Bullitt
Well-known member
Not sure why we can't just have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos figure out a way to launch them into space on an infinite path outside our solar system. Or is that not "ethical"?
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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
Not sure why we can't just have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos figure out a way to launch them into space on an infinite path outside our solar system. Or is that not "ethical"?
That has been looked into and discussed with NASA. The problem is that rockets sometimes blowup during launch.
Boghie
Well-known member
If I remember correctly, plutonium is the waste product of atomic power generation. Some countries use it, but it is a very controlled substance because it is used in nuclear weapons.
I'm not certain what the waste product of generating power from plutonium is. Japan is one of the countries that uses plutonium.
Plutonium is very dangerous. Not just for weapons, but in general. It is VERY dangerous.
Tsunami
Well-known member
In my past I did many a job in the Reactor Compartments of Nuclear Submarines. Always tried not to waste my time down there. Got some stuff on my pant leg one time, but it was cleaned up quickly when they confiscated my pants.
Hey, a little Cobalt-60 never hurt anybody LOL. I worked at a Navy Shipyard (Mare Island) as a nuclear engineer all through the 80s and also spent a lot of time crawling around the innards of nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, fun stuff. I'm old enough I even got to be part of the decommissioning of the USS Nautilus and Seawolf subs. Best job I ever had.
Man this market is strong today. I moved out today and am thrilled to have locked in a gain of nearly 6% in just 3 days, but am wondering if I screwed up and it's now starting David Hunter's "melt up". Can't believe it got clear to the 200dma which is also Mancini's target for a pullback.
Cem's latest interview (among other things) scared me out today.
https://twitter.com/42macroDDale/status/1504457777665687555
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Didn't realize there was going to be a "freeze" on IFT's until I looked at the morning charts to consider an IFT this AM.
Have been "staying the course" 100% in C, since I was about 1% above the C for the year and about 8% above the S fund for the year.
But I was eyeing these high amplitude "Bear Flags" the past 2 months, and it seems there is a good exit point at the high point of these flags. Today seems like one.
Its my 1st May IFT and was hoping to have a 2nd chance before the end of the month, but news of this IFT lockout till June 6th was a bit of a surprise.
Still, unless we've hit bottom, I think exiting to safety now might be prudent...so leaving my 100% C position and going to 100% G COB Today (May 26th).
Have been "staying the course" 100% in C, since I was about 1% above the C for the year and about 8% above the S fund for the year.
But I was eyeing these high amplitude "Bear Flags" the past 2 months, and it seems there is a good exit point at the high point of these flags. Today seems like one.
Its my 1st May IFT and was hoping to have a 2nd chance before the end of the month, but news of this IFT lockout till June 6th was a bit of a surprise.
Still, unless we've hit bottom, I think exiting to safety now might be prudent...so leaving my 100% C position and going to 100% G COB Today (May 26th).
We've sure been talking about it a lot, but I have not heard the "June 6th" date as the end date. It's always been "First week in June." Where did you see that info? Thanks!
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/38939-tsp-suspension-transactions.html
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
It was somewhere thru fast scrolling here, not sure where...but June 6th is the Monday of the 1st full week of June??
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Have been in the "G Lilly-pad" past 2 weeks.
Being at new lows and falling so sharply, it might be time to take a dip back in.
Going only halfway with 1st June IFT 50/50 G and C COB today.
Hopefully the new TSP site works Lol!
Being at new lows and falling so sharply, it might be time to take a dip back in.
Going only halfway with 1st June IFT 50/50 G and C COB today.
Hopefully the new TSP site works Lol!
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Didn't have time to post before trading deadline, but used my 2nd June IFT to throw my remaining 50% out of -G- and into the -C-.
This move could bite me badly in the short term if the markets react negatively to the Fed announcement, but too many factors pushing me to go all in:
1) My system has me going into stocks whenever I make gains on the major indices.
At my last IFT in late May I was 1% ahead of the C and 6% ahead of the S. Sitting out during the last market drop has me now 7% ahead of the C and nearly 15% ahead of the S.
In previous years whenever I successfully dodged a major market downturn, I would sit there and pat myself on the back, only to see a ferocious Bear Market Rally wipe away any 5-10% gain I had from sitting on the -G- Lilly-pad.
2) S&P has been down for 5 straight days, thats rare. Even more rare, the ferocity of the downturn, S&P dropped over 7% in just 3 days.
That massive free-fall seemed to be related to the fact the markets had baked in a 0.5% rate hike, suddenly the chances of a 0.75% hike went from near 20% to better than 50/50.
But this AM most financial analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC said the market is now expecting an 0.75% hike, which would signal the Fed is serious about inflation, and might be perceived as favorable, and that 0.50% might signal the Fed would remain behind the inflation curve.
One guy did say if the Fed went with a whole 1%, that could send some short term shock waves...but that it would be temporary.
3) Due to the huge drops of 2-5% per day on some of the past few days, some big open gaps appeared on the indices. Those would be short term targets, before considering exiting stocks again.
Tom did a nice chart of them so I'll just post his here below:
So all in all, a bit of a gamble throwing the rest of my cash into the market, but it seems the rewards a few days from now should outweigh the risks, (hopefully). Leaving old position of 50% C 50% G and going 100% C COB today.
This move could bite me badly in the short term if the markets react negatively to the Fed announcement, but too many factors pushing me to go all in:
1) My system has me going into stocks whenever I make gains on the major indices.
At my last IFT in late May I was 1% ahead of the C and 6% ahead of the S. Sitting out during the last market drop has me now 7% ahead of the C and nearly 15% ahead of the S.
In previous years whenever I successfully dodged a major market downturn, I would sit there and pat myself on the back, only to see a ferocious Bear Market Rally wipe away any 5-10% gain I had from sitting on the -G- Lilly-pad.
2) S&P has been down for 5 straight days, thats rare. Even more rare, the ferocity of the downturn, S&P dropped over 7% in just 3 days.
That massive free-fall seemed to be related to the fact the markets had baked in a 0.5% rate hike, suddenly the chances of a 0.75% hike went from near 20% to better than 50/50.
But this AM most financial analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC said the market is now expecting an 0.75% hike, which would signal the Fed is serious about inflation, and might be perceived as favorable, and that 0.50% might signal the Fed would remain behind the inflation curve.
One guy did say if the Fed went with a whole 1%, that could send some short term shock waves...but that it would be temporary.
3) Due to the huge drops of 2-5% per day on some of the past few days, some big open gaps appeared on the indices. Those would be short term targets, before considering exiting stocks again.
Tom did a nice chart of them so I'll just post his here below:
So all in all, a bit of a gamble throwing the rest of my cash into the market, but it seems the rewards a few days from now should outweigh the risks, (hopefully). Leaving old position of 50% C 50% G and going 100% C COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, my timing made me "King for a Day" or at least joining the months Smart Money. (below)
That will all change with the new big down numbers coming in...but I still feel good with our big over-sold position that the bottom is close and that in 3 days (or 3 weeks) I can end up with an exit price that's higher than what I bought into.
That will all change with the new big down numbers coming in...but I still feel good with our big over-sold position that the bottom is close and that in 3 days (or 3 weeks) I can end up with an exit price that's higher than what I bought into.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, profited pretty nicely with my brief entry into stocks a week ago. If stocks close near current levels should be up over 3% for the month, and currently 7% ahead of C/I funds, and 16% ahead of the S.
Tom has been mentioning the "Open Gaps" in the S&P for several days now, and todays big move up has filled the big Lower Gap (see chart below)
We may or may not fill the 2nd gap, but with a few days left in the month and always another exit into G move available, I'll start locking in some profits and shaving my C position and play with the "House's $$".
Leaving 100% C and going 50/50 G and C COB Today.
Tom has been mentioning the "Open Gaps" in the S&P for several days now, and todays big move up has filled the big Lower Gap (see chart below)
We may or may not fill the 2nd gap, but with a few days left in the month and always another exit into G move available, I'll start locking in some profits and shaving my C position and play with the "House's $$".
Leaving 100% C and going 50/50 G and C COB Today.
Last edited:
FWM,
The upper gap you talk about I hope gets filled sooner than later. There was a gap that bquat showed on his chats that was around 1540. That gap started around 9/15/20 and got filled on 6/16/22. The most recent post #13161 shows the gap and post #13164 shows the gap being filled. I sure hope we don't wait almost 2 years to fill this upper gap.
The upper gap you talk about I hope gets filled sooner than later. There was a gap that bquat showed on his chats that was around 1540. That gap started around 9/15/20 and got filled on 6/16/22. The most recent post #13161 shows the gap and post #13164 shows the gap being filled. I sure hope we don't wait almost 2 years to fill this upper gap.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Don't like how markets are starting to lean over again. Will lock in June profits by shifting the rest of my $$ from C into G.
Using 4th IFT (allowed when going only into safety) by leaving 50% C/50% G position and going 100% G COB today.
Using 4th IFT (allowed when going only into safety) by leaving 50% C/50% G position and going 100% G COB today.
For those looking, I did move the free G fund moves posts to a new thread:
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-transfer-limits/39206-tsp-limits-plus-free-g-fund-moves.html
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-transfer-limits/39206-tsp-limits-plus-free-g-fund-moves.html
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I've recopied a post I did on Tom's Market Talk a few days ago, regarding price of oil, inflation, recession and market lows:
"I think a Recession has already been priced in.
Definition of Recession is 2 straight quarters of negative GDP. We already had -1.6% GDP 1st qtr of 2022 and estimates are of an even higher negative # this quarter.
But price of oil is almost entirely GLOBAL supply and demand, minus refinery issues and geopolitical (WAR).
So in 2020 OPEC...at the request of the then-US President (trying to not get too political) agreed to CUT Oil Production. Oil prices then took off ever since, combining with post "Severe Covid" travel demands in 2021 as well Russian invasion/sanctions early 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/opec...an-yergin.html
However, that 2 year Oil Production Cut deal just ended, and OPEC just announced Oil Production HIKES, to go into effect next month, which almost always tends to lower oil prices, especially when coupled with the recent drop in demand as gasoline prices are at record high levels, less people taking long road trips, boating or driving RV's.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/opec...ns-linger.html
So I doubt its mostly based on recession fears, as we probably "technically" started recession back in January and the near 30% drop in the S&P from recent highs likely priced most of that in. I think its mostly supply & demand...just basic Capitalism.
This could be good news for all of us, as lowering oil prices by itself would eventually lead to lower prices at the pumps, combined with the fact that after July 4th we are going past the summer-time travel peak.
This could help with inflation soon....which could reduce the fears of massive future rate hikes...and might make markets soar sooner rather than later....meaning we might be closing in on our market lows (hopefully) and might need to think about getting in, and staying in, stocks soon. IMHO."
Also heard a chartist on Cramer saying a bottom may be here. Not 100% confident on that...but feeling is sellers have run out of steam (for now) Ukraine war on pause for a few weeks and oil down huge in past 2-3 weeks....seems like at least a shot upward to fill the 1st open gap on SP500 (also exists on Small Caps). Thats a 3-4% jump from here, and too much to pass up.
So Leaving G position and going 50/50 S and C COB today.
"I think a Recession has already been priced in.
Definition of Recession is 2 straight quarters of negative GDP. We already had -1.6% GDP 1st qtr of 2022 and estimates are of an even higher negative # this quarter.
But price of oil is almost entirely GLOBAL supply and demand, minus refinery issues and geopolitical (WAR).
So in 2020 OPEC...at the request of the then-US President (trying to not get too political) agreed to CUT Oil Production. Oil prices then took off ever since, combining with post "Severe Covid" travel demands in 2021 as well Russian invasion/sanctions early 2022.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/opec...an-yergin.html
However, that 2 year Oil Production Cut deal just ended, and OPEC just announced Oil Production HIKES, to go into effect next month, which almost always tends to lower oil prices, especially when coupled with the recent drop in demand as gasoline prices are at record high levels, less people taking long road trips, boating or driving RV's.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/opec...ns-linger.html
So I doubt its mostly based on recession fears, as we probably "technically" started recession back in January and the near 30% drop in the S&P from recent highs likely priced most of that in. I think its mostly supply & demand...just basic Capitalism.
This could be good news for all of us, as lowering oil prices by itself would eventually lead to lower prices at the pumps, combined with the fact that after July 4th we are going past the summer-time travel peak.
This could help with inflation soon....which could reduce the fears of massive future rate hikes...and might make markets soar sooner rather than later....meaning we might be closing in on our market lows (hopefully) and might need to think about getting in, and staying in, stocks soon. IMHO."
Also heard a chartist on Cramer saying a bottom may be here. Not 100% confident on that...but feeling is sellers have run out of steam (for now) Ukraine war on pause for a few weeks and oil down huge in past 2-3 weeks....seems like at least a shot upward to fill the 1st open gap on SP500 (also exists on Small Caps). Thats a 3-4% jump from here, and too much to pass up.
So Leaving G position and going 50/50 S and C COB today.
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