FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[Epic]

Understood. I'm trying to learn to be more cautions and conservative with my account. It used to be different, but I need to re-train my way of looking at things.
If we had more than only 2 moves a month (which is moronic), I would have bailed today to re-enter next week maybe, but that's not the case unfortunately. TSP move limits suck.
Yeah, Facebook and PayPal both tanked......lol. I didn't hold either, so no direct affect, but it did drag on the rest of the market.
I'll be watching to see what you do tomorrow. I may be right behind you.... Thanks ! ! ! ! !

 

[Guest]

If you have a brokerage account, you can buy inverse ETF's. T​he ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) delivers -3x daily returns of the S&P 500. If the index drops by $1, the value of this ETF will rise by roughly $3. And hedge the days or weeks you think market may be bad. I do this since we only have 2 moves with TSP.. Also can buy puts on SPY to hedge on losses in C Fund. TSP really has to change there ways.

I don't want to go to G fund cause I really do think next week could be a good week. So I'm just looking to break even next few days.

 

[Epic]

Yeah, I also feel like next week could be an up week, even if just slightly. The recent earnings reports dragged everything down today, but it may do an end of day push to get back to the open and break even at least. Hoping. :dunno:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

As I was saying last week, there was a potential resistance point on the major indices, and that I was using the S&P chart to make buy/sell decisions on it.
Well, looks like things are starting to turn over, and even though I'm mostly S now (which is doing better than the C today) I'm going to lock in any profits and use 1st Feb IFT to leave my 75% S and 23% C position and go 100% G COB today.
Will look for a retest of the recent low and maybe a point below that, to buy back in.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Time is short...leaving brief plunge into safety and going back into stocks...Ukraine geopolitical fears subsiding...and on the charts, the S&P seems to be holding at the 200 Day MA and bouncing off of it.
If I go into stocks today, I'll stay ahead of the C and S funds. Not sure if I'll go all C or split C and S but will do something before todays trade deadline.

Actually, will just leave 100% G position and go 100% C COB today.

 

[tsptalk]

Good luck. The higher low looks OK, but that could also be part of the bear flag on the S fund chart. 2050 could be tough resistance, but there's room above before it gets there.

 

[rangerray]

Good luck. The higher low looks OK, but that could also be part of the bear flag on the S fund chart. 2050 could be tough resistance, but there's room above before it gets there.

Yea, I think anything in the 2028 to 2050 range would be a good place to sell again.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Tom, RangerRay

Hmmm, Interesting, but I think it might be dangerous to use the S-Fund as a market barometer.
Small Caps were hit much harder the past several weeks and the -S- drop was over 22%, officially in Bear Market Territory, while Large Caps were much "better", only a 10% Correction.
I'm a little suspect about the "Bear Flag" of the S only because it has gone on so long (13 days) while the last leg down on the S from the previous bear flag was only 11 days.
Since the -S- fell into full-on Bear Market, the 200 EMA is Above the 50, which is Above the 20 EMA. The Small Caps reached the "Death Cross" at the end of January (50 EMA Fell Below the 200 EMA).
But the S, after being below the 20 EMA for so long, has now closed above the 20 EMA for 6 Straight Days (assuming nothing crazy happens in the last 90 min of trading). See "Star" on top chart. That's a really good sign IMHO.

The S&P chart on the other hand, looks a lot different.
Only a "Borderline Correction" of 10%. Nowhere near a "Death Cross" the 50 EMA always stayed above the 200 EMA, and the 200 EMA seems to be serving as a "Bottom" the past few days. (see Bottom Chart). That's a really good sign IMHO.
Many Analysts have said that the expectation of Rate Hikes would be much worse for Small Caps, and they were right, their correction began in late November, while the S&P peaked a month later. There is no reason though to think that the S&P bottom should have any lag from Small Caps.
However all this is academic, because my system calls for me to go back into stocks when I'm ahead of them, and the most recent drop has me ahead of the C Fund for the year, and should stay that way as long as the C doesn't close at +1.8% today (as of 90 min b4 close C is up 1.4%.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Didn't have time to post this morning...but made IFT before todays deadline.

Given geopolitical crisis deepening in Ukraine, with NO CONCLUSION IN SIGHT, there will continue to be Market Uncertainty in the next few days at least, if not more.
Should have listened more to the charts with last move (should have stayed out of equities), and I hate selling near market lows, but don't see a conclusion to this scenario soon...and there are only 4 more trading days before getting a new set of moves.
Feel the next step for Putin is to send his troops into occupied areas of Eastern Ukraine, and Putin has demanded that Ukrainian forces on the border give back even more Ukrainian land to the Russian backed (and organized) rebels. That's not going to happen without a fight...things could get ugly in the coming days.

Leaving 100% C and using 3rd Feb "Exit IFT" in going 100% G COB today.

Market bounced back nicely from its morning lows, after Biden's speech, but I suspect this could set up for another big fall in the coming day or 2 if Putin starts moving his troops in.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Could not post earlier (out on the mountain skiing at 10,000 ft) but upon seeing the massive selling on Monday being the "Blood In The Streets" and Tuesday selling seeming to stall out, it seems the Market has factored current events in. Yes there will be rate hikes, yes short term Oil spike and that could lead to even worse inflation, which is partly the reason for Monday's big sell-off.

But today, it seems things reversed. Newest talk is US buying Venezuelan oil again, to make up the 3% shortfall sans Russian Oil.
Also, Ukraine-Russian war has quagmired, and Russia has basically no ay out, no way to really win and occupy Ukraine, no way to survive a few weeks or months at most with massive economic sanctions. And on our side, it means we might be ramping up domestic energy production, and we are seriously emerging from the Pandemic in a final way, finally. So our economy should continue to boom.

So when I saw markets open and shoot 2% upward, the charts also showed us emerging from a possible "Double Bottom". Actually the lows this week didn't go quite as far as the previous intraday low of last week, but close enough. In addition, my system relies on staying ahead of the C and S funds, and I was 4-6% ahead of them this morning. Definitely lost 2-3% of that today, but at least now I'm aligned with them, as I've used my first March IFT to go 100% C COB Wed March 9th.

 

[Boghie]

The Federal Gubmint does not buy oil - except maybe to replenish the Strategic Political Reserves. Why would an oil company buy from Venezuela even if allowed to do so? Why take that moral, economic, and political risk? Anybody want some politician ranting about oil blood money in a month or two. Anybody want a bunch of people in Birkenstocks and burlap sacks protesting outside their home. Maybe they will see a potential for profit, but I think not. If I were EXON I would not touch Venezuelan (or, now Russian) oil with a 10ft pole. And, if I did I would have to contract it, purchase it, ship it, refine it, distribute it...

Personally, if I were Standard Oil I would prefer to drill in the ANWAR or Texas or California or Oklahoma or Pennsylvania or the Dakotas than refinance the dilapidated oil 'industry' in Maduroland. Why dump money into that cesspit only to have it nationalized next year.

And, wow, just wow about buying from Iran. Nope, not going to do it. Just nope.

The best we can hope for is that the Egalitarian French and the Moralizing Germans buy their oil from blood soaked hands, leaving cleaner oil for us to buy. That will take LOTS of time.

Personally, I think we are in a Double Bottom Normal. The Double Bottom will Double Bottom for quite some time. The New Normal. Maybe not a crash, but a nice stagflation.

GLHF

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The Federal Gubmint does not buy oil - except maybe to replenish the Strategic Political Reserves. Why would an oil company buy from Venezuela even if allowed to do so? Why take that moral, economic, and political risk?

GLHF

Perhaps I didn't explain it well enough, or you failed to understand it.
The "Gubmint" DOES ban private companies from buying/importing oil from certain countries (see Russia). These bans also exist on Venezuela. If Venezuelan oil was allowed to flow back into the US marketplace, it could make up the 3% shortfall the US is losing from Russian Oil.
As for "Moral" risk, lets face it, we import a lot of oil from much more immoral countries (Saudi Arabia) where they desecrate women and kill political opponents, even murder and dismember US based journalists. Venezuela ranks on the "Almost, But NOT As Immoral as Saudi Arabia" list.

 

[Boghie]

Perhaps I didn't explain it well enough, or you failed to understand it.
The "Gubmint" DOES ban private companies from buying/importing oil from certain countries (see Russia). These bans also exist on Venezuela. If Venezuelan oil was allowed to flow back into the US marketplace, it could make up the 3% shortfall the US is losing from Russian Oil.
As for "Moral" risk, lets face it, we import a lot of oil from much more immoral countries (Saudi Arabia) where they desecrate women and kill political opponents, even murder and dismember US based journalists. Venezuela ranks on the "Almost, But NOT As Immoral as Saudi Arabia" list.

Other options:

• Or, we produce more internally
• Or, we could import more from decent countries

We are producing 9% less oil domestically than we did when gas prices were $2/gallon in 2019. Domestic production increased every year from 2016 through 2019 and started declining in 2020.
Canada is willing to export more oil to us. We need the infrastructure to move it though. Apparently, they can export a portion of the loss expected from Russia right now - using freight cars and the like, but that will be expensive and dangerous.

We do not need to import oil from unsavory countries - or, at least we don't have to import more oil from unsavory countries. Let's pump it ourselves and ship it from Canada!!! I'm very happy we are banning oil imports from Thug Kleptocracies like Putin and Maduro. I would like to work on dumping the useless, corrupt oil ticks in Saudi Arabia et al as well.

 

[FAAM]

Boghie - I appreciate your sharing, as always - and your thoughts and information here on oil, that seem sound and agreeable to me. Thought I'd add that I heard good news piece recently that points to another significant factor regarding oil supply - and use (refining & processing)... that much of our USA oil (ie. Texas crude) is "sweet crude" with much less sulfur than dirtier crude (I think the stuff from middle-east & Russia & even Venezuela is that type); the rub is that it seems the big oil companies in USA have refineries designed for and processing the non-sweet oil, a major decision they made some years ago & invested billions to do so... that they cannot make their products out of Sweet-crude with those refineries as-is, & it would take a lot of time and $s for them to reconfigure to be able to do so. I guess that's why USA imports other's crude and we export our sweet-stuff to other countries who's refining IS set up for it. Go figure?? I'm not an oil expert so IDK. Maybe the Canada oil is not the sweet stuff?
Anyway, also appreciate your market comments -- if it is a double bottom & moving up for awhile, good move on your part & I have missed it after today's action and yesterday's... yet I'll hope for another significant retreat of equity prices soon (& plenty of potential for that too) for a possible buy-in opportunity.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

• Or, we produce more internally
• Or, we could import more from decent countries

We are producing 9% less oil domestically than we did when gas prices were $2/gallon in 2019. Domestic production increased every year from 2016 through 2019 and started declining in 2020.

We've actually been increasing oil production rapidly in the last few months. Official numbers still not in, but best estimates are over 12 MIL Brls produced this Feb and the next few months will be significantly higher. That rivals our 2019 production numbers and will surpass it shortly.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

The medium to long range solution is to GET OFF OIL as our primary fuel, NOT deepen our dependency on it. Oil is a global commodity whose global price is influenced mostly by OPEC, regardless if we pump as much as we consume. We export because US Oil is a CAPITALIST industry, not a "NATIONALIZED SOCIALIST" one.
FYI price was $2 a gallon in 2020 because of Pandemic squashing demand, and OPEC nations overproducing. But if you want to "Socialize" the US oil industry there are some benefits, we could be like Saudi's where their people pay less than $1/gal. Plus there would be no OIL PAC $$ going to their fav political party.

And good point from FAAM, that refineries aren't fully equipped to process just US Sweet Crude, another reason why our imports of oil will always be needed to a certain degree. Until we can switch most road/rail transports to EV, only then relying mostly on domestic oil for other limited fuel needs (air/military use).

 

[PessOptimist]

We have a way to go on the EV conversion. According to USEIA https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 in 2021 61% of our electric power was generated by fossil fuels, including 13% from coal. (OMG) 19% nuclear and 20% renewable resources. Hydro being renewable in the west is a question in itself. Conversion of all trains and automobiles to electric will increase demand for electric power. The source of this electricity will probably not change much percentage wise so we will still need petroleum for vehicles and trains indirectly.

 

[nnuut]

It will NEVER work, maybe Nuclear, but that's big bucks!!

 

[kb9nvh]

the article you posted doesn't show us rivaling 2019 output right now? And conversion to renuable will take a long time to increase our infrastructure to route that power around.. nuclear makes sense.. let's fund that but for now increase oil production here so our economy doesn't crash on high energy prices.

 

[nasa1974]

the article you posted doesn't show us rivaling 2019 output right now? And conversion to renuable will take a long time to increase our infrastructure to route that power around.. nuclear makes sense.. let's fund that but for now increase oil production here so our economy doesn't crash on high energy prices.

Nuclear would seem the way to go.
There are problems however that make it extremely expensive to build and protect. How do you protect from accidents like Chernobyl and what happened in Japan? What do you do with the spent fuel rods? Where do you store them? They can stay radioactive for hundreds of years. What kind of physical protection do you provide for the facility and the storage areas? That's all we need is for some radical group to get their hands on some fuel rods or try to destroy a facility and cause a meltdown.

Renewable energy has its own problems because of startup costs. Once the infrastructure is in place it should be cost affective. Think about how expensive it was to bring electricity to everyone's home and to build the power plants.

 

[Bullitt]

It will NEVER work, maybe Nuclear, but that's big bucks!!

A lot of NIMBY'ism and fear mongering by those with something to gain by subsidies. Knee jerk reaction by Germany to shut down all nuclear plants after Fukashima sounded good and got votes at the time, but they have a whole generation brainwashed into ESG and are pressuring the EU to follow suit.

Nuclear is the best answer. Solar and wind could subsidize, but wind comes with high maintenance costs and solar will have to become more efficient.

I've always been baffled by the fact that we consume so much oil, yet we export a good amount of ours.

EV's will work if we can somehow wave a magic wand and replace/upgrade all existing electrical infrastructure. I have no faith in this happening.