FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

This may hurt in the short term if Fed does what it is likely to do (hint that rates will be going up sooner rather than later), but decided to remain IN PLACE ( in mixed S, C, I).

One of the big reasons stocks are going up is that China's premier stated China will do whatever it needs to do (more stimulus, etc) to lead the worlds economy, sending Shanghai Index up over 2% today. I heard this on CNBC a few minutes before logging in to flee to the G fund.

So overall, there is not a clear sign to sell. Wish I had gotten up a little earlier today to grab some more analysis.
But my new system was to sell only at new, well established highs...so if the market corrects in the short term, then I guess I'll correct with it.
If we surge to new highs in the coming days, I'll make myself a promise to not get too greedy and be a little quicker with the trigger finger.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

This was Cramer's take this morning that sent me into a bearish tizzy.

[video]http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cramers-stop-trading-hanesbrands-harman-135200095.html[/video]

 

[Wiff007]

I decide to stay too. Like you I am worried about losing these gains. I lost twice this year, figure since we haven't had back to back green days hopefully were due.

Then if we get a bad day tomorrow maybe I might throw the dice and see what happens.

I just hope Wednesday the Feds don't scare us. I'm worried we might have good gains today and tomorrow but a pull back Wednesday.

 

[burrocrat]

I just hope Wednesday the Feds don't scare us. I'm worried we might have good gains today and tomorrow but a pull back Wednesday.

if that is the market diagnosis and depending on your confidence level in the signals that indicate that course to you, the strategery then would be to watch the market early tomorrow for a strong open confirmation then pull the ripcord and bail to g fund prior to 12 noon eastern time zone and lock in your gains.

 

[sniper]

This was Cramer's take this morning that sent me into a bearish tizzy.

[video]http://finance.yahoo.com/video/cramers-stop-trading-hanesbrands-harman-135200095.html[/video]

Don't get too bearish mon, the fun's just starting

 

[Wiff007]

Yea, that's what I probably will do. I think tomorrow will an important day.

 

[pmaloney]

Yup. Good observation. Hope we don't see it.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Approaching new highs in a very volatile environment. VIX is actually up about 3% while indices are rising.

Am about 50/50 on using 1st IFT of the month to briefly step aside.

There are some reasons not to, described in Tom's discussion (below) on new highs not looking like much of a barrier anymore on the charts, and I agree...but...got burned last time not stepping aside quick enough.

TSP Talk Market Commentary

Will chew on it some more the next 45 min. Often it seems the best moves I make are the ones I don't make. :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Some factors to NOT sell yet is the potential for us to follow a similar chart pattern thru much of November last year...a -V- shaped bottom followed by a sharp jagged rise to the previous high on the other side of the V, followed by a continued slower, gentler "melt-up" of another 2-3%. Since we are currently in a "risk-off" situation regarding Fed action on interest rates...this seems possible. But there are other reasons for possibly a quick 2 day downturn back to the 20 day EMA. Still thinking about it.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Going to exit COB Today to G.
Another Move Left to get back in this month.

Was on the fence, maybe leaning not to exit, but one of our best TSP'ers over the past 5 years just exited, and they are up over 8% this year, so they (again) seem to have the hot hand in this cycle.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Am likely to use 2nd IFT to jump back in this morning. Likely to be a mix of I and S (will ditch C which has been a laggard for me this year).

Again, my investment goal is to just compete against our funds...and after stepping out COB Monday I've gained on them (thru their losses). I am a little worried that there could be more downside, and I fund looks a little toppy but I'm just trying to stay ahead of the funds.

S fund is down to its 10 day EMA which is usually a good bottom for any short term profit-taking...IF that's the reason for the recent down-spell.

 

[JTH]

Am likely to use 2nd IFT to jump back in this morning. Likely to be a mix of I and S (will ditch C which has been a laggard for me this year).

Again, my investment goal is to just compete against our funds...and after stepping out COB Monday I've gained on them (thru their losses). I am a little worried that there could be more downside, and I fund looks a little toppy but I'm just trying to stay ahead of the funds.

S fund is down to its 10 day EMA which is usually a good bottom for any short term profit-taking...IF that's the reason for the recent down-spell.

View attachment 33084

Perhaps not a bad idea, gotta get your edge where you can get it...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Jumped in 50% S and 50% I COB today.

Might stay in thru April if this is a short downturn or exit quick if something more ominous looming, but leaning towards the former.

 

[Whipsaw]

Jumped in 50% S and 50% I COB today.

Might stay in thru April if this is a short downturn or exit quick if something more ominous looming, but leaning towards the former.

Check JTH's thread.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Check JTH's thread.

This one?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/6089-jths-account-talk.html#post494359

 

[FireWeatherMet]

 

[Cactus]

Well anyway, you done did. Let's hope it wasn't too early. :worried:

I think I'll wait and see what Friday brings. Tomorrow could be more of the same or just a DCB.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

March Monthly Wrap Up
​

Overall for March, my account finished up at +0.81%

The other funds for March: C fund -1.57%.....S fund +1.24%.....I fund -1.43%.....F fund +0.47%

So I beat 3 of 4 funds for the month.
Was actually ahead of all the funds until the last day of the month when the I-fund put in a huge losing day ( -1.09%) while the S only lost -0.40%

But on the Monthly tracker I finished only # 491 (out of 1400) for March.
If the -S- and -I- would have been even on the last day, I would have finished somewhere in the top 200...but those are the breaks. :notrust:

Seems my difficulty is picking the right funds...from having half in the laggard C for the first 2 months and taking a hit with the I fund late this past month.
There is something to be said about staying fully in the S when in a bull market, and the S-herd that stampeded past me on the final day of March proved that adage true.

For the year...I am up +4.81%. That is # 221 on the tracker, but was in top 100 until the I fund collapse the last day of the month.
Was near 500 for the year last month so am slowly "moving on up"...

The other funds for the year:C fund +0.97%.....S fund +5.39%.....I fund +5.70%.....F fund +1.68%

So the only stock fund that I'm beating (quite handily) is the C fund. Still just below the S fund as well as the I but both are now within close striking range.

My plan going into April is similar, except a slightly less I fund influence...going in 50% I (instead of 60%). S fund also 50%.
Will bide my time fully invested and wait for a really good run-up...something like being up 5 out of 6 days...and if or when that coincides with a new high I will look to BRIEFLY step aside for 1-3 days (unless the world is coming to an end), then quickly buy back in at a lower price and then just simply stay on par with the stock funds and hopefully finish ahead of all the funds for the month this time.

The key it seems...is to be patient and wait for the right moment and to NOT get too greedy.
We'll see how it all plays out this month.
Good luck to all of you. :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A pretty comprehensive 3-4 min video news clip covering what last weeks jobs report really means...what the FED is most likely to do, and whether a Fed hike would really hurt anything in the long run... but also questioning whether after 6 years is this bull market getting towards the end of its cycle or are we still a few years away?

[video]http://finance.yahoo.com/video/economy-tolerate-fed-rate-hike-140500377.html[/video]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Toyed with the idea of using my 1st monthly IFT to get out this morning....as the upward action would have put me up over 2.7% for the month...with another chance to buy back in later this month.
But hesitated...because my system calls for exiting at new highs and using the S&P as that barometer...and we're not quite there yet.
But the S fund is currently at a new high...so I'm starting to get itchy trigger fingers.
If we're up significantly tomorrow early, I might use that opportunity to briefly exit for 1-3 days...and hope for a lower price to buy back in. Otherwise I'll just ride it out.

In the meantime, some interesting news from one of the FED chiefs...a fairly hawkish one who is very bullish on the US economy.

Fed’s Bullard says rate hikes are needed for coming ‘boom’

Published: Apr 15, 2015 10:41 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A leading hawk on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday made a case for raising interest rates soon, arguing the level needs to be appropriate for the coming “boom” for the U.S. economy....read more at link below.

Fed