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I'm anticipating a sell signal. For me that's several red/sideways days in a row. Looking at the charts we are at a cross roads. We are at the bottom of the short term channels and moving sideways. We could be at a big change in the market in for a big drop of we can bounce back up in the channel. The downside risk is greater than the upside for me plus the sell signal I use has me headed to the sidelines. I just hope I'm not a day late.

I may not be around the computer before noon so I had to make an early decidion today.
 
I'm on the road again. Won't be near a computer at noon. I think I'll stay on the sidelines. Right now S is down big and C down some. Too bad we don't have the option to short the I-fund cause I'd give that serious consideration. Hopefully my hotel will have internet but tonight I'll be watching the game.

I think Ohio St has the edge but I've got to root for UF and the SEC. I think the SEC is the best conference top to bottom (9 teams in bowls? wow). I hope it is a good game.
 
FundSurfer said:
I'm on the road again. Won't be near a computer at noon. I think I'll stay on the sidelines. Right now S is down big and C down some. Too bad we don't have the option to short the I-fund cause I'd give that serious consideration. Hopefully my hotel will have internet but tonight I'll be watching the game.

I think Ohio St has the edge but I've got to root for UF and the SEC. I think the SEC is the best conference top to bottom (9 teams in bowls? wow). I hope it is a good game.
Click to expand...

$DWCPF percent decline being shown on quote boards is incorrect. % decline is being figured from thursday's close
 
I tell ya work has got to quit interfering with tsptrading. I'm in the same boat. Big project at work and no time to check the markets.
 
FundSurfer,
Based on the charts you posted, both the C and the S fund seem to be closer to their lines of resistance than the I fund. At this time, the Nikkei is +265.95. Hopefully, OSM will follow the USM tomorrow and we could have a positive day for the I fund.
 
Fundsurfer,

Always appreciate your charts. Thanks. I'm uneasy also, the move up feel like an attempt by the bulls to keep the run going. Head fake maybe? I've been wrong before and should learn from it. LOL The FTSE reversely is astounding. Ya could have knocked me over with a feather when I saw it this evening. WoW!
 
Been too busy to post much lately... travel, family issues, new xbox 360 ... That last one is definitely going to impact my retirement. :) ...man it is amazing how far we have come from Atari...

Anyway, I've been watching the market and other than a couple one day set ups for the I-fund, I'm still cautious. The market seems to be changing direction and I'm wary. I've been tempted to jump back into the market with a diverse allocation but wanted to wait till after State of Union address. It would be nice to see a new trend emerge. Today might be a good day to go into the I-fund.
 
An unscheduled meeting kept me away till 12:15. I was on the fence so I'm not too broken up about it. This has just been one of those months for me so far.
 
I moved 50% back into the market. 30% into I fund since I agree with milkman that the dollar may see some selling thus lowering dollar value. Also the I-fund has see steady climb for quite awhile now. I moved 20% into the S-fund since I think it may reach support today and rebound next week. Obviously since I'm leaving 50% in G-fund I'm still cautious. Looking at the charts I can see potiential to be at a top. Since so many people are now saying the same thing does that make it less likely? Any drop from here will take charts below support and I'll get out quickly. Bouncing up and I may move more in the market.
 
20C, 40S, 40I. I'm increasing based on what I'm seeing. I'm feeling more comfortable with the new pattern. C is low in a new channel thus I added C. I-fund I expect a favorable reaction tommorrow to today (as long as it holds), and S-fund has been performing well and has a little growing room in its channel. I'll see if I can't post my charts a little later when I have more time.
 
I moved 1/2 to G. Why? Pure speculation. I'm moving on Tom's mentioning of the reversals following Fed announcements.
 
In my view, C&S are at the top of short term and mid-term channels -- big warning sign. The I-fund is in the middle of it's short term channel and above the long term channel. My trading philosophy/strategy is that because we can react fairly quickly we should ride the trends and wait for the market to tell us when to get out. My theory is that if you jump out following the beginning of a correction the amount you loose will be less than the amount you gained by being in the market a little longer. This is probably because of the bull market conditions we are currently in. Anyway, I look for a couple sideways/red days or one big red day as a signal to get out of the market when we have reached target (top of short term channel). Again this is a simplistic strategy, but it works. I've gone back over the last five years and would have done much better than I actually did had I stuck ridgedly to this plan. Part of me wants to go to 100% G. I've decided to stick with my 50 safe/50 stox setup for now.
 
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Thought I'd post my current graphs with channels.

C-fund seems to be at the top of a redirected channel. It has been moving laterally. I'm going to be moving out of C-fund tommorrow.

I'm not sure about the S-fund. It could be at the top of a new channel or could go back into the previous channel. Either way it has been going up and I'm going to hold onto S till it begins moving laterally or goes red.

The I-fund has been in this channel for a while. Seems to be moving in the right direction. I-fund is still in its channel and if anything it is toward the bottom of this channel.

I'm on the road and can't get online as much as I'd like. Certainly can't get online around decision time. Got to go with 50%G, 25%S, 25%I
 
Right now (as of 11 am EST) the C-fund is about back to center of channel going down -- wait to buy, the S-fund is down to my third lower parallel line which is a possible buy, and the I fund is to the bottom of its channel - buy. This channel has been strong since last August. The dollar is up right now about 0.3%.

I expect the OverSeas Markets to rebound and for the dollar to drop back down. The question for me is, will today or tommorrow be better to buy. If I saw a bunch of people jumping out of the I-fund I'd definitely buy thinking that I may be able to pull an S&S and benefit from a neagtive FV. Right now I see people sticking in the market.

It's nice to be back in the office today so I can wait a little to make my moves. Been on the road too much so far this year and it makes timing a little more difficult.
 
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