FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Feeling good now about locking in profits yesterday.

As always, the trick is "WHEN to get back in".
In my system (which I don't stick too often...sadly for me) it would get me back in today, locking in a better than 0.50% gain on the major indices for the month.

But it seems recently these downturns off the first bottom have a bit more amplitude, often testing the old bottom.
Tom, in his evening analysis, identified some open gaps that will probably get filled that might serve as a better "buy in point". (below).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Thought about jumping in today, and locking several percent gain on the market. Actually made the IFT, only to discover I was a few seconds too late, so I ended up cancelling it.
There is still another gap lower I believe, and that would test the previous lows...so maybe missing todays IFT was a blessing in disguise (lol).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With todays dropoff maybe it was good I missed yesterdays IFT to go back in. Now down 4-5 days, that's usually a good chance for at least a short turn uptick.

Jumped back in this morning, 50% C and 50% S, by COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Uh-Oh....Oscar not liking todays action on the charts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9onYDqIkjY

 

[Mcqlives]

I was just looking at that bear flag on the transports and then I saw your link to Oscar. I'm glad I'm still on the pad.

There is a lot of information there but, for those of you that don't watch these links very often, I highly recommend you watch this one. Even if you choose to stay in equities there is a lot of good intermediate term information given.

 

[weatherweenie]

Yep, I think we are going to retest the lows. Hopefully we don't make new lows. Not at all confident.

Uh-Oh....Oscar not liking todays action on the charts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9onYDqIkjY

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am with you on that WW! It's not looking good at all.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Wx Weannie and DA,

Regarding "testing the new low", I think we have gotten there today, this morning, in one fell swoop. (See S Fund Chart below)

In my "perfect world" we would hit this bottom intraday, and bounce off it during the last hour or 2, erasing at least half the loss, and start a new uptrend.
But...the world is never "perfect) lol. We'll see.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Good video (Thanks Norm).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRAljeChWDs

Interesting. Oscar making comparisons between now and 2008.
Seems every major crash into a Bear Market has its own catalysts.
2007-2009 was "Real Estate Bubble merged into Bank Near Collapse via Toxic Assets".
2000-2002 was "Tech Bubble merged with terror/war (2001-2002).
1973-74 Crash was "US removal of Gold Standard, Oil Crisis, causing Inflation/Stagflation and Political Uncertainty (Watergate).

So if we are at another precepise, are there any major factors of similar magnitude to the ones mentioned above?
How about "Massive Projected Deficits Forcing Fed to Fend Off Inflation by Raising Rates, Trade Wars, Political Turmoil (Russia Probe Heating Up)?
That...combined with the fact that this bull cycle has been ongoing for 9 years and we are already close to a natural peak?<br>

A look at history is good because those who forget the lessons taught by history are bound to repeat what those lessons taught us.

 

[tsptalk]

... Not to mention the corporate debt bubble.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/corporate-debt-bubble

So if we are at another precepise, are there any major factors of similar magnitude to the ones mentioned above?
How about "Massive Projected Deficits Forcing Fed to Fend Off Inflation by Raising Rates, Trade Wars, Political Turmoil (Russia Probe Heating Up)?
That...combined with the fact that this bull cycle has been ongoing for 9 years and we are already close to a natural peak?<br>

A look at history is good because those who forget the lessons taught by history are bound to repeat what those lessons taught us.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Fading this 2-3 day monster rally. Doesn't feel like the bottom yet especially given all the Washington uncertainty still in the air, and after watching CNBC's Fast Money's Carter Worth, he laid out some pretty good points on why there is likely more to go.

Using 1st Dec IFT to exit S and C funds, shifting all into F, COB today (Dec 28).

BTW, this is a Fibonacci Retracement I did a week ago on the S&P, based on medium term bottom and tops. Notice where we are now near 2487 around noon EST, piercing the 1st 2 levels with 2254 being the next.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

:worried::worried::worried:

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks! I almost bailed as well but missed the cutoff. I am even on recent trades now. (I went in on November 23 and got out on December 3 for about a 6% gain; went back in on the 12th for, as of now, about a 6% loss).

I wish I had made the change today as I would have, hopefully, gotten out with a little profit. Risk/reward is staying way to high for me and I would have bailed after the first 3-4% down if A) we had more moves and B) we hadn't been so close to Christmas. May wait till Wednesday to see if the Fibonacci pans out....

 

[Boghie]

Technical trading issues. That I do not know???

But, the private sector being concerned about this Gubmint Shutdown... Not so much... Bad for us as Gubmint workers, but bad for the economy? Why? This was not a smart move. The Trumpster will not play 'The Washington Monument Game'. The stuff that folks want or that needs to run will be there and funded.

 

[Boghie]

What if the Gubmint had a shutdown.
And, nobody cared.
:smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Boghie, your portfolio might care about the shutdown. You forgot to include 800,000 people not getting a paycheck, which could act like 800K jobs lost this month, which in turn effects monthly GDP. Other things that Trump obviously didn't think of, was in places like Florida where real estate flood approval plans are needed for real estate transactions, would not be available. Rubio is trying to get that portion put under essential. The markets are showing Global slowdown and economic uncertainty here in the US, and if the president and Congress are battling over their own government in terms of whether to keep it running, that throws much more uncertainty into Wall Street. No way the market goes up if this shutdown goes much past New Year's, no matter what one hears on the Rush Limbaugh show.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Interesting, and a little scary. Shows that the administration has no economic experts. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/28...ks-investors-for-advice-on-stock-markets.html

 

[nnuut]

Was involved in two shutdowns or more and always got paid for the time off the next payday after the shutdown, Free Vacation and paid for it, nobody is NOT getting paid.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Was involved in two shutdowns or more and always got paid for the time off the next payday after the shutdown, Free Vacation and paid for it, nobody is NOT getting paid.

Nnuut, nobody cares about government shutdowns unless the President has an R after their name...

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Interesting, and a little scary. Shows that the administration has no economic experts. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/28...ks-investors-for-advice-on-stock-markets.html

Only if you believe all anonymous sources ever quoted by CNBC.