FundSurfer account talk

[Griffin]

FS,

I was expecting the market to languish at support for most of the day and fall through later with the next real plunge coming tomorrrow. However, the buying appears to be weak and I expect more selling as the day progresses. By noon I expect us to be back in the serious red. If the later starts to look like reality, would you consider a buy? My quasi answer at the moment is - very possible.

What are you thinking?

 

[FundSurfer]

I think we a guessing at this point. Obviously we are at an inflection point and the market has to make up its mind which way to go. I expect today could have some back and forth and was surprised that the S-fund had not bounced like the S&P 500. Guess I should not be. I heard talking heads saying that there might be a rush to the security of the Big Caps. (Hats off to those that jumped into C-fund).

My head is telling me to be patient and to wait for a couple sideways to green days before getting back in the market. My heart is telling me that I should be estatic for having dodged the bullet and to get back into the market because the worst is probably over. I guess I'm on the fence for the moment. The market seems to be on the fence as well. I'm shooting for 11:30 as decision time. If I'm not sure at that point, I'll probaby sit on the sideline for another day. I think the chances of a V are slim.

Looks like no news is good news as far as Berny is concerned. He said nothing new and markets are bouncing right now.

 

[VirginiaBob]

being up 1.17% is being on the fence?

 

[Griffin]

I have to admit that emotion is creeping into my decision making process, I would really LIKE to catch a big bounce. I think your approach is reasonable, however, if the S&P500 can stay on top of 1410, I may slip into the S-fund for a day or two, just for giggles. I haven't had fun with TSP for awhile.

PS - You and I may be back near the top slots by the end of the week if we play this right.

 

[FundSurfer]

being up 1.17% is being on the fence?

It wasn't up that when I started writing.

 

[FundSurfer]

I have to admit that emotion is creeping into my decision making process, I would really LIKE to catch a big bounce. I think your approach is reasonable, however, if the S&P500 can stay on top of 1410, I may slip into the S-fund for a day or two, just for giggles. I haven't had fun with TSP for awhile.

PS - You and I may be back near the top slots by the end of the week if we play this right.

I'm beggining to agree with you seeing the action this morning. S-tommorrow and then a switch to I-fund the day following. I am considering hedging my bets and going with a diverse allocation. This action looks better than a dead cat bounce. S or I or both...

 

[FundSurfer]

This is what I get when I go against my plan and try to anticipate. I need to learn some major patience. My heart has messed me up again. We have a long way to go for the day.

If your reading the financial news this morning you'll see that comments about the Japanese carry trade have made things worse. It has people in the carry trade selling the stocks they bought with cheap Japanese money to pay back borrowed Yen before rates are raised. This is affecting many markets. Add to this that short selling by traders will make the drop worse. The short selling will probably mean that the market will pop back pretty good but we will see volitility for the next few days. Look at the chart following the May drop. We had a lot of volitility for weeks. This has me thinking about Teckno's old strategy of sell green days and buy red days when the market is this volitile. What happened to Tekno?

Anmyway, I'm thinking I'll wait and see where we go today. This feels a lot like May. Big drop, dead cat bounce (I bought here in May and bought here yesterday - you'd think I'd learn), followed by several more days of drop, then weeks of volitility. In May, I immediately sold after the dead cat became obvious and actually saved myself a couple percent. This time around, the initial sell-off was sharper than May. I should look at the good side in that I avoided the big drop.

Right now I'm undecided. I'm hoping that the dollar drops in reaction to the Yen increase and that softens the blow to the I-fund. I'm also in the S-fund which didn't bounce much yesterday so I'm hopeful it doesn't fall far. Long day ahead.....

 

[FundSurfer]

If you look at the charts I posted earlier, you'll notice some green dashed lines. Looks like the C&S may bounce off those lines. How much remains to be seen. There is a lot of "negative waves" out there right now which may make Joe 6-pack cash in some stock. The Big-Boys take notice of this kind of thing and act on it. I'm thinking any bounce off the resistance lines I've drawn will be small. The govexec article said a lot yesterday when they mentioned gov employees going to G-fund. Were those 12-13 thousand employees dumb money or smart money? I have to think that the average American hears about another big down day in Stocks and decides to take action and protect their assets from another "big" selloff.

I'm leaning toward buy red/sell green. Today looks red but I'm already in. May stay put another day.

 

[ATCJeff]

If you look at the charts I posted earlier, you'll notice some green dashed lines. Looks like the C&S may bounce off those lines. How much remains to be seen. There is a lot of "negative waves" out there right now which may make Joe 6-pack cash in some stock. The Big-Boys take notice of this kind of thing and act on it. I'm thinking any bounce off the resistance lines I've drawn will be small. The govexec article said a lot yesterday when they mentioned gov employees going to G-fund. Were those 12-13 thousand employees dumb money or smart money? I have to think that the average American hears about another big down day in Stocks and decides to take action and protect their assets from another "big" selloff.

I'm leaning toward buy red/sell green. Today looks red but I'm already in. May stay put another day.

Psychology of the market is changing. I would not call it fear, but I would say the avg. person would see uncertainty.

 

[Griffin]

I'm leaning toward buy red/sell green. Today looks red but I'm already in. May stay put another day.

This is the way May went.....everything looked good in the morning, the market would bounce off suport levels then it tanked in the afternoon. We even got a couple sucker rallies on the way down (which is what I thought we were attempting to play today....) are you thinking we have found the bottom?

 

[FundSurfer]

This is the way May went.....everything looked good in the morning, the market would bounce off suport levels then it tanked in the afternoon. We even got a couple sucker rallies on the way down (which is what I thought we were attempting to play today....) are you thinking we have found the bottom?

No, but we may have found a bounce point. Not sure how high. Or how playable it might be.

Looks like we are headed Green in at least the C-fund. Flight to safety?

I'm leaning toward staying for another day.

Should I stay or should I go now...

 

[FundSurfer]

If I stay there will be trouble...
If I go it will be double...

No IFT today...

 

[Griffin]

If I stay there will be trouble...
If I go it will be double...

No IFT today...

Today served to remind me why I need to avoid the "fun moves". After being in the G for the better part of two weeks, I just couldn't help myself, now that "that" is out of my system, I can humbly go back to the G and wait my time. You may be right about another day but don't stick around waiting for the market to prove you right. Your singing that tune already

Happy returns!

 

[FundSurfer]

Sorry for the delay, board is loading very slow today. I had to exit explorer and reload.

Anyway, I jumped to 40% G (tired of getting hammered in the I-fund), 30% C fund (this fund will benefit from flight to safety type trades and if another downer happens this will get hurt the least), and 30% S-fund (Overdue some relief).

I have to admit I thought about going 100% G but didn't because I could see a whipsaw possibility. There is the possibility that Mr Joe 6-pack reads the paper this weekend and puts in sell orders for Monday. Possible. I think the drop has been loud enough in the media that everyone knows what is happening.

I'm now thinking there will be a big selloff late today. Too late to avoid it. I'm hopeful that I doesn't get hit with negative FV.

I paid attention to the commentary which predicts the Yen will continue to strengthen. I see that very possible short term. This will continue to hammer ASIA stocks. This helps the i-fund by weakening the dollar but that hasn't been enought to stop the blood flow. I bailed out of the I-fund to fight another day.

I'm still kicking myself for not taking my own advice. Oh well. I'm still better off than I could have been.

 

[Tempest]

Today served to remind me why I need to avoid the "fun moves". After being in the G for the better part of two weeks, I just couldn't help myself, now that "that" is out of my system, I can humbly go back to the G and wait my time.

Happy returns!

Amen, Brother. Preach it.

 

[FundSurfer]

Kind of trapped. I'm in partially. We are in downward trend. It is hard to predict where this will stop. I think we are past the point where you jump to safety since you could end up getting whipsawed. I'll stay put for now.

At some point the free fall will end and we'll see a lot of volitility till a new pattern is formed. At that point I'll be buying red and selling green.

 

[FundSurfer]

Sold green today. I'm expecting chop in the market for a while. We'll retest these lows and probably go lower at some point. I don't see a "V" that Birchy has mentioned. Maybe that means it will occur, but I've got to go with what I think is most likely.

 

[Griffin]

I'm glad you said it about Birch's "V fear tactic". Big V's are rare, and if you miss some rebound because of one, oh well, over the year's it will benefit those who make it their policy to wait for the retest.

If I had played this correction like I did in May, I would have caught yesterday's rally and moved into the G. I was very happy with myself last May when I made that move, but it also caused me to get overconfident. In May (at this point) the market retested the low and did a head fake rebound. This is the point where I bought back in, only for the market to drop another 4% over the next two days.

The moral of the story (as both you and I know all to well) - it was much easier to avoid that loses early in the correction then it will be going forward. Now comes the hard part and it can be just as painful. I agree with your volatility statement. I am looking for my buy in point, and then I will hold through the minor fluctuations of the volatility. I hope the "Sell the Green, Buy the Red" approach works.

Sold green today. I'm expecting chop in the market for a while. We'll retest these lows and probably go lower at some point. I don't see a "V" that Birchy has mentioned. Maybe that means it will occur, but I've got to go with what I think is most likely.

 

[FundSurfer]

I hope the "Sell the Green, Buy the Red" approach works.

I guess I need to add, leave it alone if it is sideways. Some minimum amount before you jump. A couple of osscilations should help us anticipate. I'm thinking 0.5% would be a definite move at this point. May be more like a percent but we may not always be able to catch the percent at end of day. I saw Teckno work this angle very well, don't know if you remember him.

 

[Griffin]

I saw Teckno work this angle very well, don't know if you remember him.

Tecknobucks (along with Cowboy, Dakota and others) were the guys that got me interested in the message board. We've lost several good folks along the way. I like to believe they are still out there and will resurface at some point.

He did a great job of playing the volatility. In the past, I have attempted to emulate his strategy. I may join you on this venture, but I am still concerned that there is more room to the downside. The reaction to the Beige Book should provide us some indicator as to how the market will react to the Jobs report. I expect both to provide a certain amount of goldilocks optimisim. Will it be enough to offset the factory orders, consumer credit and inflationary reports (CPI, and PPI). Obviously, I am assuming that consumer credit, CPI and PPI come in inflationary.

Like I said, this is where it gets tricky.