FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[weatherweenie]

Great call!

Latest move sent me from the 700's in the Tracker up to near the top in the past week. Patience (waiting for the late January dip) paid off.
Now with 2 strong up days, trying not to get too greedy. Seems unlikely to see new highs right away given CoronaVirus uncertainties...and possible bear flag on major indices...so will lock in +3% for Feb and use 1st Feb IFT to sell 100% S and go back into 100% G COB today.

 

[Whipsaw]

FWM, you rock! OBTW, moves and justification posts before noon, if possible.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With a near 3% drop today, if I leave the G fund and go back into stocks, I'll end up 2% ahead of the C and S funds YTD.
My system is screaming for me to go all into C and S today. BUT, with reports that Fidelity and other brokerage firms are having technical difficulties with people not being able to access their accounts, I fear the big sell-off may continue tomorrow.
Might move in today, or wait till tomorrow...will decide with 5 minutes before deadline.

Fidelity, Schwab say some clients experienced technical issues amid 800-point Dow plunge

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/fid...chnical-issues-amid-800-point-dow-plunge.html

 

[Whipsaw]

Be sure you can actually get in to your account... the email pass codes are killing me.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Avoiding temptation of trying to time the bottom...leaving safety of G and going full into stocks.
Leaving 100% G and entering 50% C and 50% S COB today.

 

[Khotso]

With a near 3% drop today, if I leave the G fund and go back into stocks, I'll end up 2% ahead of the C and S funds YTD.
My system is screaming for me to go all into C and S today. BUT, with reports that Fidelity and other brokerage firms are having technical difficulties with people not being able to access their accounts, I fear the big sell-off may continue tomorrow.
Might move in today, or wait till tomorrow...will decide with 5 minutes before deadline.

Fidelity, Schwab say some clients experienced technical issues amid 800-point Dow plunge

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/fid...chnical-issues-amid-800-point-dow-plunge.html

The AAII site is also crashed this morning (American Assoc of Individual Investors). I';m with you. Far better safe than sorry at times like these. Moving my wife's VG IRA $ to a safe place as well.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Be sure you can actually get in to your account... the email pass codes are killing me.

No issues. After I entered my initial PW, and selected cell text, I got a text message on my cell within 5 seconds with 2nd code...entered it and was in my account instantly. :smile:

Reminder...do NOT use email. Use text msg to cell. Email can take several minutes I've found.

 

[Whipsaw]

FWIW, today the email arrived post haste, I called and griped pointedly to the helpdesk (waited to talk to a warm body). Maybe they did something...?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Fading this rally, using 1st March IFT to leave stocks (50/50 C and S) and go 100% F COB today.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

 

[Rod]

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

That's where I also headed back to. It'll be the fund of 2020.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Wow, the F-fund? Do you think 10-year yield will go below 1%? It's heading that way, but seems unbelievable.

Interesting point Tom. To be honest, I may have been projecting a Last Month, Best Month methodology without fully thinking it through. I was expecting to stay in stocks since I was about 2 to 3% above the C & S funds and that would suit me well going into the second half of the year. BUT SEEING THE BRIEF MORNING RALLY RESPONSE TO THE BIG FED MOVE FADE JUST AS QUICKLY, GAVE ME ONLY A FEW MINUTES BEFORE TODAY'S DEADLINE TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT GETTING OUT OF MY EQUITIES POSITION, WHICH I ENTERED LAST WEEK, AND GOING BACK INTO SAFETY. Maybe G would have been a better play. Lol, not sure why part of my message ended up in CAPS

 

[FireWeatherMet]

So far very happy with my move into the F fund 2 days ago.
Gain the last 2 days should be well over 0.50%.
Did miss yesterdays big rally, but avoiding todays total giveaway in what seems like another "Falling Knife".

This late mornings chart clip of the charts is already a little outdated, as indices have dropped another full percent since this analysis an hour ago...but seems to me that a "Bear Flag" has formed up, and that we are primed for another big leg downward.
Also noticed that we have closed below the 200 Day EMA 4 out of the last 6 days (incl todays projection). Thats serious technical damage, and tends to make me believe this is indeed a Bear Flag, instead of a "Spikey Recovery".

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Looks like we started our next knife downwards off the "Bear Flag" as seen on chart off of my previous post.

So far, setting up in the F fund a week ago has been absolute salvation. Not just for my account, but for my mental well-being.
Speaking of F-Fund, which earned a 1 day return of +1.04% last Friday, when has anyone ever seen a +1% Daily Return off of it? I never remembered that, not even during the financial crisis 11-12 years ago??

Will continue to stay put on my "F-antasy Island" perch a bit longer, but will consider dipping briefly into stocks if we extend the current drop to the length of the previous downward flag-pole.

 

[nnuut]

I'm 40% in th "F", rest in the "G". The "F" is acting NNUUTS! That's my Technical Analysis!

 

[Rod]

I'm 40% in th "F", rest in the "G". The "F" is acting NNUUTS! That's my Technical Analysis!

That's exactly why I bailed to (G). But, I am usually a day early or a day late with my IFT's. I'll be right on time if (F) is down tomorrow.

 

[wahinepio]

That's exactly why I bailed to (G). But, I am usually a day early or a day late with my IFT's. I'll be right on time if (F) is down tomorrow.

Mama always said "Better early than late".

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This is what todays carnage looked like, if you would assign a song to it.

"Let The Bodies Hit The Floor"

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks...I used to like that song;damnit

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A really good, detailed analysis from one of the top financial analysts in the country.