FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Wake Up: There's a slow melt-up going on

There's a slow meltup going on

 

[wavecoder]

I still think this run has more room to go up before the next pullback, I got my horns on

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Liking the reverse action this morning...this market just does not want to stay down for too long. (below)



However, looking at the VIX...we have been in a very steady downward glide and are at 4-month lows. (below)
This is a concern...feel stocks can "melt up" a bit more from here, but probably won't see anymore "Big" up-days before we peak.



Also, our sentiment is starting to get quite bullish. All this is making me start paying attention and planning a possible sell soon.

 

[Birchtree]

VIX is going to10. I'm waiting on my margin to open again and shower me with new buying power. I'm buying all the way up.

 

[Cactus]

10? That would be a first. It hasn't managed to get much below 12 all year without jumping right back up.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

OK Mods/Tom, seriously?

Was there some security breach for posting the early "floating number" of the Sentiment Survey of this morning (lol).
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/15177-fireweathermet-account-talk.html#post496593

First off...its only in real time when one participates, so a few hours later it is nearly always different so a Thu morning poll number means nothing.

Secondly, its already available for all to see instantly when one votes or checks.

Thirdly...as long as no one posts what the true buy sell signals are, its just an image that we all see when we click and vote.
I believe that not posting the specific SS "buy-sell ratios" was the only request that was made by "management" and that was not violated.

I know that if the instantaneous SS poll results were hidden from us, then I (and likely many others) would never participate in it again.
And that would change the whole effectiveness of SS it if SS gets less voters.

So can we maybe reconsider if deleting my SS image (already a few hours old and no longer the same) was a little "draconian"?
I will go by whats decided, guess I'm just filing an informal "appeal".

Sincerely,
FWM

 

[Cactus]

Wow, FWM, did someone actually PM you a cease & desist notice or did they only take down your early SS image? I hope it was only concern for early results not matching final results that caused someone to take it down. Don't want anyone confused after all. If that's the case, though, wouldn't you want to leave a link to the final results. It's not available yet on this page TSP Talk - Sentiment Survey that is linked on the home page. Is there another link to the final results? You can get to them by revisiting the voting page but I don't dare post that link here in fear that it's not allowed. The intent may be that non-paying members only get the results a day/week later or so. I don't know.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Liking the reverse action this morning...this market just does not want to stay down for too long. (below)

View attachment 33355

However, looking at the VIX...we have been in a very steady downward glide and are at 4-month lows. (below)
This is a concern...feel stocks can "melt up" a bit more from here, but probably won't see anymore "Big" up-days before we peak.

View attachment 33356

Also, our sentiment is starting to get quite bullish. All this is making me start paying attention and planning a possible sell soon.

Memo to thy self. Act on your hunches instead of just writing about them.

Oh well, will ride this down and try to time the next short term top.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Making final decision in 10 minutes but leaning to using 1st IFT to lock in todays gains, being even with Fridays losses and step aside into 100% G.

Too much volatility...DOW down 200 pts previous trading day...up 200 pts tdy and we have some headwinds (Greek Issue etc).

Don't think Greece will exit but I think more volatility means a better (lower) buy back in price is coming soon.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I'm out. 100% G COB Today.

Not exactly following my system (exiting at new highs with low volatility) but no system is perfect and sometimes you have to use your gut (not emotion but in depth thought).
Was contemplating exiting briefly late last week, but chose not to and got hit hard the next day (Friday's big drop).
This equally big rise this morning on no major positive news other than China bank cut....gives us the high volatility we DON'T like near new highs.
VIX was near 4 month lows a few days ago. And our Sentiment is (without giving exact numbers) at its most bullish level in 8 weeks.

Oh, did I mention that we're only 9 days away from "Sell in May and Go Away". That's emotion but thought I would bring that in since many investors unfortunately subscribe to that policy.

Feel that Greece issue will be a major headwind. A last minute deal could be the next catalyst upward, but don't know if we'll be 2-4% lower on the markets before then.
So with another April IFT left..."will sell today...to live and buy another day".:smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Good Luck! Too bad we can't buy Greece and turn it into a vacation spot.

 

[WorkFE]

Good Luck! Too bad we can't buy Greece and turn it into a vacation spot.

Good fishing.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Another reason I locked in monthly/yearly profits 2 days ago.


​

 

[tsptalk]

This is the one that scares me...

The SPY looks more like a cup and handle than a rising wedge so I'm not as negative on it.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This is the one that scares me...

The SPY looks more like a cup and handle than a rising wedge so I'm not as negative on it.

Agree. DAX is even more extreme than that so was worried about a quick rapid downturn there.

Interesting on the S&P...yes it might look better as a cup and handle.

Other thing...also a bullish sign...might be an "Ascending Triangle"
Might have to use my 2nd IFT sooner rather than later if that's the case. Will have to mull over this one a little...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Not liking my 1st IFT. Broke my rules and now I'm paying (by losing ground on the market).
I misread the charts I believe, and we might be finally setting up for a breakthrough (per below).
Will evaluate Thursday morning, but I don't want to fall out of sync with stocks too much if we're not in a downtrend.

Considering buying back in Thursday morning....maybe all S fund or 50/50 C and S. We'll see in the morning.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Going back in...a 3rd in each of C...S...I.

Want to keep a toe in each. I Fund may be the most overbought at the moment so will lower exposure just a bit there. C might have the most upside and has been outperforming S as of late.

Looks like breakout has begun as charts (Ascending Triangle or Cup and Handle) predicted.

 

[pmaloney]

Good luck on what looks like a good move. :smile:

 

[weatherweenie]

I went with a C/S mix. That Greece crap is too uncertain for me.

Going back in...a 3rd in each of C...S...I.

Want to keep a toe in each. I Fund may be the most overbought at the moment so will lower exposure just a bit there. C might have the most upside and has been outperforming S as of late.

Looks like breakout has begun as charts (Ascending Triangle or Cup and Handle) predicted.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Going back in...a 3rd in each of C...S...I.

Want to keep a toe in each. I Fund may be the most overbought at the moment so will lower exposure just a bit there. C might have the most upside and has been outperforming S as of late.

Looks like breakout has begun as charts (Ascending Triangle or Cup and Handle) predicted.

For those foolish enough to be following my moves you might notice that even though I announced my move back into a 3rd of each fund (C, S, I) it is not showing up on the tracker this morning.
Might have had an explorer window freeze up yesterday morning when I tried sending my autotracker update yesterday. Am working to see if I can get it straightned out by COB today.
Otherwise for the record I did move into C, S, I yesterday (per signature below).
Got confirmation message from TSP.gov.