FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Was fortunate enough to miss most of this downturn and am currently parked in the G fund after locking in monthly gains over a week ago (up 3.3% for the month).

About to go back in on this bloodbath day, 100% S COB today.
 
Way to go on the 3.3% for the month, I was planning on getting out of the S fund on Friday, but didn't, that was a mistake given the carnage taking place today. I am seeking safety now by going 100% G COB today (last IFT of the month), to try and salvage a positive return for the month. Hopefully get back in at a lower price right before or right after the 4th of July.
 
djlc86 said:
Way to go on the 3.3% for the month, I was planning on getting out of the S fund on Friday, but didn't, that was a mistake given the carnage taking place today. I am seeking safety now by going 100% G COB today (last IFT of the month), to try and salvage a positive return for the month. Hopefully get back in at a lower price right before or right after the 4th of July.
Click to expand...

Good luck to you.

Worth reading Tom's summary this evening. There is a risk of giving in to fear and selling on big selloff days like this, as there are usually 3 scenarios, and 2 of them point to an up day the next day or so.

1) Things "oversell" on days like this (down over 1%) leading to at least some short-term buy back up days, often the following day. Thats usually a better time to sell, if you believe we are entering "Scenario 3".

2) Big selloff days are often near the bottom, or the bottom itself. Selling on those days only ensures one is "Buying High and Selling Low".

3) There is major structural damage to the markets, and this big down day is just the tip of the iceberg (5%-10% correction underway).
 
Was on vacation and didn't hear this till the other day.
Kudlow is considered by most financial movers & shakers to be the Economic "Voice of Reason" in DC.
This would indicate that his "Free-Trade" platform, which helped the market shoot up 8-12 percent from March thru our recent highs a few weeks ago, is no longer a driving force for the market, while he is recovering.
That explains a lot of the anxiety on Wall St recently.

US economic advisor Larry Kudlow in good condition following heart attack, White House says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/whi...kudlow-suffers-heart-attack-trump-tweets.html
 
The charts are starting to look very ugly.

Have a read on Tom's Latest Evening Summary, but VERY bearish signals abound, be it Bear Flags or Head & Shoulders patterns.
I am likely to cash in on my half percent monthly gains (and whatever today brings or takes away) and exit the S, for the safety of the G, until things look better.

(Update Edit) Officially using 1st IFT to Exit 100% S COB today and enter 100% G

Head and Shoulders on S&P (from Tom's analysis)

070518a.gif


Bear Flag on Small Caps (S)

070518b.gif
 
Last edited:
There are some small open gaps on those charts that could get filled first. Also, speaking of Oscar - in that other thread - he was the one who I learned about the H&S pattern being a continuation pattern at times. In a downtrending market an H&S pattern is bearish for sure, but if the market is in a rising trend, the neckline could hold and stocks move higher from there, making it a continuation pattern

The problem right now is it is debatable if the S&P is in a downtrend or not. The highs were made in January so technically, maybe. :)
 
With the -S- moving upwards right now, I'm hoping it shoots way up towards that gap by COB today (lol). :D

Interesting on that Head and Shoulders description of continuity vs downturn.
To me, I was also thinking of the Bear Flag on the S, and the geopolitical news coming in tomorrow regarding Chinese Tariff response.
I like Oscar, as one of several "tools" that I would use to make a move, not as an absolute, as his daily swings don't always work well with our 2 IFT limit.
 
Well, happier with my exit today (locking in nearly 1.5% for July with 1 IFT left) , the 3rd straight up day on the S this week, including today's sharp rise of nearly 1% on VERY low volume.
Seems we usually see a reversal of significant gains on holidays with low volume trading, once the crowd returns (probably Monday).
Here's S&P today with volume bars on bottom.

SP.jpg
 
Getting late in the month to hold onto 2 IFT's.
Used first one to lock in recent gains of the past few days, as given the recent (and normal seasonal) volatility, I feel fairly confident a better, lower price to by back in will present itself before the end of the month.
Then again...sometimes the train keeps on chugging upwards without you, and by the time it heads back down, its still above where you got off.
We'll see how this plays out, but I will try not to get greedy, a price just half percent below current levels would trigger me to buy back in, with a goal to beat the market in the month.
 
Using 1st October IFT to sell today's rally.
If recent history is correct, we should see new lows by Wed, in which case I might use 2nd IFT to jump back in...maybe??
 
Could be close enough to a bottom to re-position back into stocks.

Using last Oct IFT to get Leave G and get back into stocks. 50/50 C and I.
 
Well, jumping back into stocks by the end of October has paid dividends. Up over 3% for the month so far.
However, with the post election euphoria of Wall St embracing "gridlock" over, comes the sobering effect of the Fed (announcement later today).
Using 1st Nov IFT to lock in gains and hopefully get a better price in a few days. Selling 50% I and 50% C this morning and going 100% G by COB today.
 
FWM...You may have made the right call. Looks like fed speak was priced in, which leaves us looking at a stronger dollar and lower earnings (recent reports). So are we consolidating or creating a ceiling??? Either way makes me wish I had hedged on safety and gone to G today like you did. This could be it for the "pop" part....Hope the drop part doesn't come before I get out!

Have a great weekend all!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks hit critical moving average - climbing the wall of worry
Replies
0
Views
189
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
A dip as the China trade deal gets put together
Replies
0
Views
103
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bears show up, but the bulls didn't give up
Replies
0
Views
287
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
A high volume flat day for stocks to end May
Replies
0
Views
187
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A quiet day despite Powell testimony
Replies
1
Views
367
WorkFE
WorkFE
Back
Top