ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Looks like I'm going to miss the ceasefire rally today. I hope there's something left for Tuesday, I just made an IFT back to the I fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

Monday's rally fizzled, but Tuesday's rally turned out to be the real deal (wire-to-wire). The I fund gained +.30 cents and we're back on the black for the month of August. Staying with the I fund till Wednesday, but will be back on the F fund for safety on Thursday. Good luck for tomorrow.

 

[ebbnflow]

Made an IFT to be on the I fund for Friday. If we get a sell-off today, it might be a good time to catch a bounce.

 

[ebbnflow]

The market has'nt had a five-bagger in a long while. Hoping for an FV on the I find today. I see the ebb tracker not shying away from more baggers early next week. We know the market is preggers, but how long can she hold it in?

 

[ebbnflow]

This week's harvest was plentiful with all three equity funds (C, S and I) showing gains. It turned out the ebb tracker didn't have to do any work at all. Like last week, it went three out of five predicting the day-to-day direction of the market, but only this time, we saw lots of green. For the record, the ebb tracker has shown a profit in eight out of eleven weeks it has been tracked (8Wins/3Losses). Next week, we still have to see the full extent of the Japanese market's reaction from China raising its interest rate. Monday should be interesting, if not good for the I fund. Good luck for next week.

 

[ebbnflow]

The way the markets were going, I didn't expect to gain anything, but as it turned out the dollar took a pounding from the pound and euro. The I fund ended up with decent gain of +.04 cents. I'm sticking with the I fund for tomorrow (Tuesday) and will go for safety to the F fund for Wednesday. We might expect a lot of red by then. Good luck and be well.

 

[ebbnflow]

The Feds spoiled it for the I fund (-.04 cents) yesterday by raising fear on inflation. What is lurking around the corner -- inflation or recession? Which camp do we believe? Switching to the I Fund for Thursday. Good luck.

 

[ebbnflow]

The only thing I can ask of the ebb tracker is to take a good guess at the market's day-to-day movement. It guessed up for today (which it was barely), but unfortunately the I fund got left behind (-.04 cents). The foreign markets seem poised to follow the U.S. market's trend for tonight and with the U.S. dollar moving downward, we should be in good position to gain a profit by tomorrow. The market is also seeking any bit of positive news for it to rally on, Mr Bernanke's talk might provide one for us. :blink: Still on the I fund and down -.04 cents for the week. Good luck to all.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker didn't get the job done last week (-.13 cents), but it's still up over one percent for the month of August with Monday's gain of +.06 cents. The dollar seems to be on the down trend and for the first time in a long while the Asian markets are up tonight. I will remain on the I fund for Tuesday and going for safety on Wednesday to the F fund. Good luck all.

 

[FundSurfer]

What is making you dive for F at this point? Expecting an up day today and reverse bounce tommorrow? Or are you expecting some of the economic data to not be good? (I think with so much data being released that we will get mixed signals and the market will flounder about this afternoon and tommorrow after a morning rise.) Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.

 

[grandma]

Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.

Me too...did I make my move too soon?
Your Avatar is a Dandy !!!! Keep it !!

 

[ebbnflow]

What is making you dive for F at this point? Expecting an up day today and reverse bounce tommorrow? Or are you expecting some of the economic data to not be good? (I think with so much data being released that we will get mixed signals and the market will flounder about this afternoon and tommorrow after a morning rise.) Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.

Hi ya FundSurfer! I'm through following my emotions when it comes to reading the market. I've also tried coaxing the market to listen to me, but it's just plain too ornery. Now, I leave it all up to the ebb tracker. A little truism: The more absolute the system and the less subjective it is, the better.

Me too...did I make my move too soon?
Your Avatar is a Dandy !!!! Keep it !!

Hi ya Grandma! Glad you liked it. I still need to smooth it out a bit (hard when you have only 20kb to work with). I'm trying out some of the new avatars I captured from advertisement banners. In the meantime, my old avatar Nostranumbus is taking a much needed respite.

 

[FundSurfer]

I leave it all up to the ebb tracker. A little truism: The more absolute the system and the less subjective it is, the better.

I agree. Just curious what signal caused the ebb tracker to switch. Guess I've been watching your moves and I have not been able to figure a basis for your decisions. I have noticed that you have made good moves and done well. Your moves also seem to be planned days in advance or at least that is the impression you've given on a couple occasions. What is the absolute data you're analyzing?

 

[ebbnflow]

I agree. Just curious what signal caused the ebb tracker to switch. Guess I've been watching your moves and I have not been able to figure a basis for your decisions. I have noticed that you have made good moves and done well. Your moves also seem to be planned days in advance or at least that is the impression you've given on a couple occasions. What is the absolute data you're analyzing?

I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle. To wit: the dollar like the market has its ebbs and flows. I study the output I get from the ebb tracker after tracking the dollar in relation to the major foreign currencies (euro, yen and pound). I have tons of patterns stored by the ebb tracker and by comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form. This trend tells me if it's either going downward or upward. The more the pattern shows up, the stronger the trend and the more likely I'm going to guess it right. It's getting less and less frequent that the ebb tracker comes across a pattern it hasn't seen yet. I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends.

I watch the S&P 500's support/resistance level, and the news. But I try not to put too much weight on things I can't control because the best I could do is guess on it's probability to affect the market. After running my checklist, I'm good to go.

 

[EW_ret]

EbbnFlow Sign

We discovered this sign at the aquarium on island of Maui, Hawaii. I thought of you and took picture. I can email you the full image if you cannot read it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: EbbnFlow Sign

We discovered this sign at the aquarium on island of Maui, Hawaii. I thought of you and took picture. I can email you the full image if you cannot read it.

Saved the picture, thanks EWGuy! I can just imagine the beautiful rhythm of life on Hawai'i's pristine beaches. Makes me want to go to the beach and play some beach golf (stick standard golf hole cups in sand, flagsticks optional).

 

[ebbnflow]

Yes! The ebb tracker actually picked up a penny from the F-fund while the I-fund got flatlined with a negative FV correction (-.15 cents). I will be staying put on the F-fund for Thursday, but I will be back on the I-fund for Friday. Good luck to all.

 

[Griffin]

I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle......comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form.......I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends.......After running my checklist, I'm good to go.

Ebb,

I thought I would let you know that I have also been watching your moves and have found it fascinating that you call your moves days in advance and stick to them.

It sounds to me like you are using chart patterns, sort of. I keep a running spreadsheet that graphically represents daily returns. I find that there is a lot of good information in analyzing just the returns data void of actual prices. Are you doing something similiar?

Much of my process is based on a projection of the formation of patterns and while I anticipate a window in which I expect the patterns to form. I don't set a hard timeline.

What advantage do you feel you gain by setting these strict timelines?

 

[ebbnflow]

I thought I would let you know that I have also been watching your moves and have found it fascinating that you call your moves days in advance and stick to them.

It sounds to me like you are using chart patterns, sort of. I keep a running spreadsheet that graphically represents daily returns. I find that there is a lot of good information in analyzing just the returns data void of actual prices. Are you doing something similiar?

Much of my process is based on a projection of the formation of patterns and while I anticipate a window in which I expect the patterns to form. I don't set a hard timeline.

What advantage do you feel you gain by setting these strict timelines?

Good Griffin, thanks! The timelines I adhere to are dictated by trends I get from the ebb tracker. Laying the track for the week is dependent on the trends from last week's patterns. And depending on the patterns it came from, each trend has a short half-life of from one to four days. That about covers most of the week in advance. I then arrive at a concensus from the uptrends and downtrends that overlap for each day of the week.

So far, knock on wood, I haven't gotten a negative return throughout the year using the ebb tracker (more if you count backtesting). My goal is to reach over 30% return for the year. :nuts: By the way, I stopped posting my moves too far ahead of time because I find a lot of people getting confused. Anyways, I'm glad to know you're also following patterns and trends. God knows we need all the edge we can get.

 

[Griffin]

....each trend has a short half-life of from one to four days.....

....My goal is to reach over 30% return for the year......

3-6 trading days is the time frame that I use. I believe the day to day stuff is impossible to manage.

I never tell people what to do, but 30% is a very ambitious goal....potentially setting you up for frustration and gambling - not a winning combination

My goal is to beat the best performing fund with a a secondary goal of 2-3% extra. I like reasonable doable goals with a margin for error..... they lead to a permenant state of bliss :nuts: