FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Whipsaw said:
FWM, what are the vids? Can't get there from here... is there an upshot?
Click to expand...

Cramer, using a chartist Carolyn Borodin (we does very nice Fibonacci analysis) says we could break either way, up or down and either one could be big. He's leaning to the upside, and today's action seems to support that, but we'll see.
 
Always keeping an open mind....what looked like a possible top last week, is now looking like a breakout. (see chart below)
Never under-estimate the power of "Irrational Exuberance", despite 40 million out of work and unemployment the worst since the Great Depression, there is the growing belief (right or wrong) that we are out of it.
I don't think thats the case at all...and normally I would not be thinking of going in, but with another free move and only 3 trading days left in the month, I might go back in, at least for a little bit.

Fighting the "Opening of the States" AND the FED may not be a good tactic, unless the opening fails, or future jobs numbers show millions not being rehired.
Considering going into stocks (not sure which fund yet) by todays deadline.

SP.jpg
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Always keeping an open mind....what looked like a possible top last week, is now looking like a breakout. (see chart below)
Never under-estimate the power of "Irrational Exuberance", despite 40 million out of work and unemployment the worst since the Great Depression, there is the growing belief (right or wrong) that we are out of it.
I don't think thats the case at all...and normally I would not be thinking of going in, but with another free move and only 3 trading days left in the month, I might go back in, at least for a little bit.

Fighting the "Opening of the States" AND the FED may not be a good tactic, unless the opening fails, or future jobs numbers show millions not being rehired.
Considering going into stocks (not sure which fund yet) by todays deadline.

View attachment 46228
Click to expand...

Did exit 100% G and went in 100% S by COB Today. 2nd May IFT.
 
Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.
Click to expand...

Good luck! I wonder if there will be that usual 1500 DWCPF dump. Usually seems to come around that time when it is trading above 1%.
 
Update to previous post:

Ordinarily I hate making a move on the 1st of the month, but given the overly bullish sentiment on our SS, and a huge surge in the S fund today possibly giving me a 1%+ lock in for the month, with another chance to buy back in, I will leave the S and go into full G mode temporarily.

Leaving 100% S and moving into 100% G COB today.

Sentiment Survey shot upwards with its most Bullish (i.e. Bearish) readings (by far) since February, before the Pandemic.

Sentiment.jpg

Indices (especially S Fund) are at recent highs, with the S especially overextended it seems.
2 good sized open gaps below on both the C (approx 3 and 6% below) and S (approx 4 and 10% below).

Gaps.jpg

While everyone on TV and YouTube video seems to be bullish OUR TSPTalk "Smart Money" folks at the top of our standings have become increasingly bearish lately.
More than half of our super gainers this year, who bravely rode the stock train from the March lows, have gotten off the train.

SmartMoney.jpg

And to top it off...if my "theory" holds true...there should be some sort of tweet or outlandish statement made this week, that takes indices back to those delicious open gaps in "short-order", lol.
 
What a market where one day pullbacks are considered opportunities. Crazy. :)

Good luck!
 
tsptalk said:
What a market where one day pullbacks are considered opportunities. Crazy. :)

Good luck!
Click to expand...

I know, LOL! So far this rally since March has not had more than a 1-2 day pullback, before going higher. Not much time for me to admit a wrong move (getting out in early June).
Since the Nasdaq reached new highs first, it serves to reason that the S&P and Small Caps will follow.

I had a semi-sinking feeling that we could drop another 2-3% to fill some open gaps, and that the Fed Meeting could be the catalyst for it...but there's an equal chance the Fed gives a dovish message and we shoot higher.
A good CNBC analyst who was bullish since April...said "Don't fight this rally...it will go higher as the economy opens up...unless (or until) the economy is forced to shut back down again".
And with the Fed pumping in several TRILLION...it really stands to reason for us to NOT FIGHT THE REOPENING AND THE FED (for now).
 
FireWeatherMet said:
A good CNBC analyst who was bullish since April...said "Don't fight this rally...it will go higher as the economy opens up...unless (or until) the economy is forced to shut back down again".
Click to expand...

The above has been my guiding light the past few months, and has kept me well above the indices so far this year.
But 2 weeks ago...COVID cases started going up in nearly half the states (way more than the added testing BS excuse).
Now, hospitalizations are starting to go up in most of those states. Thats what medical scientists said would happen.
Beijing just had to go into shutdown mode again.
Things getting worse in the middle of summer is NOT what the market was banking on during the rally of the past 3 months.

I could be wrong...or maybe I'm right but my timing is off. So with that uncertainty, I'll bank whatever I make today in the S fund, and take half off the table.
Leaving 100% S position and going 50% G and 50% S COB today.
 
FWM... I do value your thoughts and insights, but their value quickly diminishes after 1200! :cheesy: Have a great weekend! :D
 
I have been meaning to ask/comment, about the timing of your posts, FWM. I wasn't sure if you were trying to post them so others would not be able to copy your moves.

Whipsaw said:
FWM... I do value your thoughts and insights, but their value quickly diminishes after 1200! :cheesy: Have a great weekend! :D
Click to expand...
 
COVID Cases rising sharply in over 20 states, including big ones like Florida, Texas and California...casting doubt on success of re-opening.
Dow Transports down over 1% this morning.
Stacks flat to slightly up.

I'm cashing in today and leaving my 50% S and 50% G position and going 100% G COB today.
See you all in July.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

russ24567
Russ24567's Account Talk
Replies
1
Views
96
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
No follow through on Monday
Replies
0
Views
159
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Choppy day for stocks but bulls prevail again
Replies
1
Views
86
JTH
JTH
tsptalk
  • Article Article
S&P 500 down for 5th straight day heading into Powell's speech
Replies
0
Views
154
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks hit critical moving average - climbing the wall of worry
Replies
0
Views
267
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top