ravensfan
Well-known member
Full steam ahead...famous last words of the Captain of the Titanic...:worried:
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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
Full steam ahead...famous last words of the Captain of the Titanic...:worried:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, seems the only thing I got right with this move was "Famous Last Words-Gulp". :Flush:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Having recovered nearly all of the losses of last week (in the C fund), I have used 1st Oct IFT to get back into Safety, and wait for a lower price to get back in.
PivotBoss video confirmed my thoughts that we might be hitting resistance and choping (at least briefly) back down.
Leaving 100% C position COB tday and going 100% G.
PivotBoss video confirmed my thoughts that we might be hitting resistance and choping (at least briefly) back down.
Leaving 100% C position COB tday and going 100% G.
Frank Ochoa? Thanks for the tip. What I am quickly learning in all of this is typically; it is either heading UP or it is going DOWN
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Interesting S&P 500 chart analysis from Rob Mareno, as told by Jim Cramer on Mad Money.
Buckle your seatbelts....could be a wild ride (down).
Buckle your seatbelts....could be a wild ride (down).
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Used 2nd Oct IFT to leave safety and go back into stocks. I'm not crazy over where the market is now, and am prepared to exit Nov 1st if its a decent Up day.
Leaving 100% G and going 100% S COB today.
Leaving 100% G and going 100% S COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Yes, actually with over 1.2% in the bank so far today (S Fund), I might sell today since we're at all time highs, and buy back in at a better price before months end.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After going into the S fund COB yesterday, I think I will be making another IFT 24 hrs later, 1st Nov move back to safety in the G.
S fund up over 1% so far, so just in general, locking in a 1% gain, with another move available back into stocks, is almost always a good deal.
But a few other things...VIX is nearing year long lows, so complacency is high.
And some chartists are predicting that the SP is at critical levels that could lead to a significant breakdown (below, from about a week ago).
[video]https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/10/21/this-bearish-scenario-in-the-sp-500-is-on-the-table-says-jim-cramer.html[/video]
So with the "One hand on the fruit is better than two hands in the bush" philosophy, I will take my +1.2% gain for Nov (if market holds) and run, for now, but be on the lookout for a lower price in the next 4 weeks to buy back in.
Leaving 100% S and going 100% G COB today.
S fund up over 1% so far, so just in general, locking in a 1% gain, with another move available back into stocks, is almost always a good deal.
But a few other things...VIX is nearing year long lows, so complacency is high.
And some chartists are predicting that the SP is at critical levels that could lead to a significant breakdown (below, from about a week ago).
[video]https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/10/21/this-bearish-scenario-in-the-sp-500-is-on-the-table-says-jim-cramer.html[/video]
So with the "One hand on the fruit is better than two hands in the bush" philosophy, I will take my +1.2% gain for Nov (if market holds) and run, for now, but be on the lookout for a lower price in the next 4 weeks to buy back in.
Leaving 100% S and going 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Not trusting China Deal, using 1st IFT to briefly exit from S and into G.
I've seen this movie before, seems to end badly.
I've seen this movie before, seems to end badly.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Figures,
Just now China and US announce Phase 1 deal that includes eliminating Tariffs.
https://news.yahoo.com/china-says-agreed-phase-one-153335991.html
Well, hopefully We'll get a big pop in stocks these last 3 hours to lock in.
Will look to get back in on the first down day next week.
Agree. Tariffs being lifted is a big thing, but this is the same deal we had on the table in October, and as I mentioned in today's commentary, that was 2000 Dow points ago.
My question is, how many more Dow points is the deal worth - or has it been priced in? A sell the news reaction is very possible but here we are heading into the strongest seasonal period of the year so it's not an easy call whichever way you go.
My question is, how many more Dow points is the deal worth - or has it been priced in? A sell the news reaction is very possible but here we are heading into the strongest seasonal period of the year so it's not an easy call whichever way you go.
Not only seasonal strength but the Fed also this week said that they are on a glide path on no hikes even if inflation does creep up and that they are ramping up the repo ops even more before the end of the year. Yes I know they say that doesn't affect anything but since their announcement late September the market has gained as you said 2000 points so I believe some how it does.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
2nd down day in a row for the S, so plan on using 2nd Dec IFT to leave G Lillypad and head back into the S fund.
We've had a good "melt-up" the past 2 weeks, and since most money managers are still on vacation, feel this is little more than small scale profit taking. VIX was trending slightly upward the past few days, then jumped 9% this morning.
It will be interesting to see how major fund managers position themselves in early January, but at this point. I'll play the odds and go back in, after 2 down days that shaved 1% off the S fund.
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% G and go 100% S COB today.
Good luck to everyone this New Year!
We've had a good "melt-up" the past 2 weeks, and since most money managers are still on vacation, feel this is little more than small scale profit taking. VIX was trending slightly upward the past few days, then jumped 9% this morning.
It will be interesting to see how major fund managers position themselves in early January, but at this point. I'll play the odds and go back in, after 2 down days that shaved 1% off the S fund.
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% G and go 100% S COB today.
Good luck to everyone this New Year!
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Entered the New Year in the S fund, enjoying the X-mas rally, but euphoria seems so high (as is our Sentiment Survey) that I don't feel good about it.
I've seen some hefty January drops the past decade when everyone thinks stocks will just keep going up.
Using 1st IFT to leave S and go into safety (100% G). Bull market seems still intact, just want to exit near all-time highs and buy back into a lower price in the coming days, weeks if we get a 2-3% pullback.
I've seen some hefty January drops the past decade when everyone thinks stocks will just keep going up.
Using 1st IFT to leave S and go into safety (100% G). Bull market seems still intact, just want to exit near all-time highs and buy back into a lower price in the coming days, weeks if we get a 2-3% pullback.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Todays action should put me ahead of the S fund for the month, with a 2nd "lower low" indicated by red point on chart below. (Maybe, as we never know if there will be an afternoon snap back rally).
Using 2nd Jan IFT to leave 100% G position and go 100% S COB today.
Using 2nd Jan IFT to leave 100% G position and go 100% S COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Latest move sent me from the 700's in the Tracker up to near the top in the past week. Patience (waiting for the late January dip) paid off.
Now with 2 strong up days, trying not to get too greedy. Seems unlikely to see new highs right away given CoronaVirus uncertainties...and possible bear flag on major indices...so will lock in +3% for Feb and use 1st Feb IFT to sell 100% S and go back into 100% G COB today.
Now with 2 strong up days, trying not to get too greedy. Seems unlikely to see new highs right away given CoronaVirus uncertainties...and possible bear flag on major indices...so will lock in +3% for Feb and use 1st Feb IFT to sell 100% S and go back into 100% G COB today.
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