FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Shifting more into defense, protecting 7% monthly gains.

Using 3rd January IFT to shift remaining S fund amounts into G (leaving other 50% intact in F fund).
 
Have waited on the sidelines too long. Will be wary that this a "dumb money" way to think, so this could be a short term trade, with 2 trades available this month (before this move).
Going in 50% S and 50% I as of COB Today. Was watching some analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg pointing out that Europe and Asia are poised to follow our breakout.

Also aware of the sky-high numbers in recent Sentiment Survey, and will be wary of any forming tops.
Next Fed meeting scheduled for end of month...which could lead to speculation of a rate hike if market and economy are booming, so am prepared to make this a short term trade if necessary.
 
Wary of staying in stocks too long, with VIX at multi-year lows, our Sentiment Survey sky high, and Fed meeting time.
Thought of leaving for G or F, but decided to stay in equities via I Fund. Fed announcement should not be as big an impact on them, as Europe and Asia monetary policy is more relaxed there.
We'll see.

Exited 50% S and 50% I position, and going 100% I COB today, into May.
 
In wake of trade talk uncertianties (which still have a week to go before anything happens or doesn't happen) coinciding with all-time highs, and very high Sentiment Survey levels, using 1st May IFT to seek shelter.

Leaving 100% I position and gong into 100% G COB today.
 
I don't think todays rally marks the end of the Trade War stock decline.:rolleyes:

From the article below:
"The Chinese government has struck a defiant tone since President Trump ratcheted up the trade war on Friday by raising tariffs on Chinese exports worth $200 billion a year. “If the U.S. wants to talk, our door is open,” said a commentary on state-controlled China Central Television on Monday night that quickly went viral. “If the U.S. wants to fight, we’ll be with them till the end.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
 
China needs us to buy from them, they are in a slow down, they have been having layoffs since last yr. we don't really need them. The President knows this.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/chinas-slowdown-is-starting-to-hit-where-it-hurts-employment/

The layoffs in the internet industry are visible, but the mass job losses in the manufacturing industry have not attracted enough attention. China’s manufacturing industry is sending out a series of worrying employment signals: Foxconn, the contract manufacturing giant, is reportedly set to cut 340,000 jobs worldwide and cut RMB 20 billion (around $3 billion) in spending in 2019. In November, a study of Tencent Technology found that Foxconn had less time for overtime work. According to a worker at Foxconn’s Shenzhen Guanlan Technology Park, the queue time for a meal was more than 20 minutes during the peak period of 130,000 to 140,000 workers in the factory last year; however, since the number of workers has been reduced to 70,000 to 80,000 recently, remaining employees don’t have to wait that long for a meal. “In the past, thousands of workers flowed in and out every day, but now, there are thousands of people leaving every day, but the factory is not hiring anymore,” the worker recounted.

And as new college graduates flock to the job market, the pressure on total employment will also increase. Lu Aihong, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said recently that the number of college graduates in 2019 is expected to be 8.34 million, an increase of 140,000 over the previous year.
 
China needs us to buy from them, they are in a slow down, they have been having layoffs since last yr. we don't really need them. The President knows this.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/chinas-slowdown-is-starting-to-hit-where-it-hurts-employment/

The layoffs in the internet industry are visible, but the mass job losses in the manufacturing industry have not attracted enough attention. China’s manufacturing industry is sending out a series of worrying employment signals: Foxconn, the contract manufacturing giant, is reportedly set to cut 340,000 jobs worldwide and cut RMB 20 billion (around $3 billion) in spending in 2019. In November, a study of Tencent Technology found that Foxconn had less time for overtime work. According to a worker at Foxconn’s Shenzhen Guanlan Technology Park, the queue time for a meal was more than 20 minutes during the peak period of 130,000 to 140,000 workers in the factory last year; however, since the number of workers has been reduced to 70,000 to 80,000 recently, remaining employees don’t have to wait that long for a meal. “In the past, thousands of workers flowed in and out every day, but now, there are thousands of people leaving every day, but the factory is not hiring anymore,” the worker recounted.

And as new college graduates flock to the job market, the pressure on total employment will also increase. Lu Aihong, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said recently that the number of college graduates in 2019 is expected to be 8.34 million, an increase of 140,000 over the previous year.

Well, I wasn't expressing an opinion. I was talking price, not politics.
Namely, that it is hard not to see more lower lows under the atmosphere that both sides are saying they will fight to the end, and niether are scheduled to meet for another month.

From an economic point of view, this move was 15-20 years overdue. But now with us at full employment, we don't have nearly enough people to fill a few million manufacturing jobs, unles we want to see a few million other jobs go away.
Or unless we want to bring in several million more immigrants to fill those jobs.
Food for thought.

In the meantime for investing purposes thru the next 2-3 weeks, I have a hard time seeing a surge back to recent highs.
 
Been contemplating what to do with last May IFT.
Sit in G?
Shift to F?
Roll the dice and catch the market in a bounce after a few down days.

Taking Option 3 (gulp). Shift from 100% G and go 50% C and 50% S COB today.
This is just a short term play thru tomorrow, or (hopefully) into early next week.
 
You can always go partial stocks (50/50, 25/75, etc) if you're not committed. Hedging with some F-fund could protect against any further downside in stocks.
 
Good Point Tom...if today started as a big up day, I would have used a 3rd monthly move to phase back into 50% G and 50% S, which we can do in a 3rd, 4th, or 5th monthly move.
Feel there is another leg (or more) down, just trying to be there for the next short trend upward.
 
Happy with my last IFT, entering stocks with a 50-50 split of S&C on May 31st.

After eating a 1% loss the last day of May, I am up close to 4% for June ( if current price action holds). Locking that in for now, with 1st June IFT shifting back to 100% G COB today.

It is rare to have the market continue going up more than 4-5 straight days of moderate to strong gains without some pullback.
Given trade uncertainties with Mexico and China, and stock gains on weak conomic data (poor jobs report) which usually serves as only a short-term stock boost to garner a future rate cut, I feel that there is a good chance to buy back into stocks at a lower price then now, sometime later next week, or later this month.

Good luck to everyone.
 
First question would be, how many people are participating in the survey compared to years past?

Second question is what do allocations on the tracker say? Per Ocean's List, nothing like the sentiment survey.
[TABLE="width: 80%"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 22%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]All members combined averages[/TD]
[TD="width: 9%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]Returns %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]G %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]F %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]C %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]S %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]I %[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]L2050[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]L2040[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]L2030[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]L2020[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #eeeeee, align: center"]Income[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 22%, bgcolor: #ecd672, align: center"] Total members: 1285[/TD]
[TD="width: 9%, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 10.34[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: C1CCFF, align: center"] 38.63[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: C1CCFF, align: center"] 6.68[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: C1CCFF, align: center"] 16.29[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: C1CCFF, align: center"] 27.76[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: C1CCFF, align: center"] 5.74[/TD]
[TD="width: 6, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 2.01[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 0.45[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 0.84[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 0.78[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, bgcolor: #e3e4fa, align: center"] 0.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Close to 50% invested in stocks currently, BUT remember the Sentiment is what you think will occur the following week. SO what were people invested in last week might be more relevant since thats when the vote was taken.
Also, people who are out of stocks (F,G) but are feeling left behind in the rally and want to jump in before its too late (the Dumb Money) often vote Bulllish even though they might still be in Safety. So I don't think dismising the SS based on current allocations is valid. IMHO

As for how many vote in Sentiment now compared to before, well I don't have those numbers (Tom probably does) but I have no reason to think its less, so probably more, given we have more members, thus a larger sample population.
 
Is this still a contrarian signal, bullish being bearish for stocks? Or, as CH pointed out some time ago, we may be more smart money than otherwise.
 
Is this still a contrarian signal, bullish being bearish for stocks? Or, as CH pointed out some time ago, we may be more smart money than otherwise.

Good question. I still think Bearish, but Ive noticed whenever we hit this very Bullish level lately (near or above 60), its usually 2 weeks later that the "Big Kibosh" happens, not so much the following week, which it was designed for.
Anyway, I am leaving safety and going from 100% G...into 50% C and 50% S COB today. Just a 1-3 day move probably, but we'll see.
 
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