FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

So far, the charting technical's have been "classic".

First a massive 8-10% falling knife drop...then the typical choppy upward "Bear Flag" that served as a classic "Dead Cat Bounce", followed by another leg down that was almost as impressive as the first.

Now will have to see if this is either the (A) Bottom...or (B) another Bear Flag formation, where a quick but HIGHLY RISKY "In and Out" could earn you a quick 2-4%...but likely followed by another leg down.

The unknowns are how many days we'll have in the Bear Flag (you guessed, I'm assuming its the latter), the way to do it is to wait for a down day thru noon, then shift $$ into stocks if its looking 2-3% down but still within the flag, and then if the market is up big the following day, exit again and run to the hills.

Will consider this tomorrow, but would consider it more if it were the last week of the month, since I can only move back into the G, and I still feel that staying longer in the F for the next 2 weeks will yield more than the few pennies the G fund gives these days.

 

[nasa1974]

A really good, detailed analysis from one of the top financial analysts in the country.

Interesting video. But is anybody listening?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With only one move left, have some decisions to make.
F fund dropped 1.5% yesterday, and despite stocks being down big, its falling again. Perhaps those low bond prices are now catching up to the masses who first flocked to it and drove its prices up.
Part of me wants to go into the G fund and ride this out, but my system is strongly telling me to go back into stocks, being ahead of the C and S fund by 12-15% if current prices hold
Being that we seem to be "chopping" into another flag, I am tempted to risk going into stocks now, on a sharp down day, to see if I can get a positive chop tomorrow, then get out into the G for the rest of the month (maybe),
or stick to my system, which says if we're past this crisis 3-5 months from now, then it would be a huge winning move. Will decide in the next 23 minutes.

 

[Mcqlives]

FWIW. A lot of those talking heads calling for another 10-20% drop were very bullish just a few weeks ago.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

In trying to get out of the F and not waste a move (we always have a safety move back to G), I'm going in on a (hopefully) huge down day.
Leaving 100% F and going into 100% C COB Today,
Hoping to catch the seemingly normal 2-4% upswings in the choppy flag formations (see below chart), and then will make another decision whether to stay put, or head for the hills (G-fund) for the rest of March.
Good luck everyone.

 

[ToddB]

Yeah I went from 100% C to 100% F yesterday which worked out pretty good to get out!
today I am migrating to the G fund and hoping to get a little lift at the end of the day.


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[FireWeatherMet]

In trying to get out of the F and not waste a move (we always have a safety move back to G), I'm going in on a (hopefully) huge down day.
Leaving 100% F and going into 100% C COB Today,
Hoping to catch the seemingly normal 2-4% upswings in the choppy flag formations (see below chart), and then will make another decision whether to stay put, or head for the hills (G-fund) for the rest of March.
Good luck everyone.

View attachment 45658

Well, that tactic went over like a lead balloon. lol
Was right on the 2nd Bear Flag but instead of the bear Flag continuing for a few more days like previously it was a quick flag-pole free-fall to a lower leg.
The only thing that prevented me from just getting out today and staying 10-15% ahead of the stock funds, is that this downward leg is about as long as the previous 2 legs, all of which has at least 1-2 big up days, before falling again. I didn't want to sell at a panic short term bottom. But I plan on getting out tomorrow if we jump higher.

I have no illusions of being near our final bottom by the end of March. I'm thinking a total downturn of 60% (like 2008-09 and 2000-2002) appears likely...but at a much faster rate.
I'm sure there will be a decent but temporary 10-20% retracement once new cases peak later this spring, but thats still way off. And gov't response has been inept at best....so don't see any help from WH, Congress, or FED mattering much here. Its about the virus and steady shutdown of our economic engine...Consumer Spending.
Good luck all.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, staying put and not selling in yesterday panic may pay off a little.
Taking whatever gains the market gives today, and running to the hills for the rest of the month.
Leaving 100% C and going into 100% G COB Today.
See you guys in April...maybe. lol

 

[FireWeatherMet]

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

 

[quabit]

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

Looks like we make back just shy of yesterdays loss. I'm think that's requires a double

 

[Rod]

WHEW!!!
Keeping a cool head and not selling yesterday paying off better than I imagined.
Lost over 9% yesterday, but gained over 9% back today...putting me positive for the month of March...and cashing those chips in as I check into the "G-Hotel" for the rest of the month.

I'm happy for you! :fing02:

Now, don't get lured off of the Lily Pad any time soon! You are now positive. Therefore, be extremely careful attempting to catch any bounce or you just might find yourself sunk again.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Some grim numbers regarding the average and more importantly, the median 401K balances nationwide, by age group.
And this was in January, BEFORE the crash.

https://www.thestreet.com/retirement/401k/average-401k-balance?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Thinking of gong back into stocks today. Thinking semi V shape recovery...but probably not reaching new highs anytime soon.
Have about 8 minutes to pull the trigger, trying to decide if it will be S, C, I or a combo.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Leaving 100% G and going in 50% S, 25% C and 25% I COB today.

News Factors:
Gilead had successful clinical run of treating patients with "Moderate" COVID last week...their results of clinical trial test of "Severe" COVID patients will be announced in about a week.
Congress getting ready to pass a few more hundred BILLION in Small Business aid this week.
Daily Deaths in US of COVID dropping off significantly the past 3 days, as are new cases, esp in NYC.
Some states opening up some businesses today, others on May 1 (11 days away) others on May 15th. Some European countries and Japan opening up also.
A European Rx company says it is hoping to have a vaccine ready by September...they're getting ready to have mass production in place now, so that if final tests are conclusive by September, they can start making millions of doses right away.

With all these things coming up, I don't see an immediate catalyst to knock stocks back down too far, other than a 1-2 day drop...but nothing to new lows.
So with us only having 8 trading days left in April after today...with stocks negative to neutral as of noon EDT...I thought this was as good a time as any to go in.

 

[Whipsaw]

And an important study out of Stanford indicates much wider spread with little to no symptoms and a resultant mortality rate of ~0.12 - 0.2%, very much the same as the seasonal flu.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...dy-covid-cases-widespread-santa-clara-county/

 

[FireWeatherMet]

And an important study out of Stanford indicates much wider spread with little to no symptoms and a resultant mortality rate of ~0.12 - 0.2%, very much the same as the seasonal flu.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...dy-covid-cases-widespread-santa-clara-county/

Yes I saw that study. It would be interesting, and good news if verified nationally and globally. "Herd" immunity may be already happening, making a vaccine moot by next flu season.

The one danger I often see, when people try to compare COVID to the regular flue, is we don't know how many "silent carriers" are with the flu because we do NOT test for who has antibodies for it, mainly because so many Americans get flu shots, most of us have it.

The one thing researchers have found, is that COVID-19 is both more contagious, and its symptoms and duration much more severe than the regular flu. We've only had it in widespread numbers the last 5 weeks, missing out 80% of the traditional flu season, and we've already exceeded the normal fatality total numbers of the regular flu (42,000+ dead). and thats WITH national lockdown/shutdown quarantines in place.
What would the total deaths be if this thing came out at the start of flu season (October) and was in full force Dec-Jan-Feb, AND we had NO lockdown/shutdowns in place, just like regular flu seasons.

Thats why I don't pay much attention to anything that tries to say its like the "regular flu". But I do hope the study is correct, regarding number of silent carriers.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 2nd April IFT to just do some minor hoesekeeping, in terms of staying fully invested.
Changed previous allocation of 50% S...25% C...25% I, which if todays numbers hold, should give a profit of near 6% for the month of April AND put me positive for the year...and going full 100% S COB today, as that continues to have the hot hand, is a bit behind the C fund from resistance targets.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

1st May IFT shifting from 100% S...into 100% G COB today.
Locking in 2.84% May profits (plus or minues whatever today brings) and return to positive YTD (hopefully)...will wait for a lower price to possibly jump back in shortly...but I don't know how much higher this can go....don't want to be a "Pig that gets slaughtered".

 

[FireWeatherMet]

1st May IFT shifting from 100% S...into 100% G COB today.
Locking in 2.84% May profits (plus or minues whatever today brings) and return to positive YTD (hopefully)...will wait for a lower price to possibly jump back in shortly...but I don't know how much higher this can go....don't want to be a "Pig that gets slaughtered".

Whew!!! :chairfall:

Good technical AND economical philosophical discussion from PivotPoint.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Funny on how most of the financial channels I'm seeing the indices charts "stretched out" like the S&P on the bottom of below image.
But off our quick look charts, it appears to very clearly be a high amplitude crowning top forming on all the major indices (C and S fund charts shown on top, side-by side). Namely near the 200 Day Exponential Moving Averages

Me thinks...Look Out Below!