FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Whew...glad I locked in Monthly profits last week.



Reasons are likely a "Black Swan" geopolitical event. Impeachment odds, while not certain...have gone up significantly in the past 24 hrs.
An analogue event...the Nixon Watergate Investigation...led to a yearlong bear market decline from previous highs...S&P dropping 50% in a year.



Interesting article:

Here's what the stock market did during Watergate — and why

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-stock-market-watergate-133736317.html

 

[FireWeatherMet]

My system is calling for me to get in...actually was doing it yesterday...so I may be a day late, but going all in...I-Fund COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A predictor with a perfect track record on the American economy is moving closer to signaling a recession

Interest rate spreads close to signaling recession - Business Insider

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 1st monthly IFT to exit from I to G...COB today.
Low VIX, exiting temporarily...hope to get back in before end of next week, depending on what the market serves up.

 

[Mcqlives]

wish I had a move left.... I would be doing the same.

 

[Tsunami]

wish I had a move left.... I would be doing the same.

You can make unlimited moves to the G fund. I did that today when the S&P was sitting at my target of 2450, and of course now it's crumbling and keeping me from topping +6% at the end of June, unless the buyers step up.

 

[emily]

If it's the G fund you want to go to you should be able to.

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks guys...I know about the G fund move. I guess I should have phrased things better but was in a rush...what I should have said is something like this...

Due to the stupidity/greediness of the managers of the TSP funds we are limited to 2 lousy moves per month with a fail safe of unlimited moves to the G. Since I have already used one of those 2 allocated moves this month, this restriction prohibits me from exiting to the G fund without giving up my ability to be invested in the C/S/I on July 3rd.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

You can contact Amoeba about how many "G moves" you can do in a month...he's the record holder.

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks guys...I know about the G fund move. I guess I should have phrased things better but was in a rush...what I should have said is something like this...

Due to the stupidity/greediness of the managers of the TSP funds we are limited to 2 lousy moves per month with a fail safe of unlimited moves to the G. Since I have already used one of those 2 allocated moves this month, this restriction prohibits me from exiting to the G fund without giving up my ability to be invested in the C/S/I on July 3rd.

You can move to the G fund now and move back in on 2 July with one of your new IFTs for the month.

 

[Whipsaw]

Nevermind, I should have looked at the calendar first... :-/

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Using 1st monthly IFT to exit from I to G...COB today.
Low VIX, exiting temporarily...hope to get back in before end of next week, depending on what the market serves up.

Whew!



Now my system has me looking to get back in, as early as Wed, depending on how the market opens.

 

[weatherweenie]

Follow the bouncing ball!

Whew!

View attachment 41726

Now my system has me looking to get back in, as early as Wed, depending on how the market opens.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Did not have time to update earlier here, but took the morning downturn as an opportunity to buy back in at a lower price.

Going in full into stocks...60% I and 40% S by COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Up at New highs (some indices) VIX at a new low, and we've been up a few days (including today barring something unforeseen).

Seems like a good time to use 1st IFT of the month to lock in gains (was in half S and half I all month). Went 100% G COB today
Will look to jump back in on the 1st big down day next week, if its there.

 

[nasa1974]

I got my sticky pants on and going to ride the "S" train for awhile.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Not much time, will elaborate later, but with one last IFT left, and sitting in safety of G, I am going in 100% S COB today.

Medium term picture (1-2 weeks) look bad, but after 4 straight down days...if today finishes down...a 1-2 day bounce should occur.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The rationale for jumping back from safety into stocks yesterday (July 31) was for a quick "one and out", hoping today would be a good, albeit short term bounce upward.

But the reason I'm concerned over the next 1-3 weeks, is the Dow Transports having a major correction (from Tom's evening post)

The S&P has been doing a slow roll-over, and either its going to ignore the Transports lead, OR there is just a lot of "irrational exuberance" still in the markets.
However, the open gap on the S&P near 2430 is something Tom Crowley has been talking about a lot as a potential fall-back target
Chart looks kind of "toppy".

So with all this, I am thinking about sliding back out today...call it a failed experiment if the S fund (where I'm in) finishes down today...although as I'm writing this its up a fraction.
Gotta log into TSP.gov and make a decision...5 min left.

 

[Whipsaw]

I was surprised futures were up this morning, the day's performance is more in line with what expectations were being discussed in the market vids.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Going 50% F and 50% G COB today.

F fund showing it might be breaking out.