FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

I know I've said it before on this site, but I'm old and I to repeat myself...

Cramer came out a few days before the total collapse of Bear Sterns and said everything was fine, all good, nothing to see here. If they do a sequel to The Greatest Showman, it could be about him.

True....which means he has a "Bear-ish" bias.
But...his call on October 2nd, 2008 with the S&P at 1114 of "If you need your money in less than 5 years, take it out of stocks now" was a good, gutsy call. as it fell into the upper 600's (40% lower) 5 months later.
Actually the market reached above that 1114 level for good in about 2 years, but not knowing the amount of stimulus and bank and auto bailouts that would be done that was the right call...as by late 2010 most analysts had given the "buy" signal again.

https://www.today.com/news/jim-cramer-time-get-out-stock-market-wbna27045699

 

[pmaloney]

Yup! I have learned and earned a lot from Mister Cramer and enjoyed his entertaining show for years. I appreciate his constant bullish stance on stocks with good fundamentals and appreciation of that view when the market takes ludicrous and dangerous turns. :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Really interesting Jim Cramer Tweets this afternoon. He is watching VIX products going down followed by Margin calls which bring the market up. He says the next one at 2:45 could be big.​

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Probably waited too long to jump back in, but now with bull flags forming on all major indices (see Tom's daily discussions) it makes sense to jump in on a down day (except that the down part is because the Fed stated it might be raising rates 4 times instead of 3.)

Using last IFT of Feb to leave -G- and go all into stocks (50/50 C and S).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

After nearly a 2% gain this month (pending today) I will be using my 1st March IFT to lock in profits and wait for a better price to get back in. Going 100% G as of COB today.

Reasons are:

1) Dow Transports (and some other major indices) showing major Bear Flags.

2) S&P showing a topping pattern, and increased possibilities of doing what has been mentioned on Tom's discussions for some time, namely a retest of last months lows:



3) Tariff official announcement. While sparing Mexico and Canada (which helped markets higher yesterday) it targets China and other countries, which sets the stage for those countries to announce their retaliation.

4) Reason #3 is why Trumps main voice of economic reason, Gary Cohn, resigned the other day. Thats not good news, when the "Smart Money" abandons ship.

I've hurt myself recently in bailing to safety too early, but will rely on both the charts and the news. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. lol

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Looking for a reason to jump back into stocks, and almost did it today.
However, something on the charts just didn't seem right, and after reading some of the threads here, including Whipsaw, Tom's commentary, and Oscar Carboni's Red Omni on the S&P (see vid below, via Nnutt) thanks Norm, I've decided to keep my powder dry for now, hold onto 2% monthly gain, and wait for a better price in the coming days. The tricky part is not waiting too long, which almost made me jump in today.

[video=youtube;FvfK2rYs9IM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=FvfK2rYs9IM[/video]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Jumped in today, leaving all G, and going 50% C and 50% S as of COB today.

S&P having its 4th down day in a row, the most in several months was part of the equation.
Stocks today seem to be doing what they did all week, open high, then start trending lower. Still up, but starting to roll off the earlier highs in the S&P right now.
What I don't like, is the sharply lowering VIX right now, down 6% at time of writing. I know that its a signal to some to head for the sidelines, and I will try to stay cognizant of that, especially if Tom's consideration of a big Bear Flag on the indices is true.
There is lots of news next week that could send stocks lower, the Fed of course, although many feel the interest hike was already baked in. We'll see, if this ends up being just a short term (1-5 day) trade.

Speaking of Markets starting high and rolling over, this could be a sign that big institutions are starting to dump their money, they have to do it incrementally, so that their volume doesn't destroy their price. An interesting video describes this and how you can use it to profit.

 

[pmaloney]

Nice video! Thanks and have a good weekend.:smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Used my first April IFT to exit my position of fully in stocks (50/50 C & S) and go 100% F fund, COB today.

Using the short term "Rule of 3's", that 3 days of moderate or better daily rises usually is followed by a down day (or more).
But also, as mentioned by some of Tom's recent discussions, as well as Oscar Carboni's video's, Bear Flags have been present recently, and a new one seems to be forming up n the charts (S$P 500 below).
Chart is from earlier this AM...seems its starting to head lower now.



Have been looking at the bullish "Cup and Handle" formation on the F-Fund recently. Decided to double up on this one move bet and go F instead of G. We'll see.

 

[badgerland]

are you really down over 8% this year? maybe the rule of 3's isn't working out

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Should have listened to the rule more often, or just stay in stocks 100%.
But could have been worse Badger. I could have been one of those idiots who bought into Crypto currencies this year and then lost 50-90%.

 

[badgerland]

I hear ya there - I almost bought ripple and bitcoin but someone wiser than I talked me out of it!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Whew!
Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Used my first April IFT to exit my position of fully in stocks (50/50 C & S) and go 100% F fund, COB today.

Using the short term "Rule of 3's", that 3 days of moderate or better daily rises usually is followed by a down day (or more).
But also, as mentioned by some of Tom's recent discussions, as well as Oscar Carboni's video's, Bear Flags have been present recently, and a new one seems to be forming up n the charts (S$P 500 below).
Chart is from earlier this AM...seems its starting to head lower now.

View attachment 42992

Have been looking at the bullish "Cup and Handle" formation on the F-Fund recently. Decided to double up on this one move bet and go F instead of G. We'll see.

View attachment 42993

 

[FireWeatherMet]

After 4 straight down days (and today flirting to be the 5th) will use 2nd April IFT to jump from the F fund (not as safe as I thought it might be) and take a brief plunge into stocks (50% S and 50% I).

When there's blood in the streets, that's the best time to buy in. At least for a brief "relief rally".

 

[Khotso]

After 4 straight down days (and today flirting to be the 5th) will use 2nd April IFT to jump from the F fund (not as safe as I thought it might be) and take a brief plunge into stocks (50% S and 50% I).

When there's blood in the streets, that's the best time to buy in. At least for a brief "relief rally".

Good luck FWM! Hope you are right.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Looks like we've cracked the trend of lower highs and have jumped above the Descending Trend Line and 50-day MA for 2 days.
Dare we say....BREAKOUT????

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 2nd IFT to shift from previous monthly position of 50I and 50S and trade the I for the C.
Going 50% S and 50% C as of COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Considering using 1st IFT to get out of current stock position (50%S and 50% C) and seek temporary shelter in the G.
Up nearly 3% so far this month, and if today finishes up, we would have had 7 of last 8 days up. Nothing goes up much more than that, without a brief reset.
VIX just a few days ago hit a 5 month low. Complacency is high. Up 7 of 8 days on the S&P. Hmmmm....will decide within 10 minutes of trading deadline.

 

[Mcqlives]

LOL...just when we broke the 2780 mark and I was feeling somewhat reassured I read your thread and start getting concerned again.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Make that 8 of 9 up days (if SP finishes positive today).
Using 1st Monthly IFT to lock in approx 3% monthly gains....selling current position of 50% S and 50% C and going 100% G COB today.
Medium range charts still look strong, so will look for better buy in price in the coming days.