FireWeatherMet Account Talk

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Sidestepping last week has put me almost 4% above the S&P for just this month (nearly 5% better than S-fund for Feb) if today's levels hold.
My system is screaming for me to get back IN. However, the charts are are showing at least another 1-2% downtrend beyond today's current lows before we get any kind of bounce.
Not sure what I'm going to to do. You can't go wrong going back in on bloodbath days...but how much more blood makes the difference whether you hit a single or hit a homer.

Gotta hand it to Cramer and the "Fibonacci Queen" chart segment he showed 2 weeks ago on Jan 26th (below). They nailed it...saying that the short term rally would not get past last Thursday (Feb 4th). And sure enough, Friday was our 1st free-fall day.

FireWeatherMet said:
We've been on a decent run-up from the most recent low in January, but the charts are not looking bullish right now, and Feb to early March have produced some of our worst market lows in recent memory (March 2009 and March 2003).
Cramer's "Off the Charts" had the Fibonacci Queen saying that any rally from the recent lows would have a tough time getting past the mid 1900's and time-wise should not last beyond this week. Worth a peek...good chart work (below)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/cramer-charts-predict-sp-bounce-will-end-soon.html

Will get out while the going is good. Well actually given some of the losses I've absorbed maybe should re-phrase "while the going is only bad, but not yet catastrophic."
Click to expand...
 
One thing that always amused me last year on my odyssey thru the Tracker, was avoiding the stampede of the "S-Fund Herd"... group of about 120-150 who for some reason decided to just park it in the S-Fund for nearly a year or more.
Whenever they would get close, a near flat or slight change day on the markets might result in me going down (or up) over 100 places on the Tracker. Sometimes the investment goal became to avoid the stampede-lol
I now look back at the herd today...and want to reach out to my fellow members with the main theme of TSPTalk (below)

tsptalklogo3.jpg


Friends....this part of the cycle is not where you want to "buy and hold". That was 2009-2014.
Unless of course, you're holding in the F-Fund.
 
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My system is SCREAMING at me right now to get in. I'm trying to ignore it...if I had 2 moves this month I would go 50% in right now...but with only 1 left......don't know.
Gut tells me today is the blood day and tomorrow will start that way but might reverse...leading to a few days of upward bounce.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
My system is SCREAMING at me right now to get in. I'm trying to ignore it...if I had 2 moves this month I would go 50% in right now...but with only 1 left......don't know.
Gut tells me today is the blood day and tomorrow will start that way but might reverse...leading to a few days of upward bounce.
Click to expand...

Should have listened to my system yesterday (lol).
Probably going in 100% C in a few minutes (have about 10 min to look a few more things over and decide).
 
So far, a very successful move last Friday from G to back into stocks (C fund)...although would have been a perfect move if I had moved in a day earlier like my signals were screaming for me to do.

Main reason why this rally may have some legs...is some very important geopolitical/economic reasons were largely responsible for our prolonged downturn...started to turn the corner and reverse.

Cramer highlighted some of these on his show a few weeks ago:

1) China economy and markets continued down-slide.

2) Oil continuing to fall...with no bottom in sight.

3) European Bank Failure Rumors:

4) Continued Decline in Dow Transports due to Most of the Above.

Well, some interesting news started coming out in the past few days that changed each of those 4 factors in the opposite direction.

1) Zhou (China's Alan Greenspan) came out and basically said that the Yuan will no longer depreciate.
PBOC's Zhou Breaks His Long Silence - Yahoo Finance
Chines markets have also seem to have found (at least an interim) bottom or floor.

2) Oil might have bottomed.
T. Boon Pickens made that call a few weeks ago and everyone laughed at him but he might end up being right.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/pickens-oil-already-bottomed-heres-whats-next.html
Oil up 7% today and over 20% from its recent bottom...as several bi oil producing nations have agreed to cut production.
We might not have much higher to go, but not free-falling to $10 is a great sigh of relief, and now we're going into the spring/summer higher usage period.
Oil up 7 percent as Iran welcomes output freeze without word on cuts - Yahoo News

3) ECB announces European Banks have enough cash reserves...don't need to raise more.
ECB Done Raising Capital Demands on Euro Banks, Nouy Says - Bloomberg Business

4) Dow Transports making a breakout as "Bear Flag" falls apart.

Dow Trans.jpg

So with the 4 major macro-economic factors off the table or markedly better (at least for now), and stocks being "over-sold", this market should move up...and move up fast.
Not sure if our bear market (that began between May and August) is over (it would be 6-9 months-a good enough time period although most go a little longer historically), but as long as the top four factors above stay positive, and no new macro bad news occurs, you want t be IN stocks. Not out.

Unless the market drops to new lows...sitting in safety making nothing while the market shoots up 5% in 3 days is the same as being in stocks when they were falling and taking a 5% loss.
So don't fall in love with the downside...because sooner or later, that takes a big bite out of your backside.
 
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FireWeatherMet said:
So far, a very successful move last Friday from G to back into stocks (C fund)...although would have been a perfect move if I had moved in a day earlier like my signals were screaming for me to do.

Main reason why this rally may have some legs...is some very important geopolitical/economic reasons were largely responsible for our prolonged downturn...started to turn the corner and reverse.

Cramer highlighted some of these on his show a few weeks ago:

1) China economy and markets continued down-slide.

2) Oil continuing to fall...with no bottom in sight.

3) European Bank Failure Rumors:

4) Continued Decline in Dow Transports due to Most of the Above.

Well, some interesting news started coming out in the past few days that changed each of those 4 factors in the opposite direction.

1) Zhou (China's Alan Greenspan) came out and basically said that the Yuan will no longer depreciate.
PBOC's Zhou Breaks His Long Silence - Yahoo Finance
Chines markets have also seem to have found (at least an interim) bottom or floor.

2) Oil might have bottomed.
T. Boon Pickens made that call a few weeks ago and everyone laughed at him but he might end up being right.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/pickens-oil-already-bottomed-heres-whats-next.html
Oil up 7% today and over 20% from its recent bottom...as several bi oil producing nations have agreed to cut production.
We might not have much higher to go, but not free-falling to $10 is a great sigh of relief, and now we're going into the spring/summer higher usage period.
Oil up 7 percent as Iran welcomes output freeze without word on cuts - Yahoo News

3) ECB announces European Banks have enough cash reserves...don't need to raise more.
ECB Done Raising Capital Demands on Euro Banks, Nouy Says - Bloomberg Business

4) Dow Transports making a breakout as "Bear Flag" falls apart.

View attachment 37155

So with the 4 major macro-economic factors off the table or markedly better (at least for now), and stocks being "over-sold", this market should move up...and move up fast.
Not sure if our bear market (that began between May and August) is over (it would be 6-9 months-a good enough time period although most go a little longer historically), but as long as the top four factors above stay positive, and no new macro bad news occurs, you want t be IN stocks. Not out.

Unless the market drops to new lows...sitting in safety making nothing while the market shoots up 5% in 3 days is the same as being in stocks when they were falling and taking a 5% loss.
So don't fall in love with the downside...because sooner or later, that takes a big bite out of your backside.
Click to expand...

Excellent work fireweathermet. You have a good grasp of what moves the world markets. Will be watching your posts as usual to get the next leg up. Thanks so much for the article links. Keep up the good work. 😊
 
SP.png

Woke up this morning to the tune of KC and the Sunshine Band. :smile:

"That's the way...uh-huh uh-huh...I like it...uh-huh uh-huh"

 
felixthecat said:
Excellent work fireweathermet. You have a good grasp of what moves the world markets. Will be watching your posts as usual to get the next leg up. Thanks so much for the article links. Keep up the good work. 
Click to expand...

Thanks felixthecat.
Its been a long road of years of trial and error (mostly error-lol) to finally feel like I put it all together enough to come up with a system that I feel can beat the market pretty consistently, which is what has happened for the past 14 months.

Speaking of that...today is the 1st of March...so I usually do a "monthly update" seeing where I went right and where I went wrong.

February Monthly Wrap Up
​

Overall for February, my account finished up at +2.36%

The other funds for June: C fund +0.12%.....S fund -0.50%.....I fund -2.82%.....F fund +0.68%

So I finally beat ALL of the funds for the month...including the G fund...while also finishing positive in a month when most of the other funds were even to some slight losses.

On the Monthly tracker I finished #35 (out of 1627) for February...about the top 2% across the entire Tracker

The more important score...for the year...I was down -2.18%. That was #368 on the Tracker (out of 1144 non-premium folks that I can "see"). That's in at about the top 32% of the Tracker.

The other funds for the year: C fund-5.07%.....S fund -8.26%.....I fund -8.28%.....F fund +2.18%

So I am now FINALLY where I want to be (except for being positive, which might change by COB today). Ahead of ALL the stock funds year (except the F and G of course).
The trick is to keep that lead...and stay mostly with (in) the markets, and try to build on that 3-6% lead on the C-S-I...but also aim for the F and G if charts indicate a pattern similar to the past 7 months.
This all involves briefly exiting stocks ONLY at clear overbought opportunities every month or two, and USUALLY just for 1-3 days before getting back in (so you don't get whipsawed).
That's taken a strong stomach the past few months.:sick:

Good luck to all. :smile:
 
Well, got out a week ago at what WAS a new high...but has since been eclipsed past 2 trading days.

Still not too bad though...am up +4.81% for the month...while C-Fund is +6.21% and S-Fund is +6.88%

This is when I'm most nervous...being out of the market while it drifts off higher without me.
But what makes me feel semi-good right now is the bullish sentiment we have (see it on our survey Monday),as well as the VIX...now at a 7-month low (below).

vix.jpg

While weirder things have happened, with where sentiment and the VIX are right now, I think we're due for at least a 2-3% pullback next week, before going back up to higher highs.
I am about 1.4% below the C and near 2% below the S. Don't plan on being too greedy, but it would be nice to gain a little ground on both before the month is out.
We'll see.
 
March Monthly Wrap-Up​

It was the best of months...it was the worst of months.

Had my highest 1-month performance in over half a year but for the first time in several months, I under-performed the other indices quite significantly.

For March, I was up +4.87%. The other funds: C-Fund +6.79% : S-Fund +8.24%: I-Fund +6.59%.

After timing the bottom within one day and getting into the C-Fund at the mid 1800's, I exited the C fund when it hit 2022...so my system calls for me to wait till the S&P falls a bit below that level before buying in again.

Then again, just because my system calls for it, doesn't mean that it will happen anytime soon, and the danger in my system is being out of the market more than 3-5 days per month. That's where I am now...being out for over 2 weeks, but I'm trying to exercise patience with the possibility of a minor 3% correction putting me back into a buy.

SP.jpg

More importantly, in the long term, I continue to hold a lead on the major indices but much of that lead has narrowed this past month. I am positive this year at +2.58%

The other funds: C-Fund +1.37% : S-Fund -0.70%: I-Fund -2.24%. So I remain above them for the year to date, except the F Fund at +3.13%.

For the YTD I am still ranking 99 out of 1112...in the top 9% of the Tracker. My goal is to be in the top 50...or the top 5%...but my system is meant as a slow, conservative grind upwards, so hopefully patience will prevail and I can get a dip somewhere below 2022 on the S&P to buy back in.
If not then there is the threat of a poor year, where the stock train pulls away without you. We'll see. Good luck to all this month.
 
Re calibrating for June. Went in 100% S...COB today.

Have been out of stocks for nearly 2 months, and with inverse head and shoulders (see Tom's latest discussion) there is a decent chance of a breakout...or a brief downward retest of recent lows followed by upside.
Since my system is based on staying in stocks unless there is a clear topping pattern, I will shift in, and chose S because if we're breaking out, it might have more upside potential than the C.
If we just have a few days run-up while climbing the "wall of worry" leading to June Fed Rate Hike possibility, then being invested going into June allows the luxury of getting out of stocks briefly, then re-entering at lower price. That was actually the deciding factor behind todays IFT.
We'll see how it plays out.
 
Am very happy with decision to go into the S Fund on the last day of May. Up 2% MTD plus whatever today brings (or not).

Being invested gives the luxury of stepping aside briefly and still getting in. With us being new all time highs and up 7 of 8 days on the S-fund...I think this is a good opportunity to gain a bit of ground on the funds by stepping out and quickly buying back at a lower price.

So I'm out...100% G COB today.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Am very happy with decision to go into the S Fund on the last day of May. Up 2% MTD plus whatever today brings (or not).

Being invested gives the luxury of stepping aside briefly and still getting in. With us being new all time highs and up 7 of 8 days on the S-fund...I think this is a good opportunity to gain a bit of ground on the funds by stepping out and quickly buying back at a lower price.

So I'm out...100% G COB today.
Click to expand...


Nice play FWM!
 
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