FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Bear Flags starting to show up on major indices, both here in the US and globally???
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
2 down days in a row...repositioning back into stocks. Going 100% S COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Locking in near 3% monthly gain.
Exiting 100% S and using 1st Aug IFT to temporarily go 100% G COB today.
Exiting 100% S and using 1st Aug IFT to temporarily go 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Using 2nd Aug IFT to re-position on (what seems like) a down day.
Leaving 100% G and going 50/50 C and S COB today.
Leaving 100% G and going 50/50 C and S COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Using 1st Sep IFT to just reposition from 50% C and 50% S into 100% S COB today.
It likes like we've bottomed, at least in the short term...but lots of uncertainty for October.
It likes like we've bottomed, at least in the short term...but lots of uncertainty for October.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Was considering using 1st OCT IFT yesterday to lock in 1.91% S fund gain.
Now...with POTUS COVID situation, (and just announced that Trump is experiencing symptoms now), and the fact that others around him could end up positive in the coming days, this has the potential to be a slow moving Black Swan event
I see the S has not fallen as much as other indices, actually flirting with positive territory as I write this. Who knows where it ends up by COB, but locking in any monthly gain now seems better than seeing what happens in the next several days.
Using 1st Oct IFT to leave 100% S position and go 100% G COB today.
Now...with POTUS COVID situation, (and just announced that Trump is experiencing symptoms now), and the fact that others around him could end up positive in the coming days, this has the potential to be a slow moving Black Swan event
I see the S has not fallen as much as other indices, actually flirting with positive territory as I write this. Who knows where it ends up by COB, but locking in any monthly gain now seems better than seeing what happens in the next several days.
Using 1st Oct IFT to leave 100% S position and go 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Not liking the volatility (with downward stock trajectory).
Have locked in nearly 2% for the month by leaving stocks for the -G- in early Oct, and normally would use that last monthly IFT to go back into stocks. However, will use 2nd Oct IFT to try to make some $$ in the -F-.
Leaving 100% G and going 100% F by COB today.
Have locked in nearly 2% for the month by leaving stocks for the -G- in early Oct, and normally would use that last monthly IFT to go back into stocks. However, will use 2nd Oct IFT to try to make some $$ in the -F-.
Leaving 100% G and going 100% F by COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Hate buying in near recent highs...BUT...Don't Fight the Fed, the Vaccine Rollout, AND nearly 1 Trillion Stimulus Deal.
Leaving 100% F and going 50% C and 50% S COB today.
Leaving 100% F and going 50% C and 50% S COB today.
Last edited:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Repositioning out of Small Caps with 2nd Dec IFT.
Leaving 50% S and 50% C COB Today and going 60% I and 40% C.
Going mostly I-Fund as Europe just fixed its BREXIT issue and doesn't have the political baggage we still have for a few more weeks.
Leaving 50% S and 50% C COB Today and going 60% I and 40% C.
Going mostly I-Fund as Europe just fixed its BREXIT issue and doesn't have the political baggage we still have for a few more weeks.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
For those confused about todays stock surge, it makes total sense: It makes the same sense on why stocks were a good bet after Trumps win in the 2016 election, but for different reasons.
1) Democrats now will easily pass their additional COVID relief plan, with 2K for everyone, and aid to hard hit states....pumping another TRILLION into the economy.
2) Major multi Trillion National Infrastructure Bill, to fix roads, buildings etc will pass this year. Reasons 1 and 2 are a LOT of added stimulus.
3) Many perceive Democrats will more effectively deal with COVID, unblock the vaccine log-jam, and get us (and the economy) back to normal, quicker.
4) Fed already pledged to keep rates low "forever" or in reality, for foreseeable future, until economy overheats and causes runaway inflation, which is likely a long-long way out.
5) No more irrational "trade wars" with our biggest trading partner.
There will likely be tax hikes down the road, and necessary, to pay for everything, including the monster deficits of the past 4 years, but thats maybe on next years docket.
Sure, there will be times to sell stocks briefly when things get too frothy. But in general there is really no reason not to be fully invested most of the next few months...unless Lou Dobbs and Stuart Varney are ones primary source of financial mis-information.
1) Democrats now will easily pass their additional COVID relief plan, with 2K for everyone, and aid to hard hit states....pumping another TRILLION into the economy.
2) Major multi Trillion National Infrastructure Bill, to fix roads, buildings etc will pass this year. Reasons 1 and 2 are a LOT of added stimulus.
3) Many perceive Democrats will more effectively deal with COVID, unblock the vaccine log-jam, and get us (and the economy) back to normal, quicker.
4) Fed already pledged to keep rates low "forever" or in reality, for foreseeable future, until economy overheats and causes runaway inflation, which is likely a long-long way out.
5) No more irrational "trade wars" with our biggest trading partner.
There will likely be tax hikes down the road, and necessary, to pay for everything, including the monster deficits of the past 4 years, but thats maybe on next years docket.
Sure, there will be times to sell stocks briefly when things get too frothy. But in general there is really no reason not to be fully invested most of the next few months...unless Lou Dobbs and Stuart Varney are ones primary source of financial mis-information.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Still a lot of tail risk.
I'm struggling with the vaccine log jam part. I don't see how either side would manage to do a better job on the rollout. Too bad Amazon hasn't thrown their hat in the ring, they'd do a better job than the army.
If Republicans were able to pass the tax cut in one vote, Democrats might be able to repeal it and increase corporate and capital gains taxes in one vote too. Increased taxes will be a serious headwind towards stocks, IPO's, SPAC's. So will regulation. They have two years to do it, mid-terms are in two years and often the sees the presidents party lose seats in Congress.
If rates rise while our fiscal situation deteriorates, yields will at some point become attractive making for another headwind. The 10-Year did go over 1% for the first time in a year today.
I'm struggling with the vaccine log jam part. I don't see how either side would manage to do a better job on the rollout. Too bad Amazon hasn't thrown their hat in the ring, they'd do a better job than the army.
If Republicans were able to pass the tax cut in one vote, Democrats might be able to repeal it and increase corporate and capital gains taxes in one vote too. Increased taxes will be a serious headwind towards stocks, IPO's, SPAC's. So will regulation. They have two years to do it, mid-terms are in two years and often the sees the presidents party lose seats in Congress.
If rates rise while our fiscal situation deteriorates, yields will at some point become attractive making for another headwind. The 10-Year did go over 1% for the first time in a year today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
its become painfully obvious that all the previous administration did was cut a big check 9 months ago for vaccine DEVELOPMENT...but did NOTHING for vaccine distribution, simply leaving it for the states.
The big problem with that, is that it requires a huge investment in infrastructure to vaccinate 200-250 Million Americans in the next few months...and since states cannot run a deficit and print their own money, it was critical for the Feds to fund the distribution infrastructure. They did none of this.
Thats why the Biden COVID team (which was kept out of inside briefings of Operation Warp Speed until just before the inauguration), said it has to now basically start from scratch regarding distribution, and will organize a more Federally run response, to get vaccines into every Walgreens, CVS, WalMart pharmacy, and hire hundreds of thousands of people who are qualified to administer shots.
As long as this new federal effort doesn't get derailed in Congress (doubtful because Dems control both) it should still not have a negative effect on the market IMHO.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Using 1st January IFT to do some window dressing and exit out of I fund and redistribute more towards S...hoping todays early drop and whatever our close might be could be the impetus to another move higher. Don't see any well defined topping pattern so....
Leaving previous position of 60% I and 40% C...and shifting over to 70% S and 30% C COB today.
Still riding the once in a decade/lifetime "Combo Express Train" of !) Multi-Trillion Dollar Stimulus AND 2) Super Low Interest Rates AND 3) Expected Recovery from Global Pandemic...all at the same time.
DON'T FIGHT THE FED. Especially when its not just low interest rates but also massive injection of Trillions into the Economy.
Leaving previous position of 60% I and 40% C...and shifting over to 70% S and 30% C COB today.
Still riding the once in a decade/lifetime "Combo Express Train" of !) Multi-Trillion Dollar Stimulus AND 2) Super Low Interest Rates AND 3) Expected Recovery from Global Pandemic...all at the same time.
DON'T FIGHT THE FED. Especially when its not just low interest rates but also massive injection of Trillions into the Economy.
Last edited:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
A ton of private companies are gonna have to "help" but its up to someone to coordinate it, set timelines/deadlines quota's for delivery etc.
Its how WW II mass war production worked...Govt't sets up contract requirements and timelines, then private companies bid and deliver what the gov't requests....paid for by the Federal Gov't (why we racked up such huge National Debt back then).
If we just let private companies on their own, handle everything including running and funding the war production effort on their own, we'd all be speaking a combination of German and Japanese a long time ago, lol.
Up until a week after the election the drug companies werent giving a roll out date.. Kinda hard to organize a distribution network when what you are distributing could be 2 years away as the democrats were all saying. I think having some cooperation rather than sabotage would have helped immensely in trumps performance.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Using 1st March IFT to lock in profits.
VIX near 3 month lows and our Sentiment Survey (without publicly revealing exact % for decisions) is thru the roof!
Leaving 70% S and 30% C and going 100% G COB today.
VIX near 3 month lows and our Sentiment Survey (without publicly revealing exact % for decisions) is thru the roof!
Leaving 70% S and 30% C and going 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Moving out of stocks and into safety 2 weeks ago, has somehow catapulted me past all the indices for the year (depending on how things close today) via "Addition by Subtraction".
My system, which tries to limit moves just to stay ahead of the major indices (which I only listen to 50% of the time...so I guess its not a system-lol) says to get back in.
Given the major rotation out of Small Caps into the better performing S&P and Dow stocks, I am leaving my 100% G position and going 100% C COB Today.
My system, which tries to limit moves just to stay ahead of the major indices (which I only listen to 50% of the time...so I guess its not a system-lol) says to get back in.
Given the major rotation out of Small Caps into the better performing S&P and Dow stocks, I am leaving my 100% G position and going 100% C COB Today.
Similar threads
- Article