FireWeatherMet Account Talk

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Listen, I'm a guy that still clips coupons and owns stock in the company that prints them - so if I see a penny on the ground you can believe I'll bend over and pick it up. I still wish I had my penny collection that I started in the mid to late 1950s - you just can't find those late dates anylonger. I sold my penny booklets to a local doctor for next to nothing. New records should be achieved today.
 
Birchtree said:
Listen, I'm a guy that still clips coupons and owns stock in the company that prints them - so if I see a penny on the ground you can believe I'll bend over and pick it up. I still wish I had my penny collection that I started in the mid to late 1950s - you just can't find those late dates anylonger. I sold my penny booklets to a local doctor for next to nothing. New records should be achieved today.
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I pick up all the change from the ground....I drop it in the Coinstar (when change jar is filled) at my supermarket which gives me a commission free card to use there. I like it when careless people buy my groceries!
 
Coins become heavy in the pocket and can sometimes bring about holes. What I do is scatter them all around the grassy playground hill when nobody is looking and watch the kids go treasure hunting. Happy faces...priceless! :D
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Some of the craziness we've seen lately has been a little hard to chart, with the vastly differing patterns on the Large Caps, Small Caps, and Tech indices.

But it seems pretty obvious that the tech sector, especially the Biotech sector, has been the main leader in the recent downturn. So, to see where exactly we are on the cycle and make a judgement where the overall market is headed next, I decided to take a closer look at an index that I don't follow too closely. The NASDAQ Biotech Index.

A look at its longer term peak trend-line tells a big part of the story...Biotech was in a nice steady upward trend before mixing Mega Steroids with its New years Eve champagne and rocketing straight up about 22% in less than 8 weeks! That put it so far above its trend-line that money managers, analysts had no choice but sell at those drastically over-bought levels not seen since 1999-2000. When the sell off came, it came hard, over a similar time frame (7 weeks), down...guess what...almost 22%.

The downward pattern had some nice complexity, with 2-3 dead-cat bounces before settling below both the long term bottom channel trend-line and the 200 EMA...for a low on April 14th. Since then, a short rise and choppy sideways churning for about 3 weeks.

To me, this pattern lends me to believe that Biotech indeed DID bottom about 3 weeks ago.
6-8 weeks and +20% is a good temporal/percentage combo for a total correction, as is a settling below the 200 day EMA and longer term bottom channel trend-line.

View attachment 28586

So what does this all mean to me?
Call me crazy, but I think Biotech is done falling and is primed to take back at least some of its lost price.
For the major indices that should lead to a nice springboard to jump with up along the "wall of worry" that is still out there, largely from geo-political issues that may have little economic bearing at this point, as well as the "Sell in May" fear.

So I am putting (or keeping) my money where my mouth is :laugh:, staying all in (50% S and 50% C).

If anyone has any different take on all this, I am always willing to hear it (and be convinced by it if the argument is strong enough). :)
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We talked about this last night, and sure enough, even while the large caps are up near 1% and small caps 1.5-2%...Biotech is leading the way up today.

NasdaqBiotech.png
 
VIX comparison to S&P
​

Even though I think we're headed higher overall there is a short term argument for getting out now, esp if you have an extra IFT.

Seems there is very little to be gained (and much more to lose) from waiting more than a few days after a periodic (1-2 month) VIX bottom.
BUT...main question is have we had our recent bottom, or is a new bottom on the way if we go on a 2-4 day tear? THAT is the million dollar question.;)


Vix.jpg
 
FireWeatherMet said:
VIX comparison to S&P
​

Even though I think we're headed higher overall there is a short term argument for getting out now, esp if you have an extra IFT.

Seems there is very little to be gained (and much more to lose) from waiting more than a few days after a periodic (1-2 month) VIX bottom.
BUT...main question is have we had our recent bottom, or is a new bottom on the way if we go on a 2-4 day tear? THAT is the million dollar question.;)


View attachment 28727
Click to expand...

Great point, another unanswered question (considering the flat price action of late) is, will we put in a reversal after the 3-day weekend and if so which direction?
 
The VIX low readings don't always translate into imminent selloffs. The VIX traded between 10 and 20 for the better part of the bull market that unfolded between 2003 and 2007. Don't jump out until you see the brown of the bear's eyes.
 
JTH said:
Great point, another unanswered question (considering the flat price action of late) is, will we put in a reversal after the 3-day weekend and if so which direction?
Click to expand...
That's why I'm waiting to see Fridays action -- expecting Tuesday to be a post holiday reversal. Since That's what I'm expecting and I tend to be a day late & dollar short, that gives more credence to your expectation that the markets will take off tomorrow. :blink:
 
FireWeatherMet said:
VIX comparison to S&P
​

Even though I think we're headed higher overall there is a short term argument for getting out now, esp if you have an extra IFT.

Seems there is very little to be gained (and much more to lose) from waiting more than a few days after a periodic (1-2 month) VIX bottom.
BUT...main question is have we had our recent bottom, or is a new bottom on the way if we go on a 2-4 day tear? THAT is the million dollar question.;)


View attachment 28727
Click to expand...

IFT into 100% G COB today.

Putting my $$ where my mouth is...VIX is at a 14 month low as of today....S&P is on track to close near all-time highs....and with 2 IFT's still available I used 1 to lock in months (meager) gains and wait to see which direction the inevitable breakdown/breakout goes....per Cactus and JTH's comments.

Was also a little concerned about potential bear flag and wedge patterns forming up, per Tom's daily breakdown.
 
Last edited:
Making IFT (1st of Month) into 100% F fund, effective COB Thursday June 5th.

Going to follow the guy who tearing up towards the top of the Tracker...JTH. I'm even likely to get a better entry price on it...IF we see a brief reversal with stocks topping out at new highs and taking a brief 2-3%.

FYI
Had to do this IFT over the phone with a live TSP rep...had password hang up and getting new one mailed to me. But for others ever in a similar situation (lost your own PW), Yes you can still make an IFT with a live person over the phone as long as you have your Account # and answer a few questions about yourself.
 
As per previous post regarding overly bullish sentiment, here is our latest (unofficial) Sentiment Survey, taken just before 5 pm PDT.

Sentiment.jpg
Unofficially 60% Bulls and 27% Bears
A bullish "sell" signal.

Did a screen capture, and could not help but be amused at Tom's latest advertiser just below the survey chart. :D:D:D

​
 
FireWeatherMet said:
As per previous post regarding overly bullish sentiment, here is our latest (unofficial) Sentiment Survey, taken just before 5 pm PDT.

View attachment 29184
Unofficially 60% Bulls and 27% Bears
A bullish "sell" signal.

Did a screen capture, and could not help but be amused at Tom's latest advertiser just below the survey chart. :D:D:D

​
Click to expand...
Adsense ads are triggered by cookies on your machine, not by my request. ;) Just say'in. Mine shows american express...
 
I have the same worry on the VIX myself my friend. Birchtree even used to mention that he would exit below 15. Do you think it's embedded in the low level because of Quantitative Easing? I used to watch it before to see it touch bottom and spike but as of late it seems not an issue.:confused:
 
[h=1]'Common sense' says look out for a market drop[/h]"...Johnson is looking at the near term and sees plenty of reasons for caution. The situation in Iraq continues to erode, economic growth has been non-existant, inflation is perking up and, again, there’s that nagging sense that stocks are simply due for a pullback if not outright correction. With resistance dead ahead and more than 20% gains over the last 52-weeks Johnson sees the potential for a pullback of 3%, at least."


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/brea...ays-look-out-for-a-market-drop-120156098.html
 
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