JTH
Well-known member
I feel like we are closer to 1974 than 2008, with years of pain ahead of us. But in light of recent financial events, perhaps 1974 & 2008 had an ugly baby...
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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
I feel like we are closer to 1974 than 2008, with years of pain ahead of us. But in light of recent financial events, perhaps 1974 & 2008 had an ugly baby...
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
An incredibly rare stock market indicator just flashed bullish for the first time since 2019
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredibly-rare-bullish-stock-market-220437824.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredibly-rare-bullish-stock-market-220437824.html
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After sitting in 50/50 S and I since early February, Indices are starting to lean over, after a decent 5-6 week run-up
I'm using 1st April IFT to go back into safety...100% G COB Today.
I'm using 1st April IFT to go back into safety...100% G COB Today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Seems my fear was misplaced with the "Fake Breakdown" 2 days ago, markets now busting out, as charts, esp S&P looking very bullish, bouncing sharply off the 50 day EMA (chart below), where the 20 is above the 50, is above the 200 EMA.
That rising peak trendline could be our next target (or not, lol). Even if its just a shorter term rally before the "Sell In May" signal, I'll give it a try.
The S fund has underperformed the S&P, and is doing so today, but Tom mentioned some uncertainties in small caps, so I split the difference between the 2.
So with an extra IFT in hand on last trading day of the month, there's no shame in correcting a possible mistake, so leaving G and went 50/50 C & S COB Today.
That rising peak trendline could be our next target (or not, lol). Even if its just a shorter term rally before the "Sell In May" signal, I'll give it a try.
The S fund has underperformed the S&P, and is doing so today, but Tom mentioned some uncertainties in small caps, so I split the difference between the 2.
So with an extra IFT in hand on last trading day of the month, there's no shame in correcting a possible mistake, so leaving G and went 50/50 C & S COB Today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
1st May IFT will run to safety and wait for Debt Ceiling Drama to finish playing out.
I've seen this movie before, 12 years ago...it ends badly...locking in roughly 1% monthly gain...and may jump back into stocks if unexpected debt ceiling agreement occurs.
Leaving 50/50 C and S position and going 100% G COB today.
I've seen this movie before, 12 years ago...it ends badly...locking in roughly 1% monthly gain...and may jump back into stocks if unexpected debt ceiling agreement occurs.
Leaving 50/50 C and S position and going 100% G COB today.
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FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Whew...feel I dodged a bullet with yesterdays exit back to the safety of the -G- Lilypad.
VIX making a huge upward move today.
VIX making a huge upward move today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
(From the Gov't Shutdown/Debt Thread) I agree with many there, that the "fringe" on both Dem and GOP are not going to get their way, even Massie, a very conservative congressman on the rules committee yesterday voted to forward the bill to a vote in the House.
The Senate tends to have more "Adult Leadership" thru its ranks, and many of them still remember the sharp market drop of 20%+ and the Moody's downgrade of US debt back in 2011, back then those who pushed for default, were blamed in the media and by the public, so I feel that yesterdays Rules committee vote was the big hurdle, and that this bill will go thru the House tonight and get passed by the Senate in time for June 5th.
I exited stocks a week ago, locking in modest monthly gains, might even end up in the top 10 for May given this mornings downward action....so considering putting my $$ where my mouth is, and using 2nd May IFT to go back into stocks COB today....at least into the first part of June. Unless I have a clear signal between C and S, I usually split the difference. Given Nvidia was a huge part of the recent S&P rise and could be prone to some profit taking, I decided to lean slight towards small caps. So using 2nd May IFT by leaving 100% G position and going 60% S and 40% C COB today.
The Senate tends to have more "Adult Leadership" thru its ranks, and many of them still remember the sharp market drop of 20%+ and the Moody's downgrade of US debt back in 2011, back then those who pushed for default, were blamed in the media and by the public, so I feel that yesterdays Rules committee vote was the big hurdle, and that this bill will go thru the House tonight and get passed by the Senate in time for June 5th.
I exited stocks a week ago, locking in modest monthly gains, might even end up in the top 10 for May given this mornings downward action....so considering putting my $$ where my mouth is, and using 2nd May IFT to go back into stocks COB today....at least into the first part of June. Unless I have a clear signal between C and S, I usually split the difference. Given Nvidia was a huge part of the recent S&P rise and could be prone to some profit taking, I decided to lean slight towards small caps. So using 2nd May IFT by leaving 100% G position and going 60% S and 40% C COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Really happy with my move back into stocks on the last day of May, paying dividends to the tune of 5.24% so far in June.
When stocks go up so quickly, so fast, I always get worried about the market being overextended in the short-term.
What bothered me even more this past morning, and ALMOST made me lock in profits & bail, was that while main stock indices were up nicely, the VIX skyrocketed UPWARDS, instead of sliding downwards.
Also noticed the C-Fund outperforming Small Caps suddenly the past few days...sometimes a sign that a rally is getting long in the tooth.
But decided I will stay the course at least thru CPI announcement TUE and maybe even Fed announcement later this week.
With price of oil sharply lower than a year ago, CPI should be down sharply. BUT on top of huge rise in stocks, good news on CPI/Rates could push us well into "Overextended & Profit Taking" territory. With 2 June moves still available, can afford a step out, then step back in at a lower price.
We'll see what Tuesday brings...good luck to all.
When stocks go up so quickly, so fast, I always get worried about the market being overextended in the short-term.
What bothered me even more this past morning, and ALMOST made me lock in profits & bail, was that while main stock indices were up nicely, the VIX skyrocketed UPWARDS, instead of sliding downwards.
Also noticed the C-Fund outperforming Small Caps suddenly the past few days...sometimes a sign that a rally is getting long in the tooth.
But decided I will stay the course at least thru CPI announcement TUE and maybe even Fed announcement later this week.
With price of oil sharply lower than a year ago, CPI should be down sharply. BUT on top of huge rise in stocks, good news on CPI/Rates could push us well into "Overextended & Profit Taking" territory. With 2 June moves still available, can afford a step out, then step back in at a lower price.
We'll see what Tuesday brings...good luck to all.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
For reasons mentioned below in previous post, am using 1st IFT to lock in profits, ahead of tomorrows "triple witching day".
Using 1st June IFT to leave 60/40 position of S and C...going 100% G COB today.
Using 1st June IFT to leave 60/40 position of S and C...going 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After 2 day dip in stocks esp small caps, going to jump back in...Left 100% G and went 100% S COB Today using 2nd June IFT.
With Default/Fiscal Cliff off the table, & Inflation cooling steadily, there no longer seem to be any big headwinds for stocks in the short term, other than seasonality....so not going to fall in love with the downside.
Jumping in, hoping the worst of the short term drop is over.
Also, jumping in at this mornings levels, would keep me above all the indices this month, which is the backbone of my system.
With Default/Fiscal Cliff off the table, & Inflation cooling steadily, there no longer seem to be any big headwinds for stocks in the short term, other than seasonality....so not going to fall in love with the downside.
Jumping in, hoping the worst of the short term drop is over.
Also, jumping in at this mornings levels, would keep me above all the indices this month, which is the backbone of my system.
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FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Go FWM -- #3 in June AutoTracker!!
Thanks Tom,
Yes... even a broken clock can be correct twice a day.
It was a good month...stuck to my principles of staying fully invested in stocks, with only a brief exit at a clearly overbought level...followed by re-entrance into whichever fund was leading that month (S).
I wend back in being near 1% ahead of the best monthly fund (S) and still took an additional 2 big down days...but it brings about another analogy I try to remember, from boxing.
"To Get a Knockout...you can't be afraid of getting inside and taking a punch or 2...to land your own". Thats what those 2 big down days after jumping back into stocks felt like...but staying the course, enabled me to get 3-4 big up days to close the month.
I texted you...will go with the cool TSP coffee mug...thanks.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Should be close to 6% COB today...Using 1st July !FT to lock in profits...seems a bit overextended.
WIll keep powder dry for a return back into stocks possibly before end of month.
Leaving 100% S and going 100% G COB today.
WIll keep powder dry for a return back into stocks possibly before end of month.
Leaving 100% S and going 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Thanks Jon,
Yeah, definately breathed a "Sigh of Relief" when flipping on CNBC this AM...while sipping coffee out of the new TSP Mug Tom just sent me, lol.
Got out yesterday on no serious technicals, other than weird feeling in the gut...putting in perspective an over 8% rise in Small Caps last month, on top of over 5% so far in July...being over 13% up in just 7 weeks.
Well, there were some technicals in play also...namely the "Open Gaps" on the S-Fund....the 1st one was down about 3% from yesterdays levels...then a deeper one, over 10% down from yesterdays high water mark.
I didn't see us getting down to that 2nd lower level unless some unforeseen "Black Swan" event suddenly leered its ugly head...but that first open gap at 3% down had me thinking that even if the market continued going up without me the next few days, the overbought froth would likely take it back down to that gap sooner rather than later.
Actually my system was strongly suggesting getting back in today, and locking in a 1% monthly "win" over the S Fund...but technicals making me wait for another 1-2% move lower before jumping back in. FED decision coming up next week, could be the catalyst for that.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
After another decent month...will re-allocate funds for the upcoming month.
Felt pretty good last week about getting another TSPTalk mug for the office place, but given today's action, I could lose my top 5 standing and get "stampeded" by the "S-Herd". lol
Using 2nd July IFT to leave 100% G position and go 100% S by COB today.
Felt pretty good last week about getting another TSPTalk mug for the office place, but given today's action, I could lose my top 5 standing and get "stampeded" by the "S-Herd". lol
Using 2nd July IFT to leave 100% G position and go 100% S by COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Statistical Models have called for an exit from stocks, into safety, since the end of last week, with no re-entrance into equities until mid October. A lot of this is based on seasonality averages, but given the Fed uncertainties and more importantly, the relentless upward drive of oil threatening the end of rate hikes, I will use my 1st Sep move to lock in moderate losses (lol) and head to safety for now.
So leaving 100% S position and going 100% G COB Today.
So leaving 100% S position and going 100% G COB Today.
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