ebbnflow's Account Talk

[Wheels]

My goal is to beat the best performing fund with a a secondary goal of 2-3% extra.

This is almost my goal exactly when each year begins (since 2003 when I began my more proactive management of my TSP). Unfortunately I've never attained my goal. But I have managed to solidly beat the C fund each year so that's something I guess.

Ebb, how long have you been shooting for 30% a year? And I hesitate to ask this since we can't confirm your answer, but have you ever attained it?

 

[ebbnflow]

This is almost my goal exactly when each year begins (since 2003 when I began my more proactive management of my TSP). Unfortunately I've never attained my goal. But I have managed to solidly beat the C fund each year so that's something I guess.

Ebb, how long have you been shooting for 30% a year? And I hesitate to ask this since we can't confirm your answer, but have you ever attained it?

How ya doing, Wheels! I have been shooting for a goal of +30% since the start of the year when I've been able to attain over 30% backtesting the ebb tracker for last year. Using the ebb tracker, I'm closing in on that goal with a +24.30% return YTD. Still got four more months to go and feeling very bullish every step of the way.

 

[Wheels]

How ya doing, Wheels! I have been shooting for a goal of +30% since the start of the year when I've been able to attain over 30% backtesting the ebb tracker for last year. Using the ebb tracker, I'm closing in on that goal with a +24.30% return YTD. Still got four more months to go and feeling very bullish every step of the way.

So the short answer is never, although you appear to be well on your way for this year. Even your confirmed results of nearly 8% since June are impressive.

I recall someone on this board, I honestly don't remember who (it may have been Rolo who is no longer with us), claiming that they were shooting for 20% each year and they were very confident that it wasn't going to be difficult at all. I think they probably found out that it is quite difficult afterall.

I'm with Griffin that a goal of 30% every year seems a little lofty. In fact my stated goal of beating all the stock funds is pretty lofty as well, but I figure shoot for the moon and hopefully land among the stars. I hope you will be with us long term. I'd love to see if you can continue having such high confirmed returns. You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

 

[ocean]

Amazing EBB,

Achieving 30% last year and 24% YTD so far is incredible. Can I ask how long you have been using your ebb tracker and how long you have been with TSP so I may have a rough idea of the size of your portfolio (just kidding). Congrats. From now on, EBB will be in my priority watch list.

Ocean

 

[sugarandspice]

......You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.

 

[Show-me]

I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.

Ditto!!!

 

[ebbnflow]

So the short answer is never, although you appear to be well on your way for this year. Even your confirmed results of nearly 8% since June are impressive.

I recall someone on this board, I honestly don't remember who (it may have been Rolo who is no longer with us), claiming that they were shooting for 20% each year and they were very confident that it wasn't going to be difficult at all. I think they probably found out that it is quite difficult afterall.

I'm with Griffin that a goal of 30% every year seems a little lofty. In fact my stated goal of beating all the stock funds is pretty lofty as well, but I figure shoot for the moon and hopefully land among the stars. I hope you will be with us long term. I'd love to see if you can continue having such high confirmed returns. You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

Thanks a heap, Wheels! I never did manage to get +30%, but I did come close. By the way, I'm already up +9.5% on EWGuy's Weekly Tracker (started in June). Anyways, I got swept during the dot.com era when the bubble burst. Recovered nicely on the C-fund (+28%) in 2003. From all the data I started to accumulate, I started switching funds, and got a return of 25% in 2004 and 15% in 2005. I got dissatisfied with the way I was doing things, like waiting for a fund to drop down in price so I can jump back in, only to see the fund takeoff.

Discovered a way to store my collected data using arrays (never thought Algebra would come in handy in real life) into a database. That's when I was able to manipulate the ebb tracker's database for backtesting 2005 (+30%). Obtaining practically the same results this year is an eye opener. However, a couple of years does not a system make (reality check). I think it should take at least five years of consistent returns.

Amazing EBB,

Achieving 30% last year and 24% YTD so far is incredible. Can I ask how long you have been using your ebb tracker and how long you have been with TSP so I may have a rough idea of the size of your portfolio (just kidding). Congrats. From now on, EBB will be in my priority watch list.

Hi ya, Ocean! Glad to see myself on the Ocean's list. I'll try my best not to fall off the list. In regards to my portfolio, I can safely say that I don't have half the Power Account you and Wheels possess. For your question of when I started the ebb tracker, please refer to my reply to Wheels above.

I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.

Thanks for the kind words of encouragement, S&S. Now the pressure is really on! Wish me luck. By the way, can you tell me what Sugar (or is that Spice) doing on top of the roof in the middle of the night? :cheesy:

Sugar or Spice!

Ditto!!!

Thanks, Show-me, got your message! There's something about the moonlight and people getting good returns for August that make me wanna...:nuts:

I hope for a good September.

 

[ocean]

EBB,

Thanks for the reply. I would say that you turned yourself into the TSPtalk site celebrity in a matter of just a few hours. Because your discussion with Wheels in one of the thread regarding your tracking system and how you apply it to IFT and along with your record.

What amazed me is that the explosive returns record showed on your June, July and August tracker proved that it is real. It seems that you only allocate your asset in either 100% F or 100% I. It takes a lot of confident to do that. There are few members here would do 100% in one of the G, F, C, S and I fund. It already indicated that they are confident enough about their allocations. Namor, SS, and Birch (we all know Birch won’t move until C hits $17 anyway.) are in this group.

On the other hand, for the rest of the members, I did not mean the mix funds would indicate the lack of confident. It just simply means “diversify”.

Keep up with the good work and sure we are all watching you (please no pressure) . Thanks again.

 

[nnuut]

Right On! You go EBB, good job were all watchin'!
Norman

 

[ebbnflow]

EBB,

Thanks for the reply. I would say that you turned yourself into the TSPtalk site celebrity in a matter of just a few hours. Because your discussion with Wheels in one of the thread regarding your tracking system and how you apply it to IFT and along with your record.

What amazed me is that the explosive returns record showed on your June, July and August tracker proved that it is real. It seems that you only allocate your asset in either 100% F or 100% I. It takes a lot of confident to do that. There are few members here would do 100% in one of the G, F, C, S and I fund. It already indicated that they are confident enough about their allocations. Namor, SS, and Birch (we all know Birch won’t move until C hits $17 anyway.) are in this group.

On the other hand, for the rest of the members, I did not mean the mix funds would indicate the lack of confident. It just simply means “diversify”.

Keep up with the good work and sure we are all watching you (please no pressure) . Thanks again.

Thanks, Ocean! I was reading an article from a link sent in by Robo (thanks Robo!). Here are some excerpts from the article (in quotes):

It takes a 100% gain to make up the losses for those invested in in the S&P. It takes a 250% gain to make up the losses in Nasdaq investments. When a powerful advance is measured in 20% to 30% moves, you can easily see how long it will take to regain those huge losses.

I was just talking about my goal of +30% gains with Wheels!

Every Trader Needs A Trend

If you think about it, you will quickly realize every trader needs a trend to be successful.

No matter what trading method is used, whether it is pattern trading, swing trading, long term buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, buying or selling on news events, IPOs, splits, you name it. If the stock or mutual fund does not trend in the required direction after the trade is made, you cannot be profitable.

That explains a whole lot of what I've been doing: pattern trading with a little bit of fundamental and technical analysis, when patterns are not enough to see trends, to use as tie-breakers.

Some very astute market players have said that both fundamental and technical analysis approaches, though they can be profitable, usually are "no more profitable than an index fund."

There is a scary thought. All that work when an index fund could do as well?

But there is another approach that is almost never discussed. It is used by many hugely successful traders though the financial press seldom mentions it. In fact, many who use it are very quiet about their successes. They do not try to publicly prove themselves right, they just trade and make money.

This approach is the use of price to determine trends. Price does not forecast and it does not predict. Price is always right. If prices are moving up, the markets are advancing. Down and the markets are declining.

Hey Griffin, looks like we're on to something. Patterns and trends coming from the dollar and I-fund's prices combine to form a very robust multidimensional model. Ssshhh! Let's keep it quiet. My take on using price as a trend:

I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle. To wit: the dollar like the market has its ebbs and flows. I study the output I get from the ebb tracker after tracking the dollar in relation to the major foreign currencies (euro, yen and pound). I have tons of patterns stored by the ebb tracker and by comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form. This trend tells me if it's either going downward or upward. The more the pattern shows up, the stronger the trend and the more likely I'm going to guess it right. It's getting less and less frequent that the ebb tracker comes across a pattern it hasn't seen yet. I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends.

Catch you later, Ocean. Below is Robo's original link.

Investor or Trader... Which Are You?

Most market participants consider themselves to be "investors." But if you look at a list of the really big winners on Wall Street, you will see that most of those who make big profits, list themselves as "traders."

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[ebbnflow]

Right On! You go EBB, good job were all watchin'!
Norman

et tu, nnutte? Thanks.

 

[ebbnflow]

I may not be around for Tuesday, so I'm putting an IFT now to move to F-fund for Wednesday. Good luck all!

 

[ebbnflow]

Since acquiring my new avatar, The Golden Bull (Wall Street's market icon), the ebb tracker has been perfect (six out of six) in correctly switching between the I-fund (+.49 cents gain) and F-fund (+.03 cents gain). I may have to give my old avatar (Nostranumbus) a longer vacation. I also noticed the S-fund on a tear with the same record in six days.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker's lucky streak stands at seven correct picks between the I-fund and the F-fund. Even the S-fund had its streak stopped at six. I am still on the F-fund for Thursday, but will be testing the choppy waters of the I-fund on Friday. :blink: It's going to be a one day move.

 

[ocean]

EBB,

I have to say that your ebb tracker was spot on for the last 7 days. Man, whatever your tracker is, it is just amazing. Yes, I am watching your moves and I am speechless to see you move in and out of I and F and hit it perfectly with the market conditions like this. OK, let's see what will happen on Friday. Happy hoping.

Ocean

 

[ebbnflow]

EBB,

I have to say that your ebb tracker was spot on for the last 7 days. Man, whatever your tracker is, it is just amazing. Yes, I am watching your moves and I am speechless to see you move in and out of I and F and hit it perfectly with the market conditions like this. OK, let's see what will happen on Friday. Happy hoping.

Ocean

Thanks, Ocean. As long as it works, I'm good to go.

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker is up against the Jack of Spades (I don't exactly know what that means) :blink:, so getting the streak to nine would be a tall order, indeed. Anyways, we picked up a cent from the F-fund today and at the same time sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.28 cents). Tomorrow (Friday), I will be on the I-fund, then back on the F-fund for Monday. Don't look back now, but I think I just heard a house of cards crUMBle. :nuts: Good luck all!

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker was right in guessing the market to be on the up trend, but unfortunately we're on the I-fund (-.01 cent) :notrust:, and the streak ends at eight. With all the markets up for today, the only thing that kept the I-fund from partaking in the spoils was the strong showing of the dollar against the foreign currencies. We end the 1st week of September (Sept. 01 included) with a healthy gain of +1.29%. I will be back on the F-fund on Monday. The ebb tracker sees a lot of turbulence for next week. Good luck all!

 

[ebbnflow]

...We end the 1st week of September (Sept. 01 included) with a healthy gain of +1.29%...

Sorry, my mind must have been somewhere else. The actual gain for the week is +.99%. I did count Sept. 01 already. :embarrest:

 

[ebbnflow]

I will be back on the F-fund on Monday. The ebb tracker sees a lot of turbulence for next week. Good luck all!

Yep, the ebb tracker sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.19 cents), and it doesn't think the doom and gloom is about to end soon. For the first time in a long while, it doesn't see any good entry point for the week. I hate to be on the sidelines, but I will be remaining on the F-fund till Thursday.