FireWeatherMet Account Talk

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Still feeling good about my latest move (from stocks into the -G-).
Caught up a small bit on the indices Friday as the S and C dipped a little. I fund went up a fraction.

This move partially fulfilled my system by exiting COB Thursday (June 18th) at or near new highs.
The Nasdaq and Small Caps (below) were at new highs.
S&P was about a half percent below its all-time high.

Nasdaq.png

S Fund.png

For Greece situation, current futures are up, as are Asian stocks, due to Greece making "an offer" to Euro creditors.

Asia cheers Greece's 11th-hour proposals to avert default
Asia cheers Greece's 11th-hour proposals to avert default - Yahoo Finance

Reading the article (above) the response was very similar to what US congressionals said about each others offers during the Gov't Shutdown a few years ago.
According to a European official , he said the Greek proposal was "a good basis for progress".

For anyone remembering the US Gov't shutdown talks, whenever you heard those words, it meant "We'll appear gracious to the offer but we're not going to accept it"

Will see what the day brings. If Greece offer is accepted (would surprise me, but weirder things have happened) then I'll likely use my 2nd IFT to jump back in, mostly into I fund.

Otherwise, will wait till later in the week for a better price to buy back in.
Don't feel that default is likely at this juncture, but usually these things tend to go down to the wire, and its not until there is at least 1 day of blood-bath selling that people on both sides become more willing to compromise.

Good luck to everyone. :)
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Still feeling good about my latest move from stocks into the -G-.

Asia cheers Greece's 11th-hour proposals to avert default
Asia cheers Greece's 11th-hour proposals to avert default - Yahoo Finance

Reading the article (above) the response was very similar to what US congressionals said about each others offers during the Gov't Shutdown a few years ago.
According to a European official , he said the Greek proposal was "a good basis for progress".

For anyone remembering the US Gov't shutdown talks, whenever you heard those words, it meant "We'll appear gracious to the offer but we're not going to accept it"
Click to expand...

Human nature is a funny thing. Its basically the same whether its America...Asia...Russia...or in this case, the Europeans & Greeks.
Game of chicken...or GREXIT endgame???

Greek debt talks stumble before EU leaders gather

Ministers voiced exasperation at being summoned to Brussels again only to be kept waiting while Athens, the weakest link in the 19-nation currency area, resisted measures regarded by its lenders as essential to balance its public finances.

"The Greek government remains firm on its positions," an official in Tsipras's administration said

"We are prepared to work all night, but we had nothing real to work with," another euro zone official said. "The loss of trust is becoming extreme. It is hard to see how we can go on."

Greek debt talks stumble before EU leaders gather - Yahoo Finance
 
Sitting on the -G- Lilly pad right now, with a 2nd IFT in hand for next 2 days.

Plan on waiting to see how F fund reacts...and if tis up, might go F and carry that into early July.

If F find is tanking also, then most likely will remain in G, al least till Greek referendum vote.

But, a 3rd strategy, requires a little balls, is if we have a Mon and Tue selloff, buy in Tue to take in effect COB. Reason is polls show Greeks might vote for austerity.
And this poll was just before Greek banks closed.


Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders

Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders | Reuters
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Sitting on the -G- Lilly pad right now, with a 2nd IFT in hand for next 2 days.

Plan on waiting to see how F fund reacts...and if tis up, might go F and carry that into early July.

If F find is tanking also, then most likely will remain in G, al least till Greek referendum vote.

But, a 3rd strategy, requires a little balls, is if we have a Mon and Tue selloff, buy in Tue to take in effect COB. Reason is polls show Greeks might vote for austerity.
And this poll was just before Greek banks closed.


Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders

Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders | Reuters
Click to expand...

That 3rd strategy is ballsy to say the least. I find myself in a similar situation 80% G, 20% S, with one IFT remaining for June. What to do, what to do? Run to G, watch how F Fund reacts, or buy the dip? And if I buy the dip, how much, 40, 50, 75 or all in. I guess the good thing is we have 2 days to decide...:nuts:
 
I'm smelling something...I hope it's opportunity: what else could it be? :D:D:D

But to be frank, I'd be totally PO'd right now if I were a Greek citizen and a lack of action by leadership ran me into financial ruin. Leaders are expected to do the right thing but all I've seen is politically motivated behavior and not a concern for the Greek citizen. The ruble is the new drachma. Next thing will be Russian bases in Athens.

FS
 
FireWeatherMet said:
But, a 3rd strategy, requires a little balls, is if we have a Mon and Tue selloff, buy in Tue to take in effect COB.
Click to expand...

That's putting it mildly considering the referendum vote, I believe, is on the 5th. Holiday weekend for us. I will however be keeping my eye on your move since we're both on the pad.
 
FogSailing said:
I'm smelling something...I hope it's opportunity: what else could it be? :D:D:D

But to be frank, I'd be totally PO'd right now if I were a Greek citizen and a lack of action by leadership ran me into financial ruin. Leaders are expected to do the right thing but all I've seen is politically motivated behavior and not a concern for the Greek citizen. The ruble is the new drachma. Next thing will be Russian bases in Athens.

FS
Click to expand...

FS, replace "Greek" with "American," and you got me!
 
ravensfan said:
That 3rd strategy is ballsy to say the least. I find myself in a similar situation 80% G, 20% S, with one IFT remaining for June. What to do, what to do? Run to G, watch how F Fund reacts, or buy the dip? And if I buy the dip, how much, 40, 50, 75 or all in. I guess the good thing is we have 2 days to decide...:nuts:
Click to expand...
I am faced with the same dilemma. There will be a rebound, and we don't want to miss that.
What does the crystal ball say?
 
FogSailing said:
I'm smelling something...I hope it's opportunity: what else could it be? :D:D:D

But to be frank, I'd be totally PO'd right now if I were a Greek citizen and a lack of action by leadership ran me into financial ruin. Leaders are expected to do the right thing but all I've seen is politically motivated behavior and not a concern for the Greek citizen. The ruble is the new drachma. Next thing will be Russian bases in Athens.

FS
Click to expand...

Remember that the current Greek leadership is extreme left. Cramer thinks the big danger is for China to come in to fund Greece. A turn against Europe would not surprise. Would that not be a slap in the face for the West?
 
F Fund is surging upward today.

I think I found my option. :smile:

Unless something dramatic changes in the next hour, going in 100% F.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Is This the End? (of Bull Run)

Over the past few months the biggest threat to the Bull Market run since 2009 was thought to be the specter of the US Fed raising rates (a fraction) lol
Now 2 much bigger things ongoing:

1) Chinese stock index crashing 20% into correction territory.

2) GREXIT - and possible contagion thru Europe.

All I can say, is that if the Chinese stock market crash,...Greece/Euro exit threat with banks closed...and threat of Fed rate hikes...are not enough to end this bull run, then nothing will!
Click to expand...



FireWeatherMet said:
My favorite part of Mad Money is when Cramer brings in the Fibonacci Queen Carolyn Borodin to do an "Off the Charts" analysis.

This one should be of interest to everyone here.
It looks at the long term pattern of the S&P, and answers the question are we at a long term top and if so, what levels to watch out for. Click "play" on video.
S&P must not fail at 2137...or else...:sick:

Off the Charts: Key levels in S&P 500 & Dow Transports | Watch the video - Yahoo News
Click to expand...

This chart analysis on Mad Money from 3 weeks ago, from the Fibonacci Queen seems to have nailed it so far...worth seeing and heeding what her charts say in the end.

One thing the video showed was that if we can't hold at 2067 on the S&P...then look out below!
Its holding barely, for now...but...:sick:

Cramer Chart.jpg
 
weatherweenie said:
2063 now
Click to expand...
Skorcher said:
S&P closed at 2057. Must be a Fibonacci meltdown.
Click to expand...

Yup,

Means another leg down, according to the charts.

You did good today WxW...will be interesting to see what final pricing of F fund comes out to.
I'm a day late on it, but according to the charts (below) there is plenty of upside to the F right now.
Still well below its 200 day EMA....plenty of room to run (2-3%) if this is going to be a month long bear market for equities.

F-Fund.jpg
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Sitting on the -G- Lilly pad right now, with a 2nd IFT in hand for next 2 days.

Plan on waiting to see how F fund reacts...and if tis up, might go F and carry that into early July.

If F find is tanking also, then most likely will remain in G, al least till Greek referendum vote.

But, a 3rd strategy, requires a little balls, is if we have a Mon and Tue selloff, buy in Tue to take in effect COB. Reason is polls show Greeks might vote for austerity.
And this poll was just before Greek banks closed.


Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders

Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders | Reuters
Click to expand...

Like your thinking.
Right now it looks like Tue will be basically flat but if there's another big selloff I will probably jump back in.
Good Luck! :smile:
 
Thanks for posting the Kramer news article FWM. That puts real perspective on the global situation. Still holding on the Lily Pad.

FS
 
weatherweenie said:
He probably doesn't want the competition buying on the cheap.
Click to expand...
Good one..

While I agree with many of his points he laid out, it's still hard for me to take Jim seriously after the firm he said was fine went belly up within a couple days of that pronouncement. :D

You know we have DOOM and CRAP on our boards. Wonder what DOOJ (Do the opposite of Jim) returns would look like?

Jimbo says sell, DOOJ signal - buy-buy-b-b-b-buy!!!
 
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