Well, I had a slightly lower buy in price available a few days ago, below when I exited stocks in July (S&P was 2137 when I exited).
However, I feel a better buy in price will be coming soon...maybe later this week if the Fed surprises.
Actually, I won't be surprised if the Fed raises. Many experts are using some negative data last week to justify the Fed standing pat, but I don't think the Fed goes "day to day" with data, they look for trends and larger scale factors. On that note:
1) Job growth has averaged over 210,000 past 3 months, before that it the average was around 170,000/mo for the first part of the year.
2) Wage growth went up a record rate in 2015....and is now near pre-Recession levels of 2007-2008.
3) If not now, then when? If economic conditions flatten out in the coming months, especially globally, the Fed may not have a better window to raise a "measly 0.25%".
4) Because most of the "experts" say the Fed won't. I don't think the Fed likes to be told ahead of time by pundits what they will/won't do.:smile:
The market has already begun to breakdown with higher volatility. Even if the Fed doesn't raise, it seems like the market is looking for a reason to continue to selloff, and might "sell the news". See "bear flag" formation below (off Tom's daily report).
If the Fed does raise, then the selloff would likely be fast and furious, since it would not be baked into the equation.
Other wildcards....Bank of Japan has big announcement as well, and many worry that it will disappoint because its largely out of bullets. And US election uncertainty and improving Trump poll numbers could make markets nervous (according to Mark Cuban as well as other economists who think he would lead the US into recession).
For all these reasons, I think I will watch anxiously from the sidelines....but getting ready to jump back in soon if there is a panic selloff...or at least a selling to 5% down from our high near 2190...which would be near 2090.
Good Luck everyone.
