FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

This drop might be as good (or bad) as it gets these days. Going in 50 S and 50 I.

 

[PLANO]

This drop might be as good (or bad) as it gets these days. Going in 50 S and 50 I.

I wish I had waited until today like you, but I got to eat yesterday's loss instead :blink:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I wish I had waited until today like you, but I got to eat yesterday's loss instead :blink:

Can't ever time things to the exact day. Just have to be "in the ballpark".

 

[nasa1974]

Can't ever time things to the exact day. Just have to be "in the ballpark".

My luck is usually a "swing and a miss" for strike three and the third out, game over.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Felt a change in direction was best seen on the I Fund, with many of the Euro losses reflected in it.
Like anything...you only go up (or in this case DOWN) so far until sentiment changes.

A look at the I Fund (below) shows a classic sharp drop, deadcat bounce...then a further drop of similar amplitude off the top of the deadcat bounce, to the 150 day EMA.
That seemed like a good time to buy in...and I went half into the I-Fund (other half into the S) under the assumption that the I-Fund might have more upside to recover after being oversold on over-amplified negative news. We'll see, but so far so good.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Given the weakness in small caps recently I was going to change my allocation from 50-S and 50-I into all I Fund.

However after hitting the IFT button on the TSP.gov website at 858 am Pacific Time (1158 am Eastern time; 2 minutes to spare) I wondered if I should wait a day or 2 and let the S fund come back up from a somewhat oversold position.
I saw the official time on my cell phone go from 900 (Pacific time) to 901. I hit the "cancel transaction" button anyway, figuring I had nothing to lose if it was too late. I was sure that I missed it, but upon further review (and a follow-up call to TSP) they told me that my 901 am cancellation would be honored.

So go figure.
I only wish we could make an IFT purchase that late (or even later in the day). That would eliminate a lot of anguish on those reversal days.

 

[Bquat]

Given the weakness in small caps recently I was going to change my allocation from 50-S and 50-I into all I Fund.

However after hitting the IFT button on the TSP.gov website at 858 am Pacific Time (1158 am Eastern time; 2 minutes to spare) I wondered if I should wait a day or 2 and let the S fund come back up from a somewhat oversold position.
I saw the official time on my cell phone go from 900 (Pacific time) to 901. I hit the "cancel transaction" button anyway, figuring I had nothing to lose if it was too late. I was sure that I missed it, but upon further review (and a follow-up call to TSP) they told me that my 901 am cancellation would be honored.

So go figure.
I only wish we could make an IFT purchase that late (or even later in the day). That would eliminate a lot of anguish on those reversal days.

I'm always complaining about the deadline. I would even like if you had an hour to cancel an IFT.

 

[ILoveTDs]

I have a friend who swears he canceals IFT up until closing bell regularly with TSP, a co-worker of mine tried it and stated it didn't work. One could be lying to me, but I would be more surprised if that was the case as oppose to TSP.gov just being inconsistent on the time to canceal and pending IFT.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Lets keep Thursday in perspective for what it was...A morning dip on its way back up to positive territory (again) until a regional geopolitical tragedy occurred.



These dips tend to be very short-lived. I'm staying in.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Made a resolution to ride out any dip if I did not get out in time, since too often I'd get out just as the turnaround occurs.
Tried to not watch the markets too much after getting stuck (again) in a downturn that could have been easily avoided, because I would often fool myself into selling just about the time a turnaround occurs, thus losing double.

What it has been so far:
A 4% downturn on the S&P and about 6% on the S. And dip held above the 150 Day EMA which seems to have been the "bottom benchmark" past 2 years.
Now, (watching markets a bit more closely now) I think we are back in the turnaround, recovering more than half of the recent dip and being above key 20 & 50 Day EMA's, which have NOT crossed.
Remain "ALL IN" and will follow more closely as we get to new highs, since volatility has increased overall with all geopolitical issues.
However, the world has a way of getting used to Ukraine/Syria crisis's

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The decision to "ride it out" has paid off (as it basically has the past 5 years). S&P back up to new highs and other indices approaching theirs.

However, with 2 IFT's still in hand, will exit COB today into the G. Main reason is that the upward slope has been so sharp (below) that a normal 1-2 day sell off due to profit taking is almost imminent. But given our recent drop, it would make sense that more upside is to come, so I plan on returning back to stocks shortly (maybe Tue-Wed next week).

 

[WorkFE]

so I plan on returning back to stocks shortly (maybe Tue-Wed next week).

I hate doing that right before a Holiday but I was considering the same thing due to the new month being underway after the weekend.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I hate doing that right before a Holiday but I was considering the same thing due to the new month being underway after the weekend.

WRKFE,

I agree with you regarding end of month/holiday...but Labor Day is not for another 10 days...right?

 

[nasa1974]

QUOTE=WorkFE;468175]I hate doing that right before a Holiday but I was considering the same thing due to the new month being underway after the weekend.

WRKFE,

I agree with you regarding end of month/holiday...but Labor Day is not for another 10 days...right?[/QUOTE]

Yep, Monday September 1st.

 

[WorkFE]

It wont be another ten days on (maybe Tue-Wed next week)

That's my thinking. If I did not want to play the weekend it would be a 2-3 day play only. Also, what are the TSP hours for next friday (29th).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

It wont be another ten days on (maybe Tue-Wed next week)

That's my thinking. If I did not want to play the weekend it would be a 2-3 day play only. Also, what are the TSP hours for next friday (29th).

Thats a good question. On some holidays trading closes early. The nice thing for us is that we can make a trade right up against the closing price instead of having a few hrs to get a surprise reversal. I don't normally remember TSP being closed all day a day before Labor Day. Have seen that on some major holidays like X-Mas and Good Friday I think.

 

[Frixxxx]

Thats a good question. On some holidays trading closes early. The nice thing for us is that we can make a trade right up against the closing price instead of having a few hrs to get a surprise reversal. I don't normally remember TSP being closed all day a day before Labor Day. Have seen that on some major holidays like X-Mas and Good Friday I think.

Early Closure dates/times for 2014
July 3rd, 1300
November 28th, 1300
December 24th, 1300

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With one IFT still left for August, will be moving from all G to 100% S COB today.

Main reasons...a look at the longer term trend-line shows we still have some upside, perhaps to the 2030-2050 range on the S&P (below).
Also, when in doubt I like to look where some of our "Top Guns" are, and I noticed JTH went 100% S a few days ago, so I don't mind tagging along.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

...we still have some upside, perhaps to the 2030-2050 range on the S&P (below).


View attachment 30108

So far everything is on track.
Again will consider exiting as we approach 2030 or so...but hopefully getting back in before the end of the month.