FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[WorkFE]

Makes sense and since I'm all in good luck. :laugh:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

My system is screaming at me to go back in equities right now.

Don't like the geopolitical fog right now though...thinking of waiting till this weekend Greece Save or GREXIT before going in.
F fund has been very good to me, and charts show it still has plenty of room to move upward.

Other choise would be to go 50% in (S) today and save the other 50% for when we actually do put in a clear bottom (that big 2% rise day in all markets).

We'll see, got 2 min to decide.

If I had listened to "myself" 2 days ago...would have been in the top 10 right now...instead of #92 on the tracker.
At least I'm back in equities...and the most oversold one at that...so we'll see how the rest of the month plays out..

Hope Germany doesn't "F---" things up this weekend.

 

[pmaloney]

I agree but things didn't look good yesterday and only looked risky today.

Don't forget the great lamb and wonderful wine pairing! :smile:

This will either go as low as October and rise or maybe go up a little more up and fail and then I would get out and see what happens.

Have a great weekend!

Good luck to us all Bank Walker!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Some questioned why I would go into equities COB Friday while there is still so much risk?

Well, I agree that there is risk, as the marathon talks in Brussels continue to go back and forth,
But as surging Asian shares currently show...the real risk is to stay out of the market any longer.

Reason is (below) I accomplished a significant gain on the general market in my last couplet of IFT's. Although not exact, have used S&P as barometer.
I locked in stock profits COB June 18th (red star) going -G- then -F-...and re-entered COB Friday (blue star). That's a 2.5% gain on the markets (them going down while I stay level).

And that's all my system is based on...stay in equities 80-90% of the time and just exit briefly at a higher price and re-enter at a lower price.
As long as you pick the right stock fund (big difference between C and I Fund YTD illustrate) by the end of the year, you should theoretically finish in the top 5% of the Tracker.

 

[Birchtree]

The time to get nervous is when nobody's nervous.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Stumbled into some old threads from our good old friend Show-Me.

He continues to live on...and something prompted me to reminisce a bit and look at some old threads of his very good, brave soul.

Anyway, one of Show's favorite things to talk about was "Oscar"...namely Oscar Carboni...who does a poor mans version of Mad Money every week or so.
His latest update was July 14th, with some buy and sell signals.
Worth keeping an eye on Oscar's updates....as well as peeking in on some of Show's last posts. A good way to pay tribute to someone is to occasionally look back and re-live some of those times.

So, courtesy of the spirit of Show-Me...here's Oscar's most recent "Short Term Trader" update.
Enjoy. :smile:

[video=youtube;3PFM0zI9-Ac]https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=108&v=3PFM0zI9-Ac[/video]

 

[nnuut]

I post Oscar's and others daily and weekly every morning in the Media section under Market Analysis.
Show-me was one of my all time favorites, Family man, GREAT Father, a carpenter, kept Bees. A smart fellow I miss him a bunch!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

FWM, it would be great to see higher highs soon; I'm just not seeing where they are coming from right now. BUT, I like your thinking and would be really happy if things play out that way.

FS

I am seriously thinking "BREAKOUT" from our tight 5-month trading range, between 2130-2040 as seen using S&P as barometer. I've heard some analysts say that's the tightest 5 month trading range over that period that they've seen in recent history. I'm too lazy right now to go back and verify that claim, so I'll just take their word for it.:smile:

We seem to have the perfect ingredients for a breakout rally; the disappearance of ongoing geopolitical/structural threats to the market...BUT...still enough worries in the background to keep people on the sidelines...until they start seeing the low volume gains...and one by one those last to the party start jumping in, sending the market higher.
The classic climb up the "Wall of Worry".

The improvements on the geopolitical/structural part....
- Greece bailout
- China Gov't pulling out all the stops to (successfully) reverse the crashing Shanghai Index.
- Iran Deal (believe it or not...but most analysts are positive about it from a global market perspective).

The worries....
- Future rate hike MAYBE September or more likely December....or maybe not till next year. Perfect for volatility spikes that can be profited on if timed right.

- Dow Transports and Oil going down, typically signs of economic slowdowns...but they've been doing that for awhile now, and even if they are the long term trend, they've dropped so far so fast (without really denting the market) that e brief reversal, like a prolonged dead cat bounce, is likely...which would really send stocks up in the short-medium term (several weeks).

Otherwise our economy is structurally sound and improving. Improving enough that the Fed is thinking about a rate hike to make sure it doesn't overheat and bring inflation.

Another encouraging sign, the S&P, after going on a tear the past 5-7 days, only had a slight negative pause today, not a frenzied sell-off to lock in profits of worried investors. That's a strong sign, given that the S&P is less than 1% from its all-time high.

Look for a breakout to AND PAST new highs next week. Any weakness should be bought...not sold. We just had our encounter with the 200 day EMA...a more serious drop should be many weeks away. Don't worry about the 1-2% down weeks that get mixed in, they are made up for by 2-3% up weeks.

However, geopolitical surprises can and do happen, so always gotta keep an eye on that, but if one lets THAT keep them out of the market, then they should NEVER go into the market ever, and should just live in the G fund.

When your gut tells you that all the threats are over and its safe to jump in...that's exactly when the brief profit-taking exit door hits you in the a$$.
Its hit me in my a$$ets many times over the years....but I'm finally starting to figure this $h!t out. :ban:

 

[nasa1974]

Still 100% "S". Hope your right, would be nice to see double digit profits.

 

[userque]

My new system agrees that we go up from here for at least a month. Missed getting out of F fund today.

 

[FogSailing]

Appreciate your insights FWM. My biggest concern continues to be Kramer's recent warning (a month ago) about a downward turn in the markets based on Fib retracement. However, the "when" of that happening is unknown. I agree with you that a breakout is likely and given the news, probably to the positive side. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

FS

 

[Cactus]

Still 100% "S". Hope your right, would be nice to see double digit profits.

Yeah, S Fund has been under-performing again. I'm glad I spread my entry out among C, S, & I this time. Still, I have a larger portion, 40%, in S so I'm hoping to see it catch up.

 

[Maricar19]

Appreciate your insights FWM. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

FS

80% on G. Can't wait for fresh IFTs in August. Hopefully, FIRE is correct! Last year, August was kind to me.

 

[pmaloney]

Even though we didn't hold the line at 2067 and went to 2048 July 8th I think we have made the bounce up in ten days and can breathe a sigh of relief. :smile:

Carolyn Boroden Featured on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money - June 11, 2015

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Appreciate your insights FWM. My biggest concern continues to be Kramer's recent warning (a month ago) about a downward turn in the markets based on Fib retracement. However, the "when" of that happening is unknown. I agree with you that a breakout is likely and given the news, probably to the positive side. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

FS

Just FYI, that Fib pattern has already finished.
Cramer had an update a few weeks after the initial Fib analysis, confirming it as 2067 was breached BUT giving 2 other levels of support. in the 2040's and 2020's.
Obviously, the 1st support level held and we've retraced well past 50% (more like 90%), so seriously, forget about that previous Fib. worry about the next one.:smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Darn, Guess I misplaced my Fib Detector. I'll have to buy a new one..

BTW... Thanks..

FS

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Catching a nice tailwind on the -I- Fund...since my move from -F- to -I- COB July 10th, the -I- has closed positive 6 of 7 days...with a 7 day rise of about +2.45%.
Quite a concern looking at the top 20. 17 of 20 are in G/F. Smart money fearing something???

Not sure, but I think that the top took some off the table after sticking out good run up after GREXIT stress...and briefly getting out due to parabolic slope of rise and possible bad news this week with earnings. That's why I chose the -I-. Hopefully it won't mean - I- n the a$$ets.

Staying the course. I want to stay invested in equities going into early August. Maybe do a short swap with the S fund with last IFT if the Euro shoots to high in next few days. S seems to have oversold and might be a better 1 week play the last week of July.

Will chew on that one for a bit...:notrust:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Thinking of switching from I Fund to S Fund with my 2nd IFT.
While I is still my long term play, the S or C might be a better short term play with only 5 trading days left in July.
Have 18 minutes to decide...will do some quick analysis and reading.

 

[pmaloney]

Good luck. I went in 70% C 30% I yesterday which hasn't worked too well yet.
Hopefully a wall of worry that will go up next week. :worried:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Good luck. I went in 70% C 30% I yesterday which hasn't worked too well yet.
Hopefully a wall of worry that will go up next week. :worried:

It doesn't have to work the 1st day, or even the 2nd or 3rd. It is the 5th, 7th, 9th day that you look back on that short term trade and say "yeah, did the right thing".:smile:
Or on occasion..."Crap!!"

IFT into 100% S COB Today.