FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FogSailing]

That sounds like a great contrarian system...but I think I'll stick to a more "situational" approach to trading..:laugh:

FS

 

[FireWeatherMet]

He probably doesn't want the competition buying on the cheap.

WxW
Thought you were in the F fund, but your daily return hints "G".
You must be on "Premium" list where they don't show recent IFT's.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This chart analysis on Mad Money from 3 weeks ago, from the Fibonacci Queen seems to have nailed it so far...worth seeing and heeding what her charts say in the end.

One thing the video showed was that if we can't hold at 2067 on the S&P...then look out below!
Its holding barely, for now...but...

View attachment 34273

Good one..

While I agree with many of his points he laid out, it's still hard for me to take Jim seriously after the firm he said was fine went belly up within a couple days of that pronouncement.

You know we have DOOM and CRAP on our boards. Wonder what DOOJ (Do the opposite of Jim) returns would look like?

Jimbo says sell, DOOJ signal - buy-buy-b-b-b-buy!!!

Well, everyone has misses in this business. Vast majority of traders had Bear Stearns and Lehman as "buys" just a few weeks before they went belly up.
But its his guests, namely the chart pro's who I pay attention to a lot, and I think he is expanding on their work, plus adding his know how of how this geopolitical stuff plays out...its never just a i day drop and back to the races, it would be very naive for anyone to think that, IMHO.

Looking at indices falling off right now proves the point. After Greece officially misses payment today, watch out below with tomorrow market, unless something unforeseen happens.

 

[weatherweenie]

WxW
Thought you were in the F fund, but your daily return hints "G".
You must be on "Premium" list where they don't show recent IFT's.

I am 100% in the G fund.

 

[WorkFE]

After Greece officially misses payment today, watch out below with tomorrow market, unless something unforeseen happens.

For your F fund move I'm assuming that was your play. Good Luck.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

June Monthly Wrap Up
​

Overall for June, my account finished up at +0.72%

The other funds for June: C fund -1.93%.....S fund -0.71%.....I fund -2.80%.....F fund -1.07%

So I finally beat ALL of the funds for the month...including the G fund...while also finishing positive in a month when the other funds (even the F) had significant losses.

On the Monthly tracker I finished #227 (out of 1437) for June...about the top 15% across the entire Tracker

The more important score...for the year...I was up +6.98%. That was #62 on the Tracker (out of 1072 non-premium folks that I can "see"). That's in at about the top 6% of the Tracker.
Was #102 for the YTD last month so I'm still "movin on up".
The other funds for the year: C fund +1.26%.....S fund +4.96%.....I fund +6.52%.....F fund +0.05%

So I am now FINALLY where I want to be. Ahead of ALL the funds for the year.
However, that was temporary, as a down day in the F and up day in the -I- for July 1st set me back a bit behind the I Fund once again.

So my system works...but I am currently out of sync with it (being out of stocks while they are starting to rise back).
My system actually calls for me to jump back into stocks ASAP to preserve lead on them.
However, I will wait a bit till after the weekend, as I saw a poll that had the Greek "No to Austerity" vote slightly ahead of "Yes accept Euro deal".
Volatility is still high and volatility means things can snap back the other way in a hurry.:notrust:

Good luck to all. :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, so much for Greece's "Plan B" :worried:

We can't print drachmas, says Greece's finance minister

Athens (AFP) - With speculation swirling that Greece might be forced out of the euro and have to print its own money after a weekend referendum, its finance minister on Thursday said the country no longer had the presses to make drachmas.

More here:
We can't print drachmas, says Greece's finance minister - Yahoo News

 

[nnuut]

Looks as if you have it all figured out SLICK. Where should we put our money now, he who knows all?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This chart analysis on Mad Money from 3 weeks ago, from the Fibonacci Queen seems to have nailed it so far...worth seeing and heeding what her charts say in the end.

One thing the video showed was that we needed to break to upside of 2137 for rally to continue...BUT...if we can't hold at 2067 on the S&P...then look out below!
Its holding barely, for now...but...

Thinking of buying today on any positive action?
Cramer says don't be the "dumb money".:notrust:

Cramer: Danger alert-don't buy on the market dip - Yahoo Finance​

Just purely prophetic from a few weeks ago. Now we're teetering on the edge with the following plague of locusts (below)

- Uncharted possibility of GREXIT and unknown issues of how it would affect other Euro members

- Shanghai Stocks in Bear Market Super Correction underway

- Hong Kong and European stocks in freefall

- Dow Transports (leading indicator) in correction territory for months.

How long, in this interconnected global economy, did anybody here think US stocks would remain insulated?

Did anyone here doubt Cramer's analysis a few weeks ago??

 

[Whipsaw]

Just purely prophetic from a few weeks ago. Now we're teetering on the edge with the following plague of locusts (below)

- Uncharted possibility of GREXIT and unknown issues of how it would affect other Euro members

- Shanghai Stocks in Bear Market Super Correction underway

- Hong Kong and European stocks in freefall

- Dow Transports (leading indicator) in correction territory for months.

How long, in this interconnected global economy, did anybody here think US stocks would remain insulated?

Did anyone here doubt Cramer's analysis a few weeks ago??

FWM, I've been on the same page for a few weeks and have comments similar to yours yet to post. At this point, its difficult to say when the smoke will clear. It would be quite the accomplishment to pick a bottom though. I missed out on big gains after the housing bubble not recognizing the bottom being in. We closed above 2067 yesterday, I suspect we'll be well below that today...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

My system is screaming at me to go back in equities right now.

Don't like the geopolitical fog right now though...thinking of waiting till this weekend Greece Save or GREXIT before going in.
F fund has been very good to me, and charts show it still has plenty of room to move upward.

Other choise would be to go 50% in (S) today and save the other 50% for when we actually do put in a clear bottom (that big 2% rise day in all markets).

We'll see, got 2 min to decide.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

FWM, I've been on the same page for a few weeks and have comments similar to yours yet to post. At this point, its difficult to say when the smoke will clear. It would be quite the accomplishment to pick a bottom though. I missed out on big gains after the housing bubble not recognizing the bottom being in. We closed above 2067 yesterday, I suspect we'll be well below that today...

WPS,
Yes timing the bottom is always tricky. Timing tops is a little easier, and I was fortunate enough to get out near our recent high late last month so I really don't have to time the bottom...jumping in as soon as a bottom is confirmed is OK, that keeps me a few % above the rest of our funds.

But just simple "old school" charting of taking the 1st dip and applying that to the top of the dead cat bounce shows a target price of 2015. (below).



That price might sound crazy low to some, but as markets currently dropping we're only about 1.5% to 1.8% away from that.:worried:

 

[FogSailing]

Old School Rocks!!

View attachment 34414

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

FWM, thanks, that's great for targeting the bottom (will add that to my notebook). We are now well below S&P 2067, that 2015 target may be conservative. :blink: . I need that shirt, too!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

FWM, thanks, that's great for targeting the bottom (will add that to my notebook). We are now well below S&P 2067, that 2015 target may be conservative. :blink: . I need that shirt, too!

I think you're headed for a mug of some sort. You should jump up to near the top of the Tracker COB today!! (still waiting for final numbers)

 

[Mcqlives]

Old School Rocks!!

View attachment 34414

FS

I have GOT to get one of those!!!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Interesting take on Greece/Eurozone situation from USA Today that is quite different from what most likely feel here:

Europe must back away from Greek austerity cliff:

Will financial leaders find the courage to admit they were wrong?

Europe must back away from Greek austerity cliff: Joseph Stiglitz

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I've been watching "Squawk Box Europe" most of the night, enjoying some rosemary infused lamb chops and a bottle of my favorite French wine, La Vielle Cure from Fronsac. Actually owned and operated by an American team that took over this old on one-time great, then poorly run winery, and now they produce some of the finest Bordeaux's around. Dollar for dollar, the best wine under $40 IMHO. But I digress...

Looks like Tsipras and Greece put together a proposal that has nearly all the austerity that he promised his people he would not go for. However, time is running out for his countries businesses, from restaurants to tourist locations who are hurting during the current money crunch during the busy summer period. So looks like he has to make some sort of deal. Or more to the point, Euro finance ministers are under much more pressure to accept his deal, or at least counter with only minor changes.

So knowing that with a good bottle of wine and a day off, I might be oversleeping the 9am PDT IFT cutoff, I went ahead and made the move tonight...going what I have been preaching for months but not brave enough to do until now...100% -I- COB Today. Think that a big up day today will lead to a bigger up-day Monday with a bit of follow thru if deal is reached. After that...a question...will depend on China and US news...will be ready to use 2nd IFT into part F if that happens.

Otherwise, I'm going in today. I Fund. Good luck to anyone following me. This move may not be for the faint of heart:worried:.

 

[Boghie]

Uh,

Not a time to be fully invested, bro... Not the time...
Way too variant. There is no momentum and folks are gambling on news that they get far later than da'Boyz...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Uh,

Not a time to be fully invested, bro... Not the time...
Way too variant. There is no momentum and folks are gambling on news that they get far later than da'Boyz...

Agree to a point...but that's not the plan.

First off "Da Boys" (regarding Wall St big fund makers and shakers) have no control in this scenario. Its not an "inside information" kind of scenario, unless you plant bugs in the ECB and IMF conference rooms. (lol)

If this Greek deal goes thru over the weekend (more and more pressure is on Euro Creditors to accept it now that major concessions have been offered) then its time to be full invested for the next 2-4 trading days. If I make a quick 1-2%...I might start shaving out of stocks again...using another IFT to go 50 -I- and 50 -F- as a counter weight...and see what happens from there since there are unlimited IFT's to shave stock holdings downwards

After that, there are still a few "Booghie-Men" out there (pardon the pun) like China/Asia uncertainties and Dow Transport decline. Plus my previous charting suggested a low closer to 2015 (although geopolitical news can alter price targets).

BUT...our biggest upswings come when a huge piece of positive news comes, while there are still worries out there. Its that "wall of worries" that give us our best, longest rallies.

Plus...my system calls for me to be mostly IN the market...sidestepping briefly for 1-3 days at new highs just to make a quick 0.10% to 0.50% gain (sometimes more) on the major indices every month...or every other month, with the cumulative goal of finishing the year ahead of the best fund by at least 1%. Historically that puts you in the top 50 of the tracker every year, my research showed. I made it to # 29 2 days ago, when I posted that my system was "screaming for me to get back into the market". If I had listened to it back then, I would be in the top 5 or 10 right now...closing in on #1. So I stayed out of my system for a bit too long...not going to continue making that mistake any further.

With all due respect, I'd be more worried doing what you're doing...just sitting there at 50% invested. If you think there is more room to fall, then all you're doing is guaranteeing yourself 50% of that fall. I've already dodged ALL of the fall so far the past 2 weeks. My hedge is that the next big short term move is UP.

Then again, no plan is perfect, and I'm prepared to use my 2nd IFT to get out of markets Monday if all this falls apart.:smile: