04/10/26
Stocks opened lower on Thursday but quickly started to rally and closed near the highs of the posting gains in most of the major indices. Oil was up but closed off its highs following talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. After five straight losing weeks, the S&P 500 has now been up for seven straight days and it is just 2.5% off its all time highs, and just 1% from where it was before the war with Iran started.
The February PCE Prices data came in a little hot sending yields higher, but the reversal in the price of oil helped calm down the bond market. The gain in oil pushed it back above the rising support line, but it is trying to make up its mind, and heading into a weekend, we may see some nerves in play.
The 10-year Treasury Yield filled a gap near yesterday's highs, but there are more open gaps overhead. We also saw the 10-year find support at the 50-day moving average this week.
The dollar was down but the rally in oil did push ACWX (I-fund) lower, although it closed well off its lows. There are plenty of open gaps on this chart to make either direction viable in the short-term.
Here's how the S&P 500 reacted to the intraday movement of the price of oil, and the 10-year yield on Thursday, with a change in direction after word of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) daily chart pushed right up to the descending resistance line. These don't tend to be as formidable as longer-term resistance, or double tops / bottoms, but it was a convenient place for the S&P 500 to peak yesterday. The gap below is still very much open and obvious, and perhaps too obvious as everyone is talking about it. As I mentioned yesterday, like the 2025 tariff tantrum rebound, the fear that kept folks on the sidelines during this Iran war, may be what keeps the rebound going as FOMO kicks in. But the typical reaction would be to see some backing and filling, but the market may not make it that easy.
The Transportation Index made another attempt at a breakout to new highs, and on Thursday it succeeded. That was pretty impressive given the size of the rally over the last couple of weeks and hitting a double top on Wednesday.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 posted moderate gains, but the impressive part here was the positive reversal action. The gap is open here so no one is comfortable - bulls or bear.
There's a lot going on, but despite the heavy dose of geopolitical news headlines that everyone is focused on, I'm noticing that the mid-term election year seasonality chart is doing a good job of calling the shots. It suggested a low near the end of March, a rally in the first part of April, but maybe some kind of peak later this month. It is not a primary indicator, but there it is, and make of it what you will.
Source: https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/midterm-elections-markets-5-charts.html
The March CPI data comes out this morning. The data will be hot because of the price of oil so it will depend on where it falls inline with consensus estimates which are between +0.06% and +0.07%, and some estimates are as high as 1.0% for the month. The February CPI was +0.03%.
Admin Note: From tsp.gov: "Scheduled System Maintenance: Due to scheduled system maintenance, My Account will be unavailable Saturday, April 11, from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern time. Thank you for your patience while we work to improve your TSP experience."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) held up well but didn't advance much as the descending resistance line seems to be holding it back. The question is whether this is just a temporary stall after the big rally, or if it will be the end of the rebound. The overall picture looks bullish, as there are a lot of good signs out there, but this is what it is until it can get past the resistance.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved higher but it remains in the wedge, with large open gaps above and below pushing and pulling it for attention. The 10-year yield is in a similar situation where support and resistance are battling it out.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened lower on Thursday but quickly started to rally and closed near the highs of the posting gains in most of the major indices. Oil was up but closed off its highs following talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. After five straight losing weeks, the S&P 500 has now been up for seven straight days and it is just 2.5% off its all time highs, and just 1% from where it was before the war with Iran started.
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The February PCE Prices data came in a little hot sending yields higher, but the reversal in the price of oil helped calm down the bond market. The gain in oil pushed it back above the rising support line, but it is trying to make up its mind, and heading into a weekend, we may see some nerves in play.
The 10-year Treasury Yield filled a gap near yesterday's highs, but there are more open gaps overhead. We also saw the 10-year find support at the 50-day moving average this week.
The dollar was down but the rally in oil did push ACWX (I-fund) lower, although it closed well off its lows. There are plenty of open gaps on this chart to make either direction viable in the short-term.
Here's how the S&P 500 reacted to the intraday movement of the price of oil, and the 10-year yield on Thursday, with a change in direction after word of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) daily chart pushed right up to the descending resistance line. These don't tend to be as formidable as longer-term resistance, or double tops / bottoms, but it was a convenient place for the S&P 500 to peak yesterday. The gap below is still very much open and obvious, and perhaps too obvious as everyone is talking about it. As I mentioned yesterday, like the 2025 tariff tantrum rebound, the fear that kept folks on the sidelines during this Iran war, may be what keeps the rebound going as FOMO kicks in. But the typical reaction would be to see some backing and filling, but the market may not make it that easy.
The Transportation Index made another attempt at a breakout to new highs, and on Thursday it succeeded. That was pretty impressive given the size of the rally over the last couple of weeks and hitting a double top on Wednesday.
The small caps of the Russell 2000 posted moderate gains, but the impressive part here was the positive reversal action. The gap is open here so no one is comfortable - bulls or bear.
There's a lot going on, but despite the heavy dose of geopolitical news headlines that everyone is focused on, I'm noticing that the mid-term election year seasonality chart is doing a good job of calling the shots. It suggested a low near the end of March, a rally in the first part of April, but maybe some kind of peak later this month. It is not a primary indicator, but there it is, and make of it what you will.
Source: https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/midterm-elections-markets-5-charts.html
The March CPI data comes out this morning. The data will be hot because of the price of oil so it will depend on where it falls inline with consensus estimates which are between +0.06% and +0.07%, and some estimates are as high as 1.0% for the month. The February CPI was +0.03%.
Admin Note: From tsp.gov: "Scheduled System Maintenance: Due to scheduled system maintenance, My Account will be unavailable Saturday, April 11, from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern time. Thank you for your patience while we work to improve your TSP experience."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) held up well but didn't advance much as the descending resistance line seems to be holding it back. The question is whether this is just a temporary stall after the big rally, or if it will be the end of the rebound. The overall picture looks bullish, as there are a lot of good signs out there, but this is what it is until it can get past the resistance.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved higher but it remains in the wedge, with large open gaps above and below pushing and pulling it for attention. The 10-year yield is in a similar situation where support and resistance are battling it out.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
