a rate hike is better for the economy if we continue to see 3% a quarter inflation, it just means crossing the threshold of a "no rate hike" pullback. I'm ready to play it!:D

350zCommTech said:
Griffin,

I still think that the Feds next move will be to cut rates even if the USD falls below 80. Helicpoter Ben can bark all he wants but inflation has been above his "comfort zone" for how long now? And what about real inflation, including food and energy. And he hasn't done a thing. I think the Feds are really scarred about the economy.
Click to expand...
 
Griffin said:
350z,

However, uncomfortable high inflation is 3-4% a year (like 2005 and 2006), not 3-4% a quarter (like we had in Q1).
Click to expand...

I'm showing core PCI at .6% total in the Q1. Which inflation numbers were you referring to.

Is it better to have 5% GDP and 3% inflation (2% net growth) or 7% GDP and 6% inflation (1% net growth)? Does this economy need stimulating with a rate cut? The market could eventually be spun to believe that a rate hike is better for the economy if we continue to see 3% a quarter inflation, it just means crossing the threshold of a "no rate hike" pullback. I'm ready to play it!:D
Click to expand...

You are funny!!:D
 
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