FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Per video below, some short term pain in next few days possible, before runup to +3000 levels on SP.

Jobs report due Friday, and it has the potential to be a "Sell the News" event, especially if it comes in close to expected numbers, as better jobs numbers, and stocks in record teritory with record low unemployment would make it tougher for Fed justifying a rate cut in July.

Locking in 1% July profits, going 100%G, but plan on jumping back in at a lower price (hopefully).

 

[rothnroll]

Per video below, some short term pain in next few days possible, before runup to +3000 levels on SP.

Jobs report due Friday, and it has the potential to be a "Sell the News" event, especially if it comes in close to expected numbers, as better jobs numbers, and stocks in record teritory with record low unemployment would make it tougher for Fed justifying a rate cut in July.

Locking in 1% July profits, going 100%G, but plan on jumping back in at a lower price (hopefully).

If you think Friday might be an up day? Why go to the "G" Fund now?

 

[nasa1974]

If you think Friday might be an up day? Why go to the "G" Fund now?

FWM, is saying a "sell the news event" which translates to a posible down day.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Feeling really good with my first move from C/S into G to not get too greedy and lock in 1.5% profits just before Jobs report, and having more dry powder left to move back into equities at a lower price.
Since I know I'll likely not finish anywhere close to here by months end, because I'll probably do something stupid, like go back in too early, or too late, I'll just savor this now. :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Returning back to my system of staying invested in stocks (Bull Market) or Bonds (Bear Market) a majority of the time.
Leaving 100% G and going 100% S COB today...C fund is breaking out on Fed Euphoria, but S has more room to run to new highs, and seems small caps ofer the best buy in opportunity, being negative slightly today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Have been watching the open gap on the S&P get filled today as we have (as of noon EDT) recovered about half our losses from the recent 5% drop.
Tom has been mentioning this for a few days, and when this plunge started, I did tentatively make a "recovery plan" to wait till we bounced to that level to use my 1st Aug IFT to exit my 100% S position and lock in the recent 2.5% gains by going in all G. The second part of this plan would be anticipating prices falling towards our recent lows, and buying back in at a much lower price. Well, we hit that gap this morning (see chart) and I followed suit and used 1st Aug IFT to go 100% G COB today.

The "danger" for making that choice is if we fully fill that gap and keep going up. I saw some news after I made the IFT that China may peg its Yuan to keep at just above the critical 7 level, at least for now. Had I seen that before I might have stayed in longer.
But it is what it is, and we'll see how the market closes today, and how any headlines affect it tomorrow and in the coming. days. Whenever I try to use short term news to over-rule the chart signals, I usually get my "assets" handed to me, so I stand by my move (gulp).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Previous plan working out this morning (at least for now). Who knows what the afternoon will bring.
Could jump back in and guarantee a decent jump on all the funds this month, which is what my system calls for.
But.....

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Chart patterns pointed to staying in safety as new lows seemed likely.
However, China tarrif news "Trumps" charts in the short term, so with September 1st deadline pushed back, I will adhere to my system, which says get back in, to stay ahead of the indices for the month (even if all finsih negative).

Jumped back from 100% G into 100% C by COB today...2nd Aug IFT.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This bounce back eliminates most of the mega 1 day drop from last week.
Little confidence that we're headed to new highs, so going 100% G COB today.

Oscar Carboni says charts still setting up a huge bear flag, which this mornings positive action still verifies...I'll take the rest of August off.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

"Possible" Bear Flag still building.
This chart was from Oscar Carboni's video yesterday. Todays action, rising early, diving a bit late and finishing only slightly higher overall, just defined the flag even better.
Of course, if the Fed surprises tomorrow and announces massive rate cuts (which would be stupid economically) then we could break out to the upside.
But the more likely scenario is the Fed being non-commital or only hinting at another small cut. That would upset an irrational market which, for some reason, has priced in 3-4 rate cuts for the rest of the year.
I'm happy moving to the sidelines. Will look to buy back in after Labor Day at a much better price.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Interesting analysis.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Everyone has been talking about the 2Yr-10Yr Inversion and its approx 80% success rate at predicting Recessions in the near future.

Evidently, there is an even more reliable predictor.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Todays up action takes the Bear Flag to its upper flagpoint.
If you believe in charting, you would believe that the next major move is downward.

By the way, unrelated note...Sheltered my wifes 401(k) which is done thru her company via T Rowe Price. They had nearly a dozen funds to choose from, including those that mimic our -F- and -G- funds.
They do let you move up till 10 minutes before the close of trading to get counted COB that day (unlike our Noon ET deadline).
BUT...you are only allowed ONE move every 30 DAYS! And not once a month, but literally if you make a move on August 29th, you have to wait till Sep 29th to move again.
Oh yeah, and each move costs about $25, which gets deducted from your account.

 

[pmaloney]

As much as we complain the TSP transactions are not as maniacally austere as others, but even though they once made sense, a little bit of loosening is justified. Any change is a slippery slope and I actually like the TSP method which either makes you stay in most of the month or out. However, since technology allows much more, I really think they should allow more that two positive IFTs per month. :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

As much as we complain the TSP transactions are not as maniacally austere as others, but even though they once made sense, a little bit of loosening is justified. Any change is a slippery slope and I actually like the TSP method which either makes you stay in most of the month or out. However, since technology allows much more, I really think they should allow more that two positive IFTs per month. :smile:

I know they say our transaction fees are really low but even if we could see 4 IFT's a month that would help. I wonder how many people make a move per month and how many IFT's they make? Or maybe a better question is, how many IFT's are made per month throughout the whole TSP realm?

 

[Cactus]

I know they say our transaction fees are really low but even if we could see 4 IFT's a month that would help. I wonder how many people make a move per month and how many IFT's they make? Or maybe a better question is, how many IFT's are made per month throughout the whole TSP realm?

Well as for me, the 2 IFT (1 round trip) limit has drastically affected how much and when I make an IFT. There are many months I don't make any moves at all. I haven't made one yet this year. If I had had 3 IFTs (2 market entries) I would have made some moves this Summer that would have left me in a better position than where I am right now. I think this is what the FRTIB wants. They don't want us to move out money around. Unfortunately I'm not comfortable with that. But I need a system that works with the 2 IFT limit and I haven't found one I like yet. I can't stand being locked out for the rest of the month when the market starts to recover and I don't like getting out too early in the month because I may need that IFT a week or so later. That tends to leave me frozen in place many months.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

As much as we complain the TSP transactions are not as maniacally austere as others, but even though they once made sense, a little bit of loosening is justified. Any change is a slippery slope and I actually like the TSP method which either makes you stay in most of the month or out. However, since technology allows much more, I really think they should allow more that two positive IFTs per month. :smile:

Given your point about Technology, if a massive Fund Company like T Rowe can execute COB transfers within 10 minutes of COB, then certainly TSP can.
That would prevent a lot of intraday reversal heart-aches.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

FWM, You hit the nail on the head! That is the true crime in all of this and how TSP is set up. Surely they could allow us to transact closer to end of day. I can't help but think someone is profiting from this 4 hour lag (from when he submit our IFTs to when price is set).

I also agree with NASA about how great it would be to have even 4 IFTs per month. That would expand our ability to make much more money. As it stands now, must decide whether to be invested by the end of the month to be in the invested at start of next month, then exit the next month when necessary and still have one IFT left to re-enter later in that next month. Rinse, Repeat!

I have noticed that in many instances there is an increase in equities during first few days of market.... obviously that does not always happen. But it happens enough to where I look at charts and then try to take a calculated risk on whether to be invested at start of next month. What really chaps my hide is not having an IFT a week before end of month to where your hands are tied if market is heading up. Uggghh… now that's truly sick! But that 4 -hour window of hand wringing after you submit an IFT is just downright ridiculous and unnecessary!

 

[Mcqlives]

Agreed on all counts. As for profit....look no farther then the I fund fv.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

False alarm on September exodus from markets.
Using first September IFT to leave G Lillypad, and go 100% C COB today.
Still wary of high October volatility but don't feel like market crash is gong to happen tomorrow (famous last words-gulp)!