FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Locking in profits today and leaving my 50% S and 50% C position...going 100% F.

Stock surge past week and a half has been quite parabolic...mostly news driven, starting with expected certainty of an HRC victory Mon-Tue, followed by huge volatility and exuberance of what a deregulated DJT business climate could offer.
Now that news has set in, things have slowed and started to look like they might roll over a bit on the stock front, especially S fund which is right up near all-time highs (minus todays action). BTW these charts come from Tom's commentary, and he's shown some unfilled gaps in the red boxes.

At the same time in the past week and a half, the F fund has taken a huge plunge, on of the biggest I can remember and is so far below the 200 day MA that there is a very good chance we could see a short term "oversold" bounce back.

So with still having 2 IFT's in hand, I used my 1st to briefly exit into the F and see if we can get a short term spike-up, as the S fund (and maybe other indices) take a healthy breather and fill some recent gaps).

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, I lost a bit (missed out on some more gain) by leaving stocks a bit early.
But a look at this mornings Sentiment Chart still makes me feel OK about it.
Dumb Money Talking = Smart Money Walking = :Flush:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

An interesting read from "The Oracle from Omaha" and why he's like the EF Hutton commercial of the 1970's. (lol)
For those who aren't that old...see below

Warren Buffet's 17 Year Prediction
Surprise! Warren Buffett turns out to be more prescient about stocks than politics - Yahoo Finance

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Leaving 100% F and going in 50% S and 50% C by COB Today

 

[Mcqlives]

Leaving 100% F and going in 50% S and 50% C by COB Today

LOL...I knew you were going contrarian and into the markets before I even opened your post.

 

[WorkFE]

Leaving 100% F and going in 50% S and 50% C by COB Today

I was pretty close to pulling the trigger myself.

 

[nnuut]

Leaving 100% F and going in 50% S and 50% C by COB Today

REALLY?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Up 4 straight days...

Thinking of using 1st IFT of month to take a brief breather.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Got my IFT in with a few minutes to spare this morning.

Leaving 50% S and 50% C...and going 50% G and 50% F.

This might be just a short term, 1-4 day play...we'll see. Whenever we're up more than 3 days in a row, its rare that we don't kick back towards the lower end of the rising trading channel, even in a still rising market. I'm still medium to long term bullish.

Tom has a nice chart of the S&P channel in his daily discussion...and that end candlestick was before today's 0.52% rise.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 2nd Feb IFT to go back into stocks. 50% C and 50% S COB Today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Not liking to move on a "quadruple witching Friday" but I have to respect the charts showing cracks for sometime, including the Dow Transports leading the downturn, and S&P showing a possible double top crown.
Will use 1st IFT to go 100% G.

Often I go into safety with 50/50 G/F but with rising rates I might not sleep well in that scenario.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Whew!!!:Flush:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 2nd IFT to move back into equities. 50% C and 50% S COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Tom mentioned in his evening discussion the last time we had Consumer Confidence this high (Dec 2000), we were just off our peak and on the downside.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/4016-follow-through.html

Even though the time scales are a bit off...we are mimicking that chart pattern with the recent CC report.


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[FireWeatherMet]

Selling on short 3 day "semi-flat rally". Using 1st IFT to go 50% G and 50% F.

These last few days are looking like "bear-flagish" on the S&P (below) as well as the Dow Transports.



Dow Transports from Tom's Evening Commentary...(he does better charts than I do:smile

 

[nasa1974]

I'm OK with the "C & S" funds going a little bearish as long as the "I" fund stays on the bullish side. :laugh:

 

[rspring]

Selling on short 3 day "semi-flat rally". Using 1st IFT to go 50% G and 50% F.

These last few days are looking like "bear-flagish" on the S&P (below) as well as the Dow Transports.

View attachment 41233

Dow Transports from Tom's Evening Commentary...(he does better charts than I do:smile

My thoughts are that we broke out of the 2353 channel to the upside, the vix is falling and there is talk back on about tax reform. If we get any confirmation on the tax reform I think we will have a blow off top. Time will tell.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Reversed course...with markets digesting tax plan and not free-falling on it...and WH agreeing to keep ACA subsidies in place makes Gov't shutdown/showdown less likely.

Decided to go with some International exposure, as many analysts on CNBC have been hitting Europe for better growth...so went 50/50 I and S.

Want to be invested going into early part of next week, THEN will re-evaluate.

My thoughts are that we broke out of the 2353 channel to the upside, the vix is falling and there is talk back on about tax reform. If we get any confirmation on the tax reform I think we will have a blow off top. Time will tell.

You might be right...decided to take your word on it. :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Lat few days making me feel good about putting half my $$ in the I-fund.

If I weren't holding out for another chance to drop out of market and buy back in, I would shift the other half into the I-fund as well.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I exited from 50/50 S and I...into 100% G COB today.
Up just under 1% for the month so far, so as long as we don't crater in the afternoon, should still be able to hold onto 2/3rds of that.

Super low (23 yr low) VIX yet we've been struggling to match market highs of 8 weeks ago on the S&P....and looking like we're starting to roll over, as doubts about the "Trump Trade" from the smart money seems to be slowly building, while sentiment with the rest of the crowd "the dumb money" is as bullish as its been in awhile.






Everything has run up the past 5-6 months on the promise of better economic conditions, mainly via tax cuts (which first require HC repeal). Looks like neither happens this year.
Great video chart analysis on CNBC showed how the charts show the "Trump Trade" to essentially be over now (link to video below).
I feel that a much better buy in price will be available in 2 weeks.

There was nothing there: Analyst