ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Sorry, I knew I should have checked it first! Please disregard the numbers on the other posts.

2003.................................................................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (-.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...

2003 +.21 cents
2004 +.57 cents
2005 -.28 cents
2006 -1.06 (that's a dollar plus!)

 

[ebbnflow]

Good luck to all for today!

 

[ebbnflow]

...Strange as it may seem, the ebb tracker seems to be seeing a lot of patterns with down trends these days. For next week, the only day showing with an up trend is Wednesday (FOMC meeting). That's a one day move to the I-fund and then back again to the F-fund for Thursday. We just might see some fireworks on Wednesday, so be prepared!

After reviewing the ebb tracker one more time, I am making a revision for Thursday. I will be staying with the I-fund for Thursday and then transfer to the F-fund for Friday. Sorry for the confusion (I think I need to get glasses). Good luck to all!

 

[fabijo]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?

that's what I still can't get about the 'ebbtracker'..Limiting himself to F and I.
the dollar is somewhat tied to the ten yr yield ($TNX), so If the Dollar is down, the ten yr yield tends to be down, F fund tends to be up, and the I fund tends to be up. Ergo...I and F tend to trend in the same direction???
But you can't argue with his performance....so farrrrrrrr

 

[ebbnflow]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?

that's what I still can't get about the 'ebbtracker'..Limiting himself to F and I.
the dollar is somewhat tied to the ten yr yield ($TNX), so If the Dollar is down, the ten yr yield tends to be down, F fund tends to be up, and the I fund tends to be up. Ergo...I and F tend to trend in the same direction???
But you can't argue with his performance....so farrrrrrrr

Thanks fabijo and FUTURESTRADER for the much appreciated input. I've been doing some head scratching myself, but for some reason I never did anything about it (you know what they say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"). However, after some soul searching, I checked my ITFs to the F-fund from June to September, and finally decided to at least go to the G-fund for the G-penny whenever possible.

Jul 17 F (even)
Jul 24 F (+.01)
Jul 31 F (even)
Aug 17 F (even)
Aug 23 F (even)
Sep 11 F (-.01)
Sep 18 F (even)

The above dates were my ITFs to the F-fund when a move to the G-fund would have been wiser to pick up the penny. It looks like I missed out on +.07 cents worth. But I will be sticking to the F-fund for safe haven when the G-penny does not present itself because I have picked up +.08 cents from the F-fund in the same time period (above dates excluded). I may have to check Carnac's Corner more often to find out when the G-penny is due.

 

[ebbnflow]

...and finally decided to at least go to the G-fund for the G-penny whenever possible.

Dang, almost forgot about the G-penny. Thanks to the mlk_man with his talk about the G-penny on his thread.

 

[fedgolfer]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

 

[ebbnflow]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

Thanks for the heads-up, fedgolfer!

 

[vectorman]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

" but I doubt its ever happened "

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

 

[ebbnflow]

" but I doubt its ever happened "

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

Be that as it may, Carnac has spoken, and he says it's on the 25th! It's official.

 

[fedgolfer]

" but I doubt its ever happened "

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

Thanks for pickin' up the slack on my laziness... more proof this site is helpful to us all

 

[mailmanusa]

Just yesterday I was thinking about when the g penny hits and trying to learn about timing a change to take advantage of it. So who is Carnac? How do we figure when the penny is comming? if the penny is comming Monday, does that mean a change to the G fund would need to be made before noon on Fri-or Mon?

 

[nnuut]

CARNAC is the Technician, contact him he can answer all of your questions !
Norman

 

[tsptalk]

if the penny is comming Monday, does that mean a change to the G fund would need to be made before noon on Fri-or Mon?

Friday

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for filling in for me guys! We're running on cruise control and it's safe to say we'd end up with a solid gain for the week. I've already mapped out some plays for next week. Moving to the I-fund for Monday and Tuesday, then back on the F-fund for Wednesday. Drive safely and good luck to all!

 

[FundSurfer]

You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls!

G-fund Thread

 

[EW_ret]

Ebb is in G fund 100% today until the COB. So if G fund pays $0.01 tonight, like FundSufer predicts, Ebb will get the penny. He will be transfering tonight to the I fund for Monday.

 

[The_Technician]

You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls!

G-fund Thread

This message is harassment and full of just pure rudeness on your part FS.......you are trying to cause problems for other board members....

I believe if I was one to see some "new" methods and developments after a self proclaimation like yours, I think I would give it a few cycles to see if it holds true......your first test is tonight.....I have already went into the history and found your method failed multiple times...

I know mine method is right the majority of the time.....by the Crystal Ball...

The Crystal Ball rules....

Carnac

 

[FundSurfer]

Sorry Techy, it was a joke. Tell you what. If the penny doesn't pay tonight, I'll buy you lunch (OK, I'll mail you a gift certificate from Wendy's) and I'll promise to leave the penny prediction to the crystal ball. In addition I'll publicly post you were right and I was wrong.