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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Right now today's upswing should give my account another half percent, putting me over 6% for the month. :smile:
The more overheated the buying gets this last hour, the better the chance of a 1-day profit-taking day Monday...giving me a better price to jump back in.
Word is that Euro Zone will now "consider" a 4 month vs 6 month extension for Greece...but nothing firm yet. Will wait and see if rioting pops up in the streets of Athens this weekend over their "no more austerity" party hinting at caving in.
The more overheated the buying gets this last hour, the better the chance of a 1-day profit-taking day Monday...giving me a better price to jump back in.
Word is that Euro Zone will now "consider" a 4 month vs 6 month extension for Greece...but nothing firm yet. Will wait and see if rioting pops up in the streets of Athens this weekend over their "no more austerity" party hinting at caving in.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
That's scary brother. I worry about inadvertently leading others over a cliff with me.:worried:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
That's kind of what I was counting on, at least in the short term.
Nice part of exiting at a top is that if the end of the road means going over the cliff, that's actually more potential gain...as long as you don't wait too long on getting back in.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Great job on your return this month!
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Thanks Wx. I would be happy with the performance you had last year, beating almost 90% of the crowd.:smile:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, seems stepping out COB Fri is paying a small dividend this morning with major indices down slightly.
However, will not push it as indices already rising sharply from their morning lows, and will be using 2nd IFT to get back in.
Will reload with more of an I Fund mix...not sure whether to go all -I- or maybe just 50% I and the other 50% a mix of C and S. Will decide in the next 15 min.
I Fund chart (below) certainly shows more upside potential, with a recent cross-over of the 20 day EMA above the 50, but still below the 200 day EMA.
That's a sign that not only are things turning bullish but they have a long way to go...and the -I- is still about 10% below its highs last summer.
However, will not push it as indices already rising sharply from their morning lows, and will be using 2nd IFT to get back in.
Will reload with more of an I Fund mix...not sure whether to go all -I- or maybe just 50% I and the other 50% a mix of C and S. Will decide in the next 15 min.
I Fund chart (below) certainly shows more upside potential, with a recent cross-over of the 20 day EMA above the 50, but still below the 200 day EMA.
That's a sign that not only are things turning bullish but they have a long way to go...and the -I- is still about 10% below its highs last summer.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
As stated earlier...have jumped back in. New allocation: 60% I...20% S... 20% C
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, my 1 day exit (and re-entrance) has paid dividends.
Went from about 133 on the Monthly Tracker up to 14 in one day!
However, the goal of my new strategy is not to try to win a monthly coffee cup (although they do look nice).
The goal is to beat the market. Stay with the market 90-95% of the time, then when a really good opportunity comes up, exit but quickly get back in.
Currently this month as of COB Tue my account is +6.50% for Feb.
Our other funds have:
C +6.27%
S +6.34%
I +5.63%
The move Fri-Mon was not any sort of stroke of brilliance, just an example that a broken clock can be right twice a day. I had exited stocks (C and S) COB Friday because we had quickly shot up to new highs AND Greece deal had not been totally finalized. When it appeared finalized early Monday, I was pleased to see a little short term profit taking going on (which often happens after a new high), so I quickly used my 2nd IFT to get back in. This time I reloaded differently...previously I stayed domestic (50% S and 50% C), but had been eying the -I- fund like many here, so Monday I jumped back in with a 60% I fund mix along with 40% domestic. Well, since the S fund was the top performer this month so many ranked above me were mostly or fully in it. But on the one day that I missed a slight dip (Monday) coupled with the I fund outperforming all others on Tuesday, my account leapfrogged quite a bit. We'll see how the rest of the month plays out, but most ahead of me are well allocated in both S and I like myself so I doubt a coffee mug is in the cards this month.:embarrest:
But back to the real game...when to exit.
A few weeks ago a really sharp analyst on CNBC felt that the charts dictated a short term high of about 2140-2150 on the S&P. Looking at the chart below that fits well with the current peak trend-line...and sets that target about 5-10 trading days from now. So will keep eying that, and will use that as a barometer to possibly exit briefly for just a few days. Good luck to all of you.:smile:
Went from about 133 on the Monthly Tracker up to 14 in one day!
However, the goal of my new strategy is not to try to win a monthly coffee cup (although they do look nice).
The goal is to beat the market. Stay with the market 90-95% of the time, then when a really good opportunity comes up, exit but quickly get back in.
Currently this month as of COB Tue my account is +6.50% for Feb.
Our other funds have:
C +6.27%
S +6.34%
I +5.63%
The move Fri-Mon was not any sort of stroke of brilliance, just an example that a broken clock can be right twice a day. I had exited stocks (C and S) COB Friday because we had quickly shot up to new highs AND Greece deal had not been totally finalized. When it appeared finalized early Monday, I was pleased to see a little short term profit taking going on (which often happens after a new high), so I quickly used my 2nd IFT to get back in. This time I reloaded differently...previously I stayed domestic (50% S and 50% C), but had been eying the -I- fund like many here, so Monday I jumped back in with a 60% I fund mix along with 40% domestic. Well, since the S fund was the top performer this month so many ranked above me were mostly or fully in it. But on the one day that I missed a slight dip (Monday) coupled with the I fund outperforming all others on Tuesday, my account leapfrogged quite a bit. We'll see how the rest of the month plays out, but most ahead of me are well allocated in both S and I like myself so I doubt a coffee mug is in the cards this month.:embarrest:
But back to the real game...when to exit.
A few weeks ago a really sharp analyst on CNBC felt that the charts dictated a short term high of about 2140-2150 on the S&P. Looking at the chart below that fits well with the current peak trend-line...and sets that target about 5-10 trading days from now. So will keep eying that, and will use that as a barometer to possibly exit briefly for just a few days. Good luck to all of you.:smile:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I hear ya.
But if we get up to 2138-2142 and start getting choppy, then I would not wait any longer.
Something about the bulls & bears always have place to go, but the pigs always get slaughtered.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Thanks for the link Jason!
I like your breakdown of all our funds. Worth a read for anyone here...that's for sure.
Temporally...I agree with the early March timing. Getting a little worried though that we're getting too choppy right now, but am hoping those "late buyers" come in during the next few days. Another 1.5% would put us near 2148
Thank you!:smile:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Will attempt to do a "monthly wrap-up" in order to digest what went right and learn from anything that went wrong.
Again, the main investment strategy this year was to stay in stocks most of the time...with only a brief exit...only at a new high (or a black swan news event).
The investment goal is to be even with the markets in most months, but finish slightly ahead of them in some others. Those "slightly ahead" months might only be a fraction better, but having 4 out of 12 months where you finish +0.25% to +0.50% on our stock funds would put you 1 to 2% above the stock funds at the end of the year. As I said before in most years(except a bear year) that would put you in the top 5% of the tracker every time (top 50) and in 1 or 2 years you would actually WIN the entire yearly tracker.
So lets get down to business. First, for February I was in the market every day except 1 (in 95% of time).
Initially I was allocated 50% C and 50% S. After stepping aside one day (COB Fri 2/20), I re-loaded again COB Mon Feb 23 but with a vastly different allocation, weighed more heavily in the I fund (60% I, 20% S, 20% C).
This was for the last week of the month which proved to be a good move, because the I Fund outperformed all other stock funds (except the -F-) in the final week (below).
[TD="align: center"] G +0.03%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] F +0.70%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C -0.24%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S -0.32%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +0.49%
[/TD]
So for February...my account gained +6.55%.
The other major funds gained:
[TD="align: center"] G +0.13%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] F -0.91%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C +5.75%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S +6.05%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +5.97%
[/TD]
In the yearly game...I am only ahead of the C fund...because of being heavily weighed in it (50% C and 50% S) from the start of the year into the 3rd week of February. The C fund was the weakest (by far) of our 3 stock funds.
So for the year so far...my account gained +3.97%.
The overall funds since Jan 1st weigh in at:
[TD="align: center"] G +0.31%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] F +1.20%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C +2.58%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S +4.09%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +7.24%
[/TD]
So despite staying fully invested, its possible to still lag behind some of our stock funds, depending on which funds one picks to stay in. I'm hoping that the re-allocation more heavily weighed in the I Fund (but still 40% mixed S and C) pays better dividends this coming month. For those who might be following, as per conversation with JTH, an S&P short term target in the 2140's is the next possible brief exit target. We'll see how it all plays out. Good luck to all of you.:smile:
Again, the main investment strategy this year was to stay in stocks most of the time...with only a brief exit...only at a new high (or a black swan news event).
The investment goal is to be even with the markets in most months, but finish slightly ahead of them in some others. Those "slightly ahead" months might only be a fraction better, but having 4 out of 12 months where you finish +0.25% to +0.50% on our stock funds would put you 1 to 2% above the stock funds at the end of the year. As I said before in most years(except a bear year) that would put you in the top 5% of the tracker every time (top 50) and in 1 or 2 years you would actually WIN the entire yearly tracker.
So lets get down to business. First, for February I was in the market every day except 1 (in 95% of time).
Initially I was allocated 50% C and 50% S. After stepping aside one day (COB Fri 2/20), I re-loaded again COB Mon Feb 23 but with a vastly different allocation, weighed more heavily in the I fund (60% I, 20% S, 20% C).
This was for the last week of the month which proved to be a good move, because the I Fund outperformed all other stock funds (except the -F-) in the final week (below).
| % Change week |
[TD="align: center"] G +0.03%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] F +0.70%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C -0.24%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S -0.32%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +0.49%
[/TD]
So for February...my account gained +6.55%.
The other major funds gained:
[TD="align: center"] G +0.13%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] F -0.91%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C +5.75%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S +6.05%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +5.97%
[/TD]
In the yearly game...I am only ahead of the C fund...because of being heavily weighed in it (50% C and 50% S) from the start of the year into the 3rd week of February. The C fund was the weakest (by far) of our 3 stock funds.
So for the year so far...my account gained +3.97%.
The overall funds since Jan 1st weigh in at:
| % Change year |
[TD="align: center"] G +0.31%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] F +1.20%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] C +2.58%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] S +4.09%
[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%, align: center"] I +7.24%
[/TD]
So despite staying fully invested, its possible to still lag behind some of our stock funds, depending on which funds one picks to stay in. I'm hoping that the re-allocation more heavily weighed in the I Fund (but still 40% mixed S and C) pays better dividends this coming month. For those who might be following, as per conversation with JTH, an S&P short term target in the 2140's is the next possible brief exit target. We'll see how it all plays out. Good luck to all of you.:smile:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Time is short here (15 min to decide) but am leaning to briefly selling into G COB today and lock in todays gains,
Don't see any real potential good news from Fed statement mid-week.
However charts are starting to look bullish, we had a nice reversal off the days lows on Friday along with todays surge.
This breaks my system of selling only at highs (which I should have done 2 weeks ago).
Someone talk me out of this (lol)
Don't see any real potential good news from Fed statement mid-week.
However charts are starting to look bullish, we had a nice reversal off the days lows on Friday along with todays surge.
This breaks my system of selling only at highs (which I should have done 2 weeks ago).
Someone talk me out of this (lol)
Whipsaw
Well-known member
Seems a number of folks on the A/T moved to G/F, didn't see you! Somebody got to you?
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