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Do you think the price of oil effects the value of the Dollar? If Oil is going down does the Dollar go up? Right now Oil is falling and the dollar is higher. I really don't see Oil changing direction today, but you never know!!!???:confused: Any thoughts?:cool:
 
nnuut said:
Do you think the price of oil effects the value of the Dollar? If Oil is going down does the Dollar go up? Right now Oil is falling and the dollar is higher. I really don't see Oil changing direction today, but you never know!!!???:confused: Any thoughts?:cool:
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Dollar down .30 today. I guess many things effect the Dollar? Today, Trade Gap!:o
Sorry for trashin' up your thread.
Norman
 
No problem Nnut. Yes oil does affect dollar but it is just one of many things. Also oil can affect in a couple of ways.

1. Oil price affects our trade deficit. Our deficit is so big that I'm not sure how much affect this has anymore. I used to watch the trade deficit reports but have found that they don't always move the dollar in the direction you would think.

2. Oil stability - this seems to have been having the biggest impact on the dollar lately. When Iran rattles their sabre it seems to move the dollar big time. When terrorist attack oil pipeline, this moves the dollar.

Other big affectors of the dollar - interest rates in US vs Europe vs UK vs Japan. Terrorist activity (dollar safehaven affect). US trade gap. Large dollar holders like China saying they are going to shift their dollar holdings and noise about creation of a Euro based oil trading platform.
 
Moved my 25% in G into S and I. Now at 40%S, 60%I. Just looking at the channels and those two look the best in terms of short term outlook.
 
As of 11:30 we are at the top of the C and the S. You could draw a channel that has the I-fund at the top as well. My I-fund chart channel is a little wider than that. A case could be made for jumping out today but I'm going to stay where I'm at. I'm looking for a couple of consecutive red or sideways days as a signal to get out at this point.
 
Looks like a potiential sideways day after a couple good up days. Looks like a reverse bounce may be in the making. i see a bunch of folks bailing ou to G-fund. Have to admit I'm considering it myself. I'm considering putting 50% on the sidelines.
 
Looking at the charts so far this morning, "V" shape, looks like markets will recover from a .4-.5% initial drop and go positive. This following a couple sideways/down days bodes well for the I-fund. The I fund had dropped a little and will likely have a sideways day today. US dollar did a similar V since Friday close and is currently up. I think the dollar will continue to trend up slowly for now. Since we just had a big pop in dollar, we might get a little reversal tommorrow or at least a pause. This fits my criteria for a short hop into the I-fund. The OSM following the US market and the dollar not set up to take away all gains. I'm leaning toward 100% I for tommorrow, but won't decide until 11:45.
 
With US markets dropping like a rock, I'm leaning toward heading to the sidelines. The dollar has dropped like a rock as well which has helped the I-fund but the drop can't continue. OSM is likely to follow the US down next week. Given that Iran has been found out of compliance (again) we should be hearing saber rattling any time now. That may shoot the dollar back up as people head for the safety of the dollar.

(I think I just talked myself into going to the G-fund)
 
Staying on the sidelines.

All the charts are at the top of short term channels. C+S have gone sideways or down 2+ days (Sell for me). I has gone up. I'd have done better not trying to anticipate and just stuck with my plan of waiting for the fund to tell me when to sell. I'm not jumping back in with I-fund at the top of a short term channel so I'll wait. If the stocks break trend and go above channels I may get back in, otherwise I'm waiting on a 1+% pullback before re-entry.
 
I'm not going to bet on a catchable bounce (one that we with our limited ability to get in and out can catch). Betting on a catchable bounce is very risky. I'm not desparate. I can wait for a day or two to see how this shakes out. The markets are already showing signs of picking back up. This can be programmed buying that people have set up to automatically buy on a pullback. Doesn't mean it will last.

If I was in the I-fund, I'd definitely bail out today. OSM tends to follow the US. In this case it lead the US but that does not mean it is done. The big boys may move out of more speculative foriegn stocks which could drive those markets down further.

C&S funds reached and then went below short term channel bottoms this morning. This is a buy signal; however, I delay buying till I see signs of support. I know I'd be much further ahead right now if I followed my own method. I've had a tendancy to try and anticipate in the past. The really aggressive side of me wants to jump into the market with a diverse allocation. I'm taking a deep breath and waiting. The main reason is that I know that if I was in the market, I'd be jumping out today. There is a reason for that. We are below resistance of the bottom of the channel. Let's make sure it can hold. I think it will but I'm going to wait and make sure.
 
Yes I like the idea of waiting to see if any of this support does hold also. I am already in G and would probably like to wait now to see where this downside plays out a bit.
 
Wolverine,

When you hedge your risk by waiting all you loose is opportunity. This market may rebound faster than it went down.
 
Birchtree...........Yep I get your point also. So new at this IFT stuff and this month has been a real eye opener for me and learning a bunch.

Thank you all
 
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