FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Hmmmm???
Maybe the Market lost patience late in the trading day as well, and said "Filling 90% of the gap is close enough"??
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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
Hmmmm???
Maybe the Market lost patience late in the trading day as well, and said "Filling 90% of the gap is close enough"??
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, caught the falling knife a bit early...but we did "officially" fill that huge open gap in the last few minutes.
Now will sit back and watch if we can launch a major recovery in the last hour before the close.
Now will sit back and watch if we can launch a major recovery in the last hour before the close.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
My move into stocks Dec 16th in order to catch a "Santa Claus Rally" seems to have been a bust.
The one thing nagging in my made when I made that IFT was the long term chart (below) showing a continued Downward long term trend.
The other issue I was worried about, was the possibility of another Head & Shoulders pattern setting, up, and that indeed seems to be happening now, ironically with todays big up day.
If todays close finishes were it is at todays IFT deadline, It will still make my IFT a small positive gain, and put me up about 0.30% for Dec.
So with most of the Holiday Santa Rally season over, mostly MIA, and the charts showing another H&S pattern, and potential for another "New Low" in the coming days/weeks, I will be exiting my 100% C position and going 100% G COB today.
The one thing nagging in my made when I made that IFT was the long term chart (below) showing a continued Downward long term trend.
The other issue I was worried about, was the possibility of another Head & Shoulders pattern setting, up, and that indeed seems to be happening now, ironically with todays big up day.
If todays close finishes were it is at todays IFT deadline, It will still make my IFT a small positive gain, and put me up about 0.30% for Dec.
So with most of the Holiday Santa Rally season over, mostly MIA, and the charts showing another H&S pattern, and potential for another "New Low" in the coming days/weeks, I will be exiting my 100% C position and going 100% G COB today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
2022 Annual Summary
FWM: -8.03%
S-Fund: -26.26%
C-Fund: -18.13%
I-Fund: -13.94%
F-Fund: -12.83%
G-Fund: + 2.98%
Some bright spots...for the 2nd year in a row, I beat the S fund handily, which has been the best fund in most of the recent years.
But for the 2nd straight year, I failed to recognize which fund (G in 2022 and C in 2021) would be the "Best Fund" to stay parked in for most of the year.
I tried correcting that in late December, when the Santa Rally failed to materialize, making it unlikely we would see a sustained rally in early January 2023.
The old adage of "DON'T FIGHT THE FED" which worked so well for "Buy & Holders" since 2009, stands true now, but for the opposite reason.
The economy remains strong, unemployment at record low levels, keeping worker wages high, its unlikely to see inflation drop quickly, although it will probably continue its gradual decline from the early summer peak.
At the current rate of Inflation fall, it would take 2-3 years to reach the Fed target rate of 2%, so even if the Fed slows hikes more, it isn't likely to "pivot" and start cutting rates in the next several months for sure.
With that pushing fixed income investments like the G fund upward, now guaranteeing a safe +4% gain, and major bad news on the financial and global/geopolitical fronts dominating, making stocks seem risky, I don't see this stock decline ending anytime soon.
So while I can pat myself on the back for not losing nearly as much as our funds did, I can continue to adjust my investing strategy to a "Stay in the G, until new lows, then MAYBE do a quick jump in & out".
When the Inflationary/Fed/Russia/China news starts showing a change, is when I'll have to re-evaluate this investment strategy and become more bullish, and determine which funds might be best...until then......:wall:
FWM: -8.03%
S-Fund: -26.26%
C-Fund: -18.13%
I-Fund: -13.94%
F-Fund: -12.83%
G-Fund: + 2.98%
Some bright spots...for the 2nd year in a row, I beat the S fund handily, which has been the best fund in most of the recent years.
But for the 2nd straight year, I failed to recognize which fund (G in 2022 and C in 2021) would be the "Best Fund" to stay parked in for most of the year.
I tried correcting that in late December, when the Santa Rally failed to materialize, making it unlikely we would see a sustained rally in early January 2023.
The old adage of "DON'T FIGHT THE FED" which worked so well for "Buy & Holders" since 2009, stands true now, but for the opposite reason.
The economy remains strong, unemployment at record low levels, keeping worker wages high, its unlikely to see inflation drop quickly, although it will probably continue its gradual decline from the early summer peak.
At the current rate of Inflation fall, it would take 2-3 years to reach the Fed target rate of 2%, so even if the Fed slows hikes more, it isn't likely to "pivot" and start cutting rates in the next several months for sure.
With that pushing fixed income investments like the G fund upward, now guaranteeing a safe +4% gain, and major bad news on the financial and global/geopolitical fronts dominating, making stocks seem risky, I don't see this stock decline ending anytime soon.
So while I can pat myself on the back for not losing nearly as much as our funds did, I can continue to adjust my investing strategy to a "Stay in the G, until new lows, then MAYBE do a quick jump in & out".
When the Inflationary/Fed/Russia/China news starts showing a change, is when I'll have to re-evaluate this investment strategy and become more bullish, and determine which funds might be best...until then......:wall:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Have been on the sidelines for this entire January rally, watching & waiting.
However, during the past week, some things became apparent:
1) Since the October Low, 3 months ago...major indices have made a series of higher Highs, and lower Lows.
2) Recently, the 20 Day moving avg has crossed up above the 50 day...the "Golden Cross" which is a bullish signal that the worst is behind us....and the "Big Money" investing firms look at that stuff.
3) The 200 Day EMA has served as a significant resistance level the past 12 months, and is now being pierced slightly. These last 2 factors occurred previously on the C Fund but now also for 1st time on the S Fund as well. S Fund tends to "lead" during recoveries.
4) Sentiment is still very "Bearish", which is "Bullish" for stocks. One of the most bearish readings just came in from our own Sentiment Survey (bottom chart).
5) So with today starting out negative, but unable to stay down, as buyers coming in 2nd half of the day erased most of the early losses, some indices approaching even.
6) Even with stocks down first part of the day, the VIX was also down slightly, instead of sharply up like one might expect.
So with all that, and the fact that if this is NOT the right call for whatever reason, there are only 5 trading days left in the month, so little to lose in terms of missing a "future rally", leaving the -G- Lilly pad and going all in.
Leaving 100% G and going 50% S.....25% I.....25% C...COB Today.
However, during the past week, some things became apparent:
1) Since the October Low, 3 months ago...major indices have made a series of higher Highs, and lower Lows.
2) Recently, the 20 Day moving avg has crossed up above the 50 day...the "Golden Cross" which is a bullish signal that the worst is behind us....and the "Big Money" investing firms look at that stuff.
3) The 200 Day EMA has served as a significant resistance level the past 12 months, and is now being pierced slightly. These last 2 factors occurred previously on the C Fund but now also for 1st time on the S Fund as well. S Fund tends to "lead" during recoveries.
4) Sentiment is still very "Bearish", which is "Bullish" for stocks. One of the most bearish readings just came in from our own Sentiment Survey (bottom chart).
5) So with today starting out negative, but unable to stay down, as buyers coming in 2nd half of the day erased most of the early losses, some indices approaching even.
6) Even with stocks down first part of the day, the VIX was also down slightly, instead of sharply up like one might expect.
So with all that, and the fact that if this is NOT the right call for whatever reason, there are only 5 trading days left in the month, so little to lose in terms of missing a "future rally", leaving the -G- Lilly pad and going all in.
Leaving 100% G and going 50% S.....25% I.....25% C...COB Today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
And Just Like That...The Gods of "FOMO" Have Struck!
So yesterday I did mention that I only made the move into stocks because there's just a few days left in the month.
That meant...in case the move failed...aka failed at the 200 day EMA long term resistance line, I could still act...and since it has (Tom made good pic of it below), I will quickly correct and go back to safety.
So with 2 new moves coming after just 4 more trading days, I will be leaving my fully invested position and going 100% G COB today.
So yesterday I did mention that I only made the move into stocks because there's just a few days left in the month.
That meant...in case the move failed...aka failed at the 200 day EMA long term resistance line, I could still act...and since it has (Tom made good pic of it below), I will quickly correct and go back to safety.
So with 2 new moves coming after just 4 more trading days, I will be leaving my fully invested position and going 100% G COB today.
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FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Leaving that trap as we speak.
I've found that if a a main assumption has failed you either 1) reverse the move right away, or 2) Stay in and hope for the best.
VIX up over 7% and Tom showed a nice chart, showing the failure at the long term 200 EMA resistance, so..I'm exiting to the -G- Lillypad.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I might have stayed in and rode it out if it was early in the month, but since we get 2 fresh moves next week, we have time to ponder what the next short term bottom might be.
With that, it would not surprise me if we go back up tomorrow, lol. I hate pulling out on down day. but with failure at resistance, and VIX making its biggest 1-day jump in many weeks, I don't see a reason to ride this out.
felixthecat
Member
Very well designed bear trap. I heard a few days ago that the golden cross was just a bear trap in the making. I did not think much about it at the time since I was already in G without moves left. i will say I had doubts we were going to turn down but tech earnings forward guidance is going to lead the market lower and this Ukraine/Russia/US/Germany conflict has ratcheted another notch toward a world conflict. I will stay in this holding pattern until the war conflict has cooled down. We have not seen a market panic yet to form a permanent bottom ending the bear market/recession. Timing is a bit off on agreed entrance into the recession. Still thinking late April/May for developing bull rally. I still don't see the rally in the 10 yr yield to mark the start of the recession and nowhere insight of a marked decline unless what we have now is the beginning of the 10 yr yield decline and we have no recession (skirted it). I believe it is still too early to call it but leaning that we do begin the recession with 10 yr yields rising markedly soon. Let see if the 10 yr yield jumps. I thought bear markets are supposed to end with a bang panic sell. The VIX just has not shown that spike. I'm still in the camp markets will get roiled soon.
FWM just to reiterate what some others have said, I almost jumped in myself this week based on some of what you were talking about above. Honestly I had even considered today's selling as another opportunity. But I am sticking to my strategy, I wanted to give it a few days for things to hold or even move higher before getting back in. I too was looking at the time of month for that chance to get in prior to Feb. IDK what the answer is for all this but know you were not alone in your thinking and even considered a move today. It's really tough, with all these moves we have each month lol, to make the educated decisions prior to the cutoffs. With so much going on, inflation, recession, wars, Fed, Political and Geopolitical, not to mention again, the limited moves. It really is a challenge for us who want to stay on top of things and be as active as we can be, all trying to make some money.
Anyway, hang in there, I think markets have even turned around from this morning. Long tail down on some of these charts but yeah today is not over. Anything can happen and usually does. Expect the unexpected. The markets usually do the opposite of what the majority thinks will happen anyway lol.
Anyway, hang in there, I think markets have even turned around from this morning. Long tail down on some of these charts but yeah today is not over. Anything can happen and usually does. Expect the unexpected. The markets usually do the opposite of what the majority thinks will happen anyway lol.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
WHEW, this was a nice turn of events!
Reaffirms my belief that when I make a move, the market will instantly move opposite of what I expected! lol
This brings the market back to even, and indices sitting right back at resistance (below).
If resistance holds, and market CLOSES lower tomorrow, then today was an excellent escape to safety.
If resistance (200 EMA) is broken next day or 2, then I can get back in middle of next week.
Reaffirms my belief that when I make a move, the market will instantly move opposite of what I expected! lol
This brings the market back to even, and indices sitting right back at resistance (below).
If resistance holds, and market CLOSES lower tomorrow, then today was an excellent escape to safety.
If resistance (200 EMA) is broken next day or 2, then I can get back in middle of next week.
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FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, long story short, from my previous post last week, saying that if long term resistance is broken and holds for more than 3 or 4 days, I'm going all in, Bull Market mode.
Chart below of SP confirms that, and I like market starting low. Don't expect any FED surprises other than another small hike and some semi-hawkish talk.
Leaving 100% G and going 50% S and 50% I COB Today. Despite using S&P for chart indicators, if we are starting a Bull Market trend, Small Caps should lead the way, and I fund has outperformed also inpast month. May use 2nd Feb move to shift $$ into one or the other, depending on how things go.
Chart below of SP confirms that, and I like market starting low. Don't expect any FED surprises other than another small hike and some semi-hawkish talk.
Leaving 100% G and going 50% S and 50% I COB Today. Despite using S&P for chart indicators, if we are starting a Bull Market trend, Small Caps should lead the way, and I fund has outperformed also inpast month. May use 2nd Feb move to shift $$ into one or the other, depending on how things go.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Today's action actually makes me more bullish and glad I jumped into stocks 2 days ago.
After going up 10-15% in parabolic fashion, a 1% dip in equities actually levels off the steepness of the rise a bit on the charts.
Maybe even more important, with a big 1%+ drop on the S&P, the VIX actually went DOWN over 2%.
So all major technicals are now all screaming "Bull Market", where after a 20-30% fall (-40% Small Caps) past year, we're in a reverse pattern since the OCT lows, now 4 months in the rear view mirror.
Major long term downtrend line has been broken as well as 200 MA, for almost 2 weeks. We've briefly pierced the 200 MA in the past for just a few days, but always failed.
Blowing way thru that level AND the long term trendline for 10 days now is a strong breakout signature that I cannot ignore. As well as the recent "Golden Cross".
We actually have "Full Bull Market" on the charts, with the 20 MA now above the 50, and 50 MA now above the 200...for the 1st time in 12 months.
I'm planning to stay in equities 80-90% of the time from now onward, unless a "Black Swan" leers its ugly head.
Market trying to digest the powerful jobs report of 500K Jobs in Jan, which certainly pushes the "Recession" Fear off the table for now, but leaves a possible question for Inflation, although on that front CPI was down sharply past month. Interesting comments on CNBC's "The Closing Bell" where John Mowrey, NFJ investment Group chief investment officer, said he was super bullish, saying that this is the most hated rally in years, mainly because most large scale investors were not ready for it, and stayed positioned defensively for too long. So there's a lot more $$ that can get thrown into stocks over the next few weeks/months. In the immortal words of Birchtree "The Smell of Bull Manure is Wafting All Around...I don't think it's possible for me to be more bullish!!!"
After going up 10-15% in parabolic fashion, a 1% dip in equities actually levels off the steepness of the rise a bit on the charts.
Maybe even more important, with a big 1%+ drop on the S&P, the VIX actually went DOWN over 2%.
So all major technicals are now all screaming "Bull Market", where after a 20-30% fall (-40% Small Caps) past year, we're in a reverse pattern since the OCT lows, now 4 months in the rear view mirror.
Major long term downtrend line has been broken as well as 200 MA, for almost 2 weeks. We've briefly pierced the 200 MA in the past for just a few days, but always failed.
Blowing way thru that level AND the long term trendline for 10 days now is a strong breakout signature that I cannot ignore. As well as the recent "Golden Cross".
We actually have "Full Bull Market" on the charts, with the 20 MA now above the 50, and 50 MA now above the 200...for the 1st time in 12 months.
I'm planning to stay in equities 80-90% of the time from now onward, unless a "Black Swan" leers its ugly head.
Market trying to digest the powerful jobs report of 500K Jobs in Jan, which certainly pushes the "Recession" Fear off the table for now, but leaves a possible question for Inflation, although on that front CPI was down sharply past month. Interesting comments on CNBC's "The Closing Bell" where John Mowrey, NFJ investment Group chief investment officer, said he was super bullish, saying that this is the most hated rally in years, mainly because most large scale investors were not ready for it, and stayed positioned defensively for too long. So there's a lot more $$ that can get thrown into stocks over the next few weeks/months. In the immortal words of Birchtree "The Smell of Bull Manure is Wafting All Around...I don't think it's possible for me to be more bullish!!!"
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Interesting take on stocks due to historical technicals.
Curious to what others think.
Curious to what others think.
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