FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Interesting, and a little scary. Shows that the administration has no economic experts. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/28/...k-markets.html

How about Larry Kudlow? Ironically, he was the economic expert on CNBC for a while.

 

[sniper]

Was involved in two shutdowns or more and always got paid for the time off the next payday after the shutdown, Free Vacation and paid for it, nobody is NOT getting paid.

It's the whole uncertainty not knowing how log it'll be or when we're getting paid next. I turned down a ski trip invite for the weekend and went to Costco instead. Now spending time doing cheap hobbies like brewing and surfing

 

[Mcqlives]

Fading this 2-3 day monster rally. Doesn't feel like the bottom yet especially given all the Washington uncertainty still in the air, and after watching CNBC's Fast Money's Carter Worth, he laid out some pretty good points on why there is likely more to go.

Using 1st Dec IFT to exit S and C funds, shifting all into F, COB today (Dec 28).

BTW, this is a Fibonacci Retracement I did a week ago on the S&P, based on medium term bottom and tops. Notice where we are now near 2487 around noon EST, piercing the 1st 2 levels with 2254 being the next.

View attachment 43956

I hate starting the month out of the markets because of the move limitations but I am hedging towards going to a G/F split this morning. ^DJT has flatlined and nothing is looking that great to me. An hour to decide but am pretty sure I am bailing.

Happy New Year!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Loving life in the F-fund, my last IFT in late Dec 2018.

Re-charted the Fibonacci Retracements from the pre-selected Highs and Lows as anchor points to current S&P levels.
Looks like we are headed for the 61.8% retracement ultimately. That would be about another 8% down from current levels.



And the F fund (5 year chart below) is looking like its breaking out.

 

[sniper]

I miss the random posts with the jamaican dude smoking a J lol

 

[Boghie]

Was involved in two shutdowns or more and always got paid for the time off the next payday after the shutdown, Free Vacation and paid for it, nobody is NOT getting paid.

NNuut,

I, and lots of other Federal Government employees, were furloughed one day a pay period for multiple months a few years ago. WE WERE NEVER PAID.

Personally, I did fine. I got some part time computer programming work and ended up positive for the year, but not everybody can do that. And, it was a gigantic pain in the butt and lots of work. When the furlough ended I still had to find time to finish that project - on my own time. All good, not complaining.

However, it is a canard to say that furloughed people are going to get paid. They will not if they are furloughed on a schedule (like a day every pay period).

The gubmint is broke and we are being treated like all employees of bankrupting companies. See Sears and K-Mart employment as an example.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

As good as the F fund has treated me over the past week, 2 big news items have changed the story.

1) FED Chief publicly saying they would be cautious about hiking too much.

2) Great employment numbers showing US is not anywhere close to beginning a Recession.

Normally #2 would kill reaon #1 but in this case it doesn't seem so, at least for the short term.
In staying fluid and not getting left behind, I'm shedding my F position and going 100% S COB today.
Avoiding C due to Apple concerns.

 

[Boghie]

Beware the 'F Fund'...
Beware the 'Ides of March'...

 

[nnuut]

Boghie
I never heard of that happening or at least where I was working for 36 years. I worked for the Navy at a Nuclear Shipyard and a USAF Maintenance Center for the DOD and never lost a stinking PENNY. Other organizations may have handled it differently. I believe that thing that happened to you was a very small percentage of government employees.
[h=1]List of agencies affected by the United States federal government shutdown of 2013[/h]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...ed_States_federal_government_shutdown_of_2013

 

[Cactus]

Boghie is talking abouit the Sequestration of 2013 where we all took a 20% pay cut for several months. That hurt our organization because we are prefunded and we ended the fiscal year with too much left so take it away next year. We had people hurt because the financial hardship affected the clearaces of some folks living too close to the edge and we lost them for a year or more until they could get back in. The actual furloughs happened after the new fiscal year and didn't affect us.

 

[Valkyrie]

I miss the random posts with the jamaican dude smoking a J lol

I miss the Sugar and Spice posts. they were too funny.

 

[Boghie]

Boghie is talking abouit the Sequestration of 2013 where we all took a 20% pay cut for several months. That hurt our organization because we are prefunded and we ended the fiscal year with too much left so take it away next year. We had people hurt because the financial hardship affected the clearaces of some folks living too close to the edge and we lost them for a year or more until they could get back in. The actual furloughs happened after the new fiscal year and didn't affect us.

That was it.

I worked (and still work for) the DOD. I think you had already retired NNuut so you didn't get to live that dream. That experience in 2013 was a bad one. Not a killer, but not a vacation either. The previous 'shutdowns' were made whole financially soon after the gubmint reopened. I was expecting what happened so I was ready. But, like Cactus says, there were quite a few who were really hurt during that one.

The DoD has been authorized for FY2019, so no issues for me.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

For those who say the shutdown has no effect on the economy.
SHUTDOWN TRIMS GDP 0.1% EVERY 2 WEEKS
Government Shutdown Cuts 0.1% From GDP Every 2 Weeks: White House | Fortune

 

[nnuut]

That was it.

I worked (and still work for) the DOD. I think you had already retired NNuut so you didn't get to live that dream. That experience in 2013 was a bad one. Not a killer, but not a vacation either. The previous 'shutdowns' were made whole financially soon after the gubmint reopened. I was expecting what happened so I was ready. But, like Cactus says, there were quite a few who were really hurt during that one.

The DoD has been authorized for FY2019, so no issues for me.

Yer right I retired in 2010.

 

[nasa1974]

Survived the 21 day under Clinton. Missed the one in 2013, retired in 2012. This one, the contractor I'm working for is fully funded so we will be paid. I'm praying it doesn't last much longer so folks don't lose homes, cars or security clearances.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

If you’re buying or selling a home, the federal government shutdown could pose big problems​

https://fox13now.com/2019/01/04/if-...-government-shutdown-could-pose-big-problems/

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Was toying with the idea of fading towards safety and shifting from my 100% S position and going 50/50 S and F....then eventually use 3rd IFT to go 50G and 50F.

But something I saw on Fast Money Talk a few weeks ago showed past 20% drops going back up 13-15% before crashing back down. And Nnuuts Oscar Video along with Toms commentaries showed Bull Flags all around. So this could be the next (or last??) big push up. So will stay put 100% S for now, but as Oscar Carboni says below "Will Not Fall In Love With The Upside".

Thanks for posting those vids Norm.

[video=youtube;sCYBbUATS54]https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=sCYBbUATS54[/video]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With most other indices struggling but S still having a huge day (so far) will start to shift towards defense and protect 6-7% monthly gains (depending how things finish today).
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% S position and go 50F and still remain 50 S.
Next move would be waiting to see if things boil over, then move remaining S into G. Or not, if things continue to climb.

 

[Khotso]

With most other indices struggling but S still having a huge day (so far) will start to shift towards defense and protect 6-7% monthly gains (depending how things finish today).
Using 2nd IFT to leave 100% S position and go 50F and still remain 50 S.
Next move would be waiting to see if things boil over, then move remaining S into G. Or not, if things continue to climb.

Congrats on a great start to 2019 FWM. You are definitely due. All the best going forward.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Getting a feeling from the charts that the F fund is due, which is usually (but not always) in line with equities reversing somewhat, at least in the short term.

A look at the latest F Bond Chart shows what seems to be a developing breakout with a Bull Flag forming.



A longer (3 year) look at the F shows that the current level is still WAY BELOW where it was.
If this was the S&P chart, it would seem like a bottom was in and a strong buy.
So that's part of why I'm shifting 50% of my allocation from S to F. But still leaving half my toes in the water, which will be a day by day decision from here.