FireWeatherMet Account Talk

After a very strong, seemingly slightly overextended push in the S&P, there is temptation to briefly lock in profits and wait for a lower price top buy back in.
VIX dropping to near 1 year lows this morning (close to April 1st 1 year low) confirming this.
F looks possibly like a bear flag (per Tom's discussion) but possibly breaking out in short term so in going to safety I will split my assets into 50% G and 50% F COB today, and hope most of the S&P correction doesn't occur the next few hours-lol.
 
Not saying the world is gonna end, since we've got Trillions being pumped into the economy, but...Small Caps chart looking scary when taking a look from a longer perspective.

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Have been out of stocks since April 7th, 5 weeks is a long time when ones system is to be in stocks...and only briefly drop out of the market for 1-4 days a month at most...to make a quick gain on the major indices.

So I have been patiently waiting, since April 7th, when I was up on C by about 1% and up on the S by about 2%.
Well...on April 7th we had been up for a bit, looking slightly over-extended, but lo and behold we just kept going higher, before churning sideways a bit.

Have been waiting for this sell-off for quite some time...had to make a decision this morning whether to wait (as I feel this inflation worry story isn't quite over yet) or get back in, as my system demands, since if things close near their current levels, I'll still be 1% above the C for the year, but over 4% above the S.
Monster move up in the VIX today, near 20% up today..and up approx 50% in the past 3 days!

So...with 2 minutes before EFT deadline, I pressed the button and went from my former position of 50% F and 50% G...into 50% C and 50% S.
Being 1% above the C and 4% above the S seems like a good holding position, until the next opportunity to catch an overextended rally later this year, and try to briefly sidestep and make another slight gain on the indices.

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Toying with the idea of doing some "Window Dressing" with last remaining IFT.
Currently holding in 50/50 C & S....while Ahead of C fund by 2.39% and ahead of S by 5.41%.
The goal is to finish ahead of all the funds, and the C, being top fund for the month and year, is the closest threat to that.
Might go 100% C...we'll "See".

***UPDATE*** Did IFT out of 50/50 C & S...into 100% C COB today.
 
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VIX has quietly dropped to new 1 year+ lows.
Sitting 3% above both C and S funds for the year...don't really want to make a (brief) move to safety unless there is a clear topping pattern and better opportunity to gain more off the stock funds...but will start watching more closely.

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Doing some End of Month "window Dressing"...leaving my 100% C position and shifting to 100% S COB Today.
Stocks on both S&P and Small Caps at new highs and in a breakout pattern, and given there's only 4 trading days left in June, I don't mind using my 2nd IFT at this point...even if there is a need to get out, I don't envision needing to do that and buy back in until July anyway.
Have been losing a bit of ground in the annual standings, due to staying in the -C-, which was the "Fund Du Jour" up until a month ago, when $$ started shifting back into Tech and Small Caps.
S Fund outperforming the C fund by nearly 1% for the year...my system is to stay above the best fund, using a partial "Last Month Best Fund" process.
 
Seems my "Window dressing" of choosing C or S continues to backfire...The Small Caps have fallen significantly compared to the S&P...as has my position in the standings out of the top 25 and down into the 60's on the Tracker.
Using the C-fund chart as a possible indicator that we might be a bit over-extended in our rising channel (below chart)...which would let me (hopefully) profit from my exit and be able to buy in at a lower price.
Given how the C and S tend to trade places every 2 weeks or so as the "Fund Du Jour", I think that going in 50/50 might be a better bet.
So for now, using 1st July IFT to exit my horrible 100% S allocation and go 100% G COB Today.

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Whew! Move to drop out of stocks and into safety last week (see way down bottom) paid off bigtime...even before todays "Wooosh" toilet flush.
If stocks close near current levels, I should end up ahead of all indices (+0.50% on C and +5.0% on S). Normally I would get in this morning, which is what my system is calling for...but holding off for now, for 2 reasons.

1) Looking at SP chart, the 50 Day MA has been a good barometer of brief pullbacks. However we have not hit the 100 Day MA solidly since last fall...8 months of not touching the 100 day is a long time so we're way overdue.

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2) The reason for this downturn...was what I was fearing the past several months...news that COVID is back again in enough magnitude to limit the "Full Reopening" that markets have been pricing in for months.
We can look at a 2nd chart of New COVID cases and hospitalizations nation-wide...thanks to the Delta Variant which is making up most new cases now, primarlily the unvaxed...but asymptomatic infections are occurring even in some vaccinated folks albeit almost none severe (GET FRIGGEN VACCINATED PEOPLE)!!
New Cases +140% increase...New Deaths +33% increase in just past 2 weeks, and those numbers look to be steadily climbing on the "charts". This threatens the whole "Re-opening Trade"...so will wait just a bit more before going back into stocks.

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Seems my "Window dressing" of choosing C or S continues to backfire...The Small Caps have fallen significantly compared to the S&P...as has my position in the standings out of the top 25 and down into the 60's on the Tracker.
Using the C-fund chart as a possible indicator that we might be a bit over-extended in our rising channel (below chart)...which would let me (hopefully) profit from my exit and be able to buy in at a lower price.
Given how the C and S tend to trade places every 2 weeks or so as the "Fund Du Jour", I think that going in 50/50 might be a better bet.
So for now, using 1st July IFT to exit my horrible 100% S allocation and go 100% G COB Today.

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Gotta thank certain media outlets for actively telling people to NOT get vaccinated. Pure evil.

Whew! Move to drop out of stocks and into safety last week (see way down bottom) paid off bigtime...even before todays "Wooosh" toilet flush.
If stocks close near current levels, I should end up ahead of all indices (+0.50% on C and +5.0% on S). Normally I would get in this morning, which is what my system is calling for...but holding off for now, for 2 reasons.

1) Looking at SP chart, the 50 Day MA has been a good barometer of brief pullbacks. However we have not hit the 100 Day MA solidly since last fall...8 months of not touching the 100 day is a long time so we're way overdue.

View attachment 49991

2) The reason for this downturn...was what I was fearing the past several months...news that COVID is back again in enough magnitude to limit the "Full Reopening" that markets have been pricing in for months.
We can look at a 2nd chart of New COVID cases and hospitalizations nation-wide...thanks to the Delta Variant which is making up most new cases now, primarlily the unvaxed...but asymptomatic infections are occurring even in some vaccinated folks albeit almost none severe (GET FRIGGEN VACCINATED PEOPLE)!!
New Cases +140% increase...New Deaths +33% increase in just past 2 weeks, and those numbers look to be steadily climbing on the "charts". This threatens the whole "Re-opening Trade"...so will wait just a bit more before going back into stocks.

View attachment 49992
 
I've seen at worst news outlets encourage free choice. Trump say you should get it but make up your own mind. I don't see the big deal.. Get the vaccine, you are safe.
 
Why I'm OK sitting on the G-Lilly pad with my 15%

Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters

https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?siteid=yhoof2

"The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount."
"Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July."
"Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations."
 

"Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July."

I am not saying there isn't a slowdown as a result of increased COVID concerns but air travel does typically peak in July/early August. Once the kids start back to school, travel generally dips until Thanksgiving/Winter break. Stay safe!
 
Have been in safety since mid July, waiting for a big drop to the 100 day EMA, but the last few drops have been consistent to what we've seen all year, basically just down to the 50 day EMA, before making an abrupt U-turn higher.
The "rounded top" gives me a bit of worry, as does the seasonality of September, but for now, I'll roll back all in with my 1st Sep IFT (50/50 mixed in C and S), but will try to stay nimble in case this fall is finally the start of something bigger.

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