FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Lol!
Agreed. Every time I try the -I- just because I think its time, I realize what -I- stands for...-I-n the @$$" cuz thats where it sticks me nearly every time.
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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
Lol!
Agreed. Every time I try the -I- just because I think its time, I realize what -I- stands for...-I-n the @$$" cuz thats where it sticks me nearly every time.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Been holding in the -S- fund since March, riding the "ups and downs", basically paddling but not moving anywhere.
Almost exited to lock in early April gains but thought I would wait for a "higher high". Well that didn't happen, and taking a broader look at the charts it seemed that we were getting "range-bound" on the C and in a downward trend on the S (similar to Nasdaq).
With that in mind, and both IFT's still in hand, a few days ago I was thinking of planing an exit this Friday morning, and avoiding the "Down Monday's" weve had recently. But as we were approaching new highs on the S&P Wed, I noticed things heating up in Ukraine, where Putin continued to say Russia has a right to invade Ern Ukraine if Russian speaking people are harmed. Well Wednesday 5 of those Russian separatists were killed when Ukrainian forces took back some Gov't buildings. Putin's reaction was odd, saying "If" this is true there will be serious consequences. Well, no one doubts it is true, so what was his point? Most likely (to me) is that this could have already decided it for him, but no one announces an invasion, quite often the opposite, they keep it low key. So Thursday morning I decided to use my 1st APril IFT to get out, thinking we could see a sell-off Friday as people would not want to be in the market over the weekend with this potential invasion looming. My thought (hope) is that nothing happens but Monday is another down day (like so many recent Mondays), and would then get in Monday or Tuesday morning if we go oversold, thus (hopefully) riding another "wall of worry" thru the last 1-2 days of April and into Early May.
Almost exited to lock in early April gains but thought I would wait for a "higher high". Well that didn't happen, and taking a broader look at the charts it seemed that we were getting "range-bound" on the C and in a downward trend on the S (similar to Nasdaq).
With that in mind, and both IFT's still in hand, a few days ago I was thinking of planing an exit this Friday morning, and avoiding the "Down Monday's" weve had recently. But as we were approaching new highs on the S&P Wed, I noticed things heating up in Ukraine, where Putin continued to say Russia has a right to invade Ern Ukraine if Russian speaking people are harmed. Well Wednesday 5 of those Russian separatists were killed when Ukrainian forces took back some Gov't buildings. Putin's reaction was odd, saying "If" this is true there will be serious consequences. Well, no one doubts it is true, so what was his point? Most likely (to me) is that this could have already decided it for him, but no one announces an invasion, quite often the opposite, they keep it low key. So Thursday morning I decided to use my 1st APril IFT to get out, thinking we could see a sell-off Friday as people would not want to be in the market over the weekend with this potential invasion looming. My thought (hope) is that nothing happens but Monday is another down day (like so many recent Mondays), and would then get in Monday or Tuesday morning if we go oversold, thus (hopefully) riding another "wall of worry" thru the last 1-2 days of April and into Early May.
Birchtree
Well-known member
There are now 600 Army Rangers bivwacked in Poland with their backup artillery and aircraft - they can move at a moments notice into the Ukraine to road block any offensive Russian foolishness. Obama finally showing some guts and it's about time. I really don't think this chess game is going to have much impact on our economy or markets. I'm remaining all in all the time and continously building inventory.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After exiting into the G Fund last week and avoiding the free-fall Fri and Tdy, I decided to use 2nd April IFT to jump back in COB tdy.
Decided to go 50% C and 50% S.
A look at the S Fund Chart (below - using Vanguard as its Yahoo charting allows better interactive analysis) shows that it is like the Nasdaq, the market leading indicator in this downtrend (blackline). However, the 150 day EMA seems to be a good bottom floor with recent falls, and today we are approaching it.
Given that Mondays have been pretty bad past few weeks and Tuesdays have tended to be "Terrific Tuesdays" recently, I decided to roll the dice and go all in.
We'll see if this timing was any good or not tomorrow. But even if tomorrow is down, I'll stay in since we're lkely close to a short term bottom (again).
Decided to go 50% C and 50% S.
A look at the S Fund Chart (below - using Vanguard as its Yahoo charting allows better interactive analysis) shows that it is like the Nasdaq, the market leading indicator in this downtrend (blackline). However, the 150 day EMA seems to be a good bottom floor with recent falls, and today we are approaching it.
Given that Mondays have been pretty bad past few weeks and Tuesdays have tended to be "Terrific Tuesdays" recently, I decided to roll the dice and go all in.
We'll see if this timing was any good or not tomorrow. But even if tomorrow is down, I'll stay in since we're lkely close to a short term bottom (again).
JTH
Well-known member
Good observations, if I were going to use up the last IFT this month, Monday certainly seems to be the best of the 3 days to choose from.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Time to take what you made and go into the -F- fund for a few months?
Why Investors Expect To "Sell In May And Go Away"
FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 04/28/2014 06:59 PM ET
Some excerpts, pertinent to current conditions compared to other historical market tops:
"The stock market tends to be weak from April to June in midterm election years," says Simon Maierhofer, founder of San Diego, Calif.-based iSPYETF.com. He expects to see a correction in May and June, followed by a year-end rally into late 2014 or early 2015. He recommends that investors sell short to profit from falling prices, depending on how much risk they can tolerate."
"Many technical indicators are flirting with levels seen at previous market peaks, foreshadowing a correction, says Brad Lamensdorf, chief investment officer of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report in Westport, Conn. Currently 41.4% of total household assets are invested in stocks, which is similar to levels seen at the previous market peak in 2007, Lamensdorf wrote in his newsletter Friday."
"Shaky Batch Of IPOs: Some 83% of initial public offerings have unproven business models and negative earnings, reminiscent of the Internet bubble in March 2000 when an all-time record 84% of IPOs had negative earnings, Lamensdorf notes. Furthermore, margin debt — the amount of money that investors have borrowed from their brokers — has reached an all-time high. Borrowers will eventually have to pay it back by selling their holdings."
Read More At Investor's Business Daily:
Why Stock Market Strategists Expect To "Sell In May And Go Away" - Investors.com
Why Investors Expect To "Sell In May And Go Away"
FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 04/28/2014 06:59 PM ET
Some excerpts, pertinent to current conditions compared to other historical market tops:
"The stock market tends to be weak from April to June in midterm election years," says Simon Maierhofer, founder of San Diego, Calif.-based iSPYETF.com. He expects to see a correction in May and June, followed by a year-end rally into late 2014 or early 2015. He recommends that investors sell short to profit from falling prices, depending on how much risk they can tolerate."
"Many technical indicators are flirting with levels seen at previous market peaks, foreshadowing a correction, says Brad Lamensdorf, chief investment officer of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report in Westport, Conn. Currently 41.4% of total household assets are invested in stocks, which is similar to levels seen at the previous market peak in 2007, Lamensdorf wrote in his newsletter Friday."
"Shaky Batch Of IPOs: Some 83% of initial public offerings have unproven business models and negative earnings, reminiscent of the Internet bubble in March 2000 when an all-time record 84% of IPOs had negative earnings, Lamensdorf notes. Furthermore, margin debt — the amount of money that investors have borrowed from their brokers — has reached an all-time high. Borrowers will eventually have to pay it back by selling their holdings."
Why Stock Market Strategists Expect To "Sell In May And Go Away" - Investors.com
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
An argument being made that we are at a 5 year top and need to sell now before the 20% correction comes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talk...-we-re-in-for-a-20--correction-145953185.html
Chart showing comparison to now vs 2011 20% correction:
Although there might be other reasons to fear a major correction, I don't buy the rationale/reasoning behind this one for 2 reasons.
1) Chart does not look the same. There was a sharper upward slope in 2011 and a more well defined topping/crowning pattern.
2) What lead to the 2011 correction (and to the toppiness/crowning leading up to it) was purely geopolitical, namely the escalating worries of Greece/PIGS default resulting in Euro collapse along with US Debt Ceiling fight resulting in first ever downgrade of US debt to AA.
Still though, we're on a 5-year run basically straight up bull run. How many runs of 300% or more have we had that went past 5 years?
Something to ponder.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talk...-we-re-in-for-a-20--correction-145953185.html
Chart showing comparison to now vs 2011 20% correction:
Although there might be other reasons to fear a major correction, I don't buy the rationale/reasoning behind this one for 2 reasons.
1) Chart does not look the same. There was a sharper upward slope in 2011 and a more well defined topping/crowning pattern.
2) What lead to the 2011 correction (and to the toppiness/crowning leading up to it) was purely geopolitical, namely the escalating worries of Greece/PIGS default resulting in Euro collapse along with US Debt Ceiling fight resulting in first ever downgrade of US debt to AA.
Still though, we're on a 5-year run basically straight up bull run. How many runs of 300% or more have we had that went past 5 years?
Something to ponder.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
In looking to see what has actually happened over the past few months, especially with the recent downturn...lets look at the downturn leaders...SmallCaps & Nasdaq:
In the Small Caps, from the early March high, we see a 6-week downturn, culminating with the April 11th low.
Afterwards, the trend-line is up...with at least a significant uptrend along the rising "Min" line of "Higher Mins".
A positive high, higher than the previous one in mid April, would cement this as a continuation of the longer term uptrend (green trend-line).
But no reversal is perfect, until of course its in its "mature stages" which is when the dumb money rushes in, while the smart money slides out. Otherwise some "imperfection" of the chart is good. It provides a "wall of worry" that keeps the dumb money away, whole low volume smart money partakes in the rallies.
Nasdaq also showing similar trend-lines:
So bottom line...I'm in, and feel that we are in the early stages of a reversal and are headed for new highs, in accord with the longer term rising trend-line on the top S Fund chart (green).
On that scale, we should see new highs about 10-15% higher than now, by the end of July, before any other serious pullback or top.
But...IF we go lower, we could be at the end of a mini "bear flag" and headed for lower lows after all.:worried:
Example of Bear Flag:
In the Small Caps, from the early March high, we see a 6-week downturn, culminating with the April 11th low.
Afterwards, the trend-line is up...with at least a significant uptrend along the rising "Min" line of "Higher Mins".
A positive high, higher than the previous one in mid April, would cement this as a continuation of the longer term uptrend (green trend-line).
But no reversal is perfect, until of course its in its "mature stages" which is when the dumb money rushes in, while the smart money slides out. Otherwise some "imperfection" of the chart is good. It provides a "wall of worry" that keeps the dumb money away, whole low volume smart money partakes in the rallies.
Nasdaq also showing similar trend-lines:
So bottom line...I'm in, and feel that we are in the early stages of a reversal and are headed for new highs, in accord with the longer term rising trend-line on the top S Fund chart (green).
On that scale, we should see new highs about 10-15% higher than now, by the end of July, before any other serious pullback or top.
But...IF we go lower, we could be at the end of a mini "bear flag" and headed for lower lows after all.:worried:
Example of Bear Flag:
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FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After today's action, everything seems on track to me.
A short sell-off in the first few minutes of the open quickly reversed as buyers came in (below), creating a nice bullish looking tail signature on the today's daily chart.
Ugghh, I hate agreeing with Birchtree, but I have to say it...Let the sweet smell of bull manure permeate the markets this week.
A short sell-off in the first few minutes of the open quickly reversed as buyers came in (below), creating a nice bullish looking tail signature on the today's daily chart.
Ugghh, I hate agreeing with Birchtree, but I have to say it...Let the sweet smell of bull manure permeate the markets this week.
WorkFE
Well-known member
FWM,
What is going on at your old stomping grounds.
Eric LeGrand snubbed by Rutgers after being pulled from commencement speech | FOX Sports on MSN
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/n...of-rutgers-speech-after-student-protests.html
What is going on at your old stomping grounds.
Eric LeGrand snubbed by Rutgers after being pulled from commencement speech | FOX Sports on MSN
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/n...of-rutgers-speech-after-student-protests.html
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Yeah, I don/t think GW Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condi RIce will ever be on anyone's Commencement short list, other than Neocon U.
They're all lucky they are not in Leavenworth or Guantanamo right now.
Not sure what the Eric Lagrande issue is...seems like some mix-up.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Today's Market Song of the Day
"Breakout" by Bon Jovi
"Breakout" by Bon Jovi
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Some of the craziness we've seen lately has been a little hard to chart, with the vastly differing patterns on the Large Caps, Small Caps, and Tech indices.
But it seems pretty obvious that the tech sector, especially the Biotech sector, has been the main leader in the recent downturn. So, to see where exactly we are on the cycle and make a judgement where the overall market is headed next, I decided to take a closer look at an index that I don't follow too closely. The NASDAQ Biotech Index.
A look at its longer term peak trend-line tells a big part of the story...Biotech was in a nice steady upward trend before mixing Mega Steroids with its New years Eve champagne and rocketing straight up about 22% in less than 8 weeks! That put it so far above its trend-line that money managers, analysts had no choice but sell at those drastically over-bought levels not seen since 1999-2000. When the sell off came, it came hard, over a similar time frame (7 weeks), down...guess what...almost 22%.
The downward pattern had some nice complexity, with 2-3 dead-cat bounces before settling below both the long term bottom channel trend-line and the 200 EMA...for a low on April 14th. Since then, a short rise and choppy sideways churning for about 3 weeks.
To me, this pattern lends me to believe that Biotech indeed DID bottom about 3 weeks ago.
6-8 weeks and +20% is a good temporal/percentage combo for a total correction, as is a settling below the 200 day EMA and longer term bottom channel trend-line.
So what does this all mean to me?
Call me crazy, but I think Biotech is done falling and is primed to take back at least some of its lost price.
For the major indices that should lead to a nice springboard to jump with up along the "wall of worry" that is still out there, largely from geo-political issues that may have little economic bearing at this point, as well as the "Sell in May" fear.
So I am putting (or keeping) my money where my mouth is :laugh:, staying all in (50% S and 50% C).
If anyone has any different take on all this, I am always willing to hear it (and be convinced by it if the argument is strong enough).
But it seems pretty obvious that the tech sector, especially the Biotech sector, has been the main leader in the recent downturn. So, to see where exactly we are on the cycle and make a judgement where the overall market is headed next, I decided to take a closer look at an index that I don't follow too closely. The NASDAQ Biotech Index.
A look at its longer term peak trend-line tells a big part of the story...Biotech was in a nice steady upward trend before mixing Mega Steroids with its New years Eve champagne and rocketing straight up about 22% in less than 8 weeks! That put it so far above its trend-line that money managers, analysts had no choice but sell at those drastically over-bought levels not seen since 1999-2000. When the sell off came, it came hard, over a similar time frame (7 weeks), down...guess what...almost 22%.
The downward pattern had some nice complexity, with 2-3 dead-cat bounces before settling below both the long term bottom channel trend-line and the 200 EMA...for a low on April 14th. Since then, a short rise and choppy sideways churning for about 3 weeks.
To me, this pattern lends me to believe that Biotech indeed DID bottom about 3 weeks ago.
6-8 weeks and +20% is a good temporal/percentage combo for a total correction, as is a settling below the 200 day EMA and longer term bottom channel trend-line.
So what does this all mean to me?
Call me crazy, but I think Biotech is done falling and is primed to take back at least some of its lost price.
For the major indices that should lead to a nice springboard to jump with up along the "wall of worry" that is still out there, largely from geo-political issues that may have little economic bearing at this point, as well as the "Sell in May" fear.
So I am putting (or keeping) my money where my mouth is :laugh:, staying all in (50% S and 50% C).
If anyone has any different take on all this, I am always willing to hear it (and be convinced by it if the argument is strong enough).
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JTH
Well-known member
Some of the craziness we've seen lately has been a little hard to chart, with the vastly differing patterns on the Large Caps, Small Caps, and Tech indices.
But it seems pretty obvious that the tech sector, especially the Biotech sector, has been the main leader in the recent downturn. So, to see where exactly we are on the cycle and make a judgement where the overall market is headed next, I decided to take a closer look at an index that I don't follow too closely. The NASDAQ Biotech Index.
A look at its longer term peak trend-line tells a big part of the story...Biotech was in a nice steady upward trend before mixing Mega Steroids with its New years Eve champagne and rocketing straight up about 22% in less than 8 weeks! That put it so far above its trend-line that money managers, analysts had no choice but sell at those drastically over-bought levels not seen since 1999-2000. When the sell off came, it came hard, over a similar time frame (7 weeks), down...guess what...almost 22%.
The downward pattern had some nice complexity, with 2-3 dead-cat bounces before settling below both the long term bottom channel trend-line and the 200 EMA...for a low on April 14th. Since then, a short rise and choppy sideways churning for about 3 weeks.
To me, this pattern lends me to believe that Biotech indeed DID bottom about 3 weeks ago.
6-8 weeks and +20% is a good temporal/percentage combo for a total correction, as is a settling below the 200 day EMA and longer term bottom channel trend-line.
View attachment 28585
So what does this all mean to me?
Call me crazy, but I think Biotech is done falling and is primed to take back at least some of its lost price.
For the major indices that should lead to a nice springboard to jump with up along the "wall of worry" that is still out there, largely from geo-political issues that may have little economic bearing at this point, as well as the "Sell in May" fear.
So I am putting (or keeping) my money where my mouth is:laugh:, staying all in (50% S and 50% C).
If anyone has any different take on all this, I am always willing to hear it (and be convinced by it if the argument is strong enough).
Great analysis, as I sit here quietly trolling along in the F-Fund I really don't have a dog in this fight. While Small Caps and Tech have declined, the Large Caps & Transports have been bound to a trading range. Honestly, it doesn't matter which way the markets eventually break, either ways I'll find a way to make money either in profit gained or the accumulation of shares.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Thanks Jason,
That part about "doesn't matter which way the markets eventually break, either ways I'll find a way to make money either in profit gained or the accumulation of shares" sounds a lot like The Man of White Barked Tree.
All except "trolling along in the F-fund" which of course would be sacrilege (lol)
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JTH
Well-known member
Thanks Jason,
That part about "doesn't matter which way the markets eventually break, either ways I'll find a way to make money either in profit gained or the accumulation of shares" sounds a lot like The Man of White Barked Tree.
All except "trolling along in the F-fund" which of course would be sacrilege (lol)
I remember starting out here in 2007, a 1% down day would freak me out and make think the sky was falling. The longer I watch these stock markets, the more insignificant the daily price action becomes.
To Birchtree a 1% down day is the equivalent of dropping a penny on the ground (he probably wouldn't even bother to pick it up).
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