ebbnflow's Account Talk

[Retire]

EBB,
Thanks for the reply! I have been IFTng my TSP for about 6 years. While I have done well over the years, I have not done that well this past few months. I'm trying to break out of a capital preservation mindset I find myself in these past few months. I too like the I fund, but have been too conservative and missed many good IFT's. You mention the EBB tracker. Is that private stock, or do you share it with others? I imagine your posts are the extent of what you share? As stated, I am new to this website, and have alot of catching up to do to figure out what the strategies are of some posters.

Thanks for the reply, looking forward to seeing your trades.

 

[ebbnflow]

You're welcome, Retire. I know what you mean, we all have to deal with our own risk/pain tolerance. Anyways, the TSP Tracker had me at +5.28% for the month of June (I started posting at 06/07/06). This month I'm only down -.12% (two cents worth), so I could be back in the black today if the I Fund cooperates. :nuts:

The ebb tracker is what I named the system I've been developing since last year to help me time the market better. I had great results backtesting last year's data using the ebb tracker, but since I was still tweaking the system at the time, I couldn't say for sure if any of the results were just self-fulfilling prophecy or not. :blink:

I had to try it out this year for real (not on paper or simulated) before I can be certain it's doing the job it's supposed to do, and so far it hasn't disappointed (+19.40% YTD). A lot of technical analysts are predicting little change or gain the rest of the year for equities with high volatility thrown in between. Watch those choppy waters, good luck and have fun investing.

 

[ebbnflow]

The week started bleak, but the ebb tracker was able to salvage the month with a +1.87% gain for the day. The ebb tracker is at +1.75% while the I Fund is at +1.03% for the month. With only one more day left for July, the I Fund can still beat me. That's because I made an interfund transfer to the F Fund for Monday. :cheesy: Tally for the ebb tracker for almost two months is a healthy +7.03%. :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker has been tracked for eight weeks and shown a profit in six of them (W6/L2) for a gain of +7.03%. For next week, this is the plan:

Monday - 100% F Fund
Tuesday - 100% I Fund
Wednesday - 100% I Fund
Thursday - 100% I Fund (only day I'm worried about)
Friday - 100% I Fund

Have a good weekend to all and good luck for next week. One more thing, I think I would be remiss if I don't redirect your attention to this thread:

Pomegranate and me

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker is running contrarian all week, it's a tough sell, but so far so good.

 

[ebbnflow]

Where's an FV when you need one? :notrust: Oh well, the ebb tracker did warn me about this day (only the C and S Fund went up). Tomorrow should be a good one for the I Fund, though. I'm also staying put on the I Fund for Monday. :nuts: I'm not seeing any sell signals yet. As for the rest of next week, I have to wait for Friday.

 

[Retire]

Where was this assessment earlier in the day? Trying to step out of the boat I went 1/2 S&I, had not seen you post so I was to nervous to go 100% I. :embarrest:

 

[ebbnflow]

I usually post all my moves a week or days ahead of time. Check out 07/29/2006 (post#64).

 

[ebbnflow]

It's another good week for the ebb tracker. When I found out it's going contrarian all week I had my doubts, but it's a good thing I didn't go against it. I can tell you right now, without the ebb tracker, I'd be lost. :nuts: This week, we had a +.12 cents (+.61%) gain. In the nine weeks it's been tracked, it's shown a profit in seven (7Wins/2Losses). Yep, I can feel the hubris flowing, but I know there's still a lot of work to be done.

 

[ChemEng]

How are you counting your win/loss ratio? Is it just the number of days you get a + return against number of daya get - return? Or is there something more to it?

 

[ebbnflow]

I've started posting my IFTs since 06/07/2006. That's about nine weeks of being tracked by the TSP Tracker. A winning week for me is anytime I get a positive return for the week. Tracking aside, YTD, every month the ebb tracker has shown a profit (no negative returns). Knock on wood.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker has laid the tracks for most of next week. So here goes nothing...Boss, the plan, the plan!

Monday - 100% on the I Fund
Tuesday - 100% on the F Fund
Wednesday - 100% on the I Fund
Thursday - 100% on the I Fund
Friday - Gotta wait!

Good luck for next week.

 

[Retire]

I must admit, I am intrigued by the ebb tracker. Trying to follow your posts, when you say:

Monday - 100% on the I Fund
Tuesday - 100% on the F Fund
Wednesday - 100% on the I Fund
Thursday - 100% on the I Fund
Friday - Gotta wait!

Does that mean IFT on Monday or IFT Tuesday? Thanks for your patience; I'm trying not to interrogate you to death, though it may seem so.:worried:

 

[ebbnflow]

No problem, Retire. Let's see:

For Monday (I want to remain on the I Fund), I don't have to make any IFT because I'm already on the I Fund.
For Tuesday (I want to be on the F Fund), I'd have to make an IFT before noon Monday to be on the F Fund.
For Wednesday (I want to be back on the I Fund), I'd have to make an IFT before noon Tuesday to be back on the I Fund.

 

[TSP-roulette]

Greetings Ebbnflow: Just wondering if your fund distributions will be the same as last week's. I believe you mentioned staying in "I" fund at least for this coming Mon Aug 7th. and that you were waiting for Friday's market results to decide on next week's distribution. I use "S" fund often when deciding on IFT's, but have made some nice strides with "I" fund, thanks to the good info you provide in your posts. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts about the "I" fund are for next week. I don't post often; I joined the forum 2 years ago but the computer cops at work decided to block the web site. I have a long commute to work and back home. A part time job on weekends to make ends meet leaves little time but to just quickly lurke and read the good info a lot of you good people provide. Anyway, thanks for posting your fund strategies and thanks to the rest of the forum members likewise.

TSP-roulette

 

[ebbnflow]

Nice of you to drop by, TSP-roulette. I already posted my moves for the coming week on page six (post#72). Here is the link: [url="http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6#72]click here[/url].
Don't go overboard now and do some capital preservation (better to be safe than sorry). I only go 100% because I got some more years left before retirement.

 

[ebbnflow]

Got robbed by the FV again (+.18 cents) today, but hopefully we'd get it back Thursday because I'm going back to the F Fund for Friday.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm back on the F fund today (Friday), and for the third time in a row, I'm going to end up with a negative return coming on the 2nd week of each month (June, July and August). I won't be chasing a win for the week by going with the I fund, though, the ebb tracker is seeing red for today and Monday of next week. Staying away from the I fund for a couple of days.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker was mostly right all week concerning the direction of the market. It didn't win anything, but didn't lose much ground, either. Out of ten weeks, it has won in seven and lost in only three. Funny thing though, all of the three losses came on the 2nd week of every month (June, July and August). Maybe I should just avoid the 2nd week of every month.

 

[ebbnflow]

I did some analysis about the actual strength and weakness of the ebb tracker's record on guessing the direction of the market from 06/07/06 to 08/11/06. I'm only looking at the equity funds of C, S, and I. An upward direction would be if two or more funds were up (good to be in the C, S and I). And a downward direction would be if two or more funds were down (we should be in the G or F fund for safety).

During this time period, the market was up only 20 times and was down 27 times (43%), it was tough pickings! However, the ebb tracker was right in predicting the market direction 29 times and was wrong 18 times (62%). More telling was its record in staying out of trouble. When the ebb tracker told me it was bad to be in the market, it was right 12 times and was wrong only 3 times (80%). :nuts: When the ebb tracker told me to be in stocks, it was right 17 times and wrong 15 times (53%). That surprised me as a bit low.