FireWeatherMet Account Talk

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2015 Annual Wrap Up​

A year ago...I went with a new trading system.
Instead of trying to make money, a certain %, my goal was targeting the market itself...to target and beat all the funds, and letting the $$ or percent gain take care of itself.
90% of Wall St fund managers cannot do this.

Well, here is the year-end analysis of my new trading system.

My final annual tally: +5.31%

G Fund: +2.05%
C Fund: +1.46%
F Fund: +0.91%
I Fund: -0.51%
S Fund: -2.92%

So I succeeded in beating all the funds significantly...by over 3% higher than the best fund (C) and over 8% higher than the S-fund.
In past years...finishing 3% above the best performing fund would have put me in:

2014: 24th place (of 1542). Top 1.5% of total tracker.
2013: 1st place (of 1308). Winner of total tracker.
2012: 19th place (of 1317). Top 1.4% of total tracker.
2011: 66th place (of 1035). Top 6.4% of total tracker.
2010: 4th place (of 607). Top 0.7% of total tracker.
2009: 5th place (of 288). Top 1.7% of total tracker.
2008: 4th place (of 51). Top 7.8% of total tracker.

2015 had me finishing in 208th place (of 1809). Top 11.5% of total tracker.

Maybe that's a testament of how much better our group has become over the years.
Maybe also the added Premium Services...esp Intrepid who led his flock very well past few years.

I deviated from my system in October, and after losing big early in the month, stayed tucked away in the G instead of staying invested and locked in a negative month. That cost me nearly 9% from the average of the 3 funds. Had I stayed with my system, I would be up over 14% for this year...and in the top 20 in this years tracker and near top 1% of total tracker.
But you live and learn.

Seems my system works best in bull years, and would be weakest (but still effective) in bear years (2015, 2011, 2008).
So despite today's sell-off, I will try to stay within my system as much as I can avoid temptation.
If 2016 is a positive year, history says my system should finish near the top 1%, and even have a 1 in 5 chance of winning the total tracker (lol- but I am confident I'll muck that up).

Good luck to all of you in 2016!:banana::arms::AR15firing:
FWM
 
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Congratulations, FWM!!! :banana: That's quite an accomplishment -- especially in a year when half the AT was underwater. :(

Now might be a good time to remind us how your system works. I seem to remember something about being in the market most of the time but stepping out after recent run-ups and buying back in again after the price drops 2% below your exit price. That way whether the fund is up or down you are always above it or something like that.
 
Cactus said:
Congratulations, FWM!!! :banana: That's quite an accomplishment -- especially in a year when half the AT was underwater. :(

Now might be a good time to remind us how your system works. I seem to remember something about being in the market most of the time but stepping out after recent run-ups and buying back in again after the price drops 2% below your exit price. That way whether the fund is up or down you are always above it or something like that.
Click to expand...

Yup, that's basically it...except normally its not even 2%. It depends a bit on the chart pattern, but even an 0.5% gain is worth locking in, if you can do it every other month. That by itself would put you 3% above the stock funds by the end of the year, and if Fidelity Magellan saw you doing that for a few years in a row, they pay you a few million/yr to run their fund (lol).

If we're not only at a new high but in a classic topping pattern, then I might remain on the sidelines a little longer than just 1-4 days...but that killed me in October, I got too cautious. That's when I get the most nervous in this system...when I'm OUT of the market. lol.

But given your 2015 run...you should be telling us about YOUR system! I'm curious.
 
Yeah, I really lucked out this year because I made my money early in the year and bailed to safety because of family medical issues right before a market drop. That set me me up pretty for the rest of the year even though that came and went.

I'm afraid that my trading in 2015 was driven primarily by my losing -7.39% in 2014. :frown: I performed poorly in 2014 because of poor timing and refusing to chase the market. I resolved not to let that happen again. Seeing your system I also decided to spend more time in the market. My problem has been getting out too soon. I could make more staying in longer but then when do I get out. I don't time that well.

What helped me this year is buying fear near market bottoms. I would track the Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators for our Funds as well as the comments on this forum. If the indicators pointed to being near a low and the comments on here were largely Doom & Gloom I would buy in. That's what's keeping me in now. :D

I don't think that is going to work too well if we really tank this year. I'm still looking around for something different but haven't found it yet. I haven't been impressed with the LMBF methods I've been analyzing for the last two years, though, something more mechanical like that suits me better.

Then again all my experience in recent years has been in bull markets. I don't have any experience in a bear market since 2008 so this could be quite different going forward. That could cause me to hunker down in the G or F Fund and only step in occasionally at extremely oversold times.
 
Well, might be breaking with system already (see I knew I would muck it up).

Think with China circuit breaker issues plus other macro's , the charts show we should at least go past the late summer lows of last years before possibly snapping back.
That could be in 2 days or 2 weeks but its a few percent. Will briefly shift to -G- with first IFT. My luck, deadcat bounce begins tomorrow - lol. Thought about waiting, but sometimes you wait for something that doesn't happen (last August we did not get one). Got 3 min to log into tsp gov site and make move.
 
Got it done in less than a minute (lol)

1st IFT into 100% -G- COB today. Not panic trade...likely to jump back in a few days. I just don't see the turnaround by tomorrow.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Well, might be breaking with system already (see I knew I would muck it up).

Think with China circuit breaker issues plus other macro's , the charts show we should at least go past the late summer lows of last years before possibly snapping back.
That could be in 2 days or 2 weeks but its a few percent. Will briefly shift to -G- with first IFT. My luck, deadcat bounce begins tomorrow - lol. Thought about waiting, but sometimes you wait for something that doesn't happen (last August we did not get one). Got 3 min to log into tsp gov site and make move.
Click to expand...

It's a tough call to make FWM, but preserving what you have is just as good as making a gain. I made the same decision on 4 Jan and have been sleeping a lot better since I did. :smile:
 
lol,

Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

"Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points"

Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.:rolleyes:

It would be nice if market news talking heads weren't so beholden to their advertisers (Fidelity, Ameritrade etc...). You can get the truth from them only if you can read between the lines.:rolleyes:

That's why I like watching Cramer. When he thinks the market sucks..he'll say basically that.
He does flip flop a lot from day to day though, and with only 2 monthly IFT's its hard to always use him a s a consistent tool.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
lol,

Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

"Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points"

Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.:rolleyes:

It would be nice if market news talking heads weren't so beholden to their advertisers (Fidelity, Ameritrade etc...). You can get the truth from them only if you can read between the lines.:rolleyes:

That's why I like watching Cramer. When he thinks the market sucks..he'll say basically that.
He does flip flop a lot from day to day though, and with only 2 monthly IFT's its hard to always use him a s a consistent tool.
Click to expand...

Oh, I dunno, I've always thought he was a consistent tool.:rolleyes: (Thanks for the hanging curve ball. I had to swing at it....)
 
LOL! So true. There are a few bright ones on CNBC who have some knowledge, but many are cheerleaders who know very little. I guess when you have to fill a whole day you run out of intelligent things to say.

OK, I'm out of intelligent things to say. :)

FireWeatherMet said:
lol,

Watching CNBC analysts desperately trying to paint a shinier picture with smiley faces and bull$$H!t quotes like:

"Well the markets are well off their lows!! Dow was down over 300 points but now its up significantly...down only 230 points"

Are you kidding? And then a few minutes later Dow is back down over 300 points again.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
 
ravensfan said:
It's a tough call to make FWM, but preserving what you have is just as good as making a gain. I made the same decision on 4 Jan and have been sleeping a lot better since I did. :smile:
Click to expand...

Good move. The past few days confirm you're a genius.:smile:

One thing though...you might not want to hunker down too long.
Last summers selloff was a V and then quickly back up almost as much.
 
Going back in...as that's what my system calls for.

Gained 1 to 1.5% on the markets Friday and don't want to squander that,
Sure we could go lower, some of the charts even suggest that.
On the other hand...it could be that Thursday was our true "panic-capitulation day" followed by a slightly less heavy selloff Friday and near even or slightly up today.

Will do something I haven't done in awhile...go 100% C as its been the best performer recently.
 
We've been on a decent run-up from the most recent low in January, but the charts are not looking bullish right now, and Feb to early March have produced some of our worst market lows in recent memory (March 2009 and March 2003).
Cramer's "Off the Charts" had the Fibonacci Queen saying that any rally from the recent lows would have a tough time getting past the mid 1900's and time-wise should not last beyond this week. Worth a peek...good chart work (below)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/cramer-charts-predict-sp-bounce-will-end-soon.html

Will get out while the going is good. Well actually given some of the losses I've absorbed maybe should re-phrase "while the going is only bad, but not yet catastrophic."
 
Well, I thought I would be locking in a loss today, certainly did not expect a "Whipsaw" at the end that lets me exit on a much preferred up day.:smile:

SP.jpg

That kind of volatility makes me feel better about getting out of this environment.:sick:
Will look at a better buy in towards end of month (maybe).
 
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