ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

I think you're on the right track, ebb...Can't pass up a one day move for gauranteed penny (choice between F and G). Not many, IF ANY, gaurantees in this biz! And F MAY get you .01 or .02 in th coming days but still good chance to lose .01., i.e yesterday . Probably a little more Gold in those hills if you throw G and S into the mix, tho it does add a few more variables. The C fund is really the only fund that I see we could do with out...lol..sorry Birchy

Thanks, FUTURESTRADER! That makes it -.02 cents on the F-fund in two days. And, I was only a couple of cents shy of +3.00% for the month of September, too (ouch!). Anyways, the ebb tracker has all of next week's moves planned already. The only day that's sticking out like a sore thumb is Tuesday. Being in safe haven from Monday thru Thursday made more sense to me, since a big flip-flop could be just around the corner.

MON - G-fund
TUE - I-fund
WED - F-fund
THU - F-fund
FRI - I-fund

 

[airlift]

Thanks, FUTURESTRADER! That makes it -.02 cents on the F-fund in two days. And, I was only a couple of cents shy of +3.00% for the month of September, too (ouch!). Anyways, the ebb tracker has all of next week's moves planned already. The only day that's sticking out like a sore thumb is Tuesday. Being in safe haven from Monday thru Thursday made more sense to me, since a big flip-flop could be just around the corner.

MON - G-fund
TUE - I-fund
WED - F-fund
THU - F-fund
FRI - I-fund

--

Ebbnflow,--

You are doing the right thing to preserve capital. IMO, the correction started in full yesterday, even if it lasts only for 2 or 3 days. Best to let it fall and let the markets become oversold.

 

[ebbnflow]

--

Ebbnflow,--

You are doing the right thing to preserve capital. IMO, the correction started in full yesterday, even if it lasts only for 2 or 3 days. Best to let it fall and let the markets become oversold.

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday.

-

It's good to read you also. I believe that your system is giving you good signals and that either plus or minus a degree or so, it is giving you signs of an impending correction of sorts. (TA being a combination of art and sience -- maybe more art!). This is coincidental with other technical analysts who agree that a correction is due. Perhaps we will all be surprised with a "perverse" market that keeps rising on fumes, but the probabilities are siding with a correction (IMO). Unless this is privileged matter, is there a previous post where I can read in more detail and learn how your ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output works? Thanks in advance!

 

[ebbnflow]

-

It's good to read you also. I believe that your system is giving you good signals and that either plus or minus a degree or so, it is giving you signs of an impending correction of sorts. (TA being a combination of art and sience -- maybe more art!). This is coincidental with other technical analysts who agree that a correction is due. Perhaps we will all be surprised with a "perverse" market that keeps rising on fumes, but the probabilities are siding with a correction (IMO). Unless this is privileged matter, is there a previous post where I can read in more detail and learn how your ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output works? Thanks in advance!

That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article.

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach."

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

I have to stress that this information is top of the line. Thank you very much. I still have not studied this in depth, and I admit this will take some time do digest. However, I will observe, study and ask questions as part of my learning process. In fact, this will be sort of a reference post to which I will return as need be, until I understand fully how this works. I understand the virtues of trading with a mechanical system; but I have some apprehension also, because I have seen systems working efficiently in the late 1990's most of the time, but when they failed they took down people with significant losses. My very best hope lies in the certainty that, as you posted yesterday, you seem to be aware of this also. As I recall, yesterday you said that you are ready to overide the system. To me this means that you know what you are doing, and this gives me peace of mind, knowing that a rational mind like yours is in control. Once again, I thank you for responding in such a detailed fashion to my request. No doubt, this will also be of benefit to other colleagues in the I fund! --

That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article.

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach."

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

 

[airlift]

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday.

--Ebbnflow --Have you decided whether you are going to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday? Thank you in advance for posting your decision.

 

[ebbnflow]

--Ebbnflow --Have you decided whether you are going to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday? Thank you in advance for posting your decision.

Yep, just did a one day move to the I-fund for Tuesday. Market didn't look that bad today. :blink: I'll be back on the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday.

 

[airlift]

Yep, just did a one day move to the I-fund for Tuesday. Market didn't look that bad today. :blink: I'll be back on the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday.

--Ebbnflow --I read the very persuasive article dated September 29, 2006, by MARK HULBERT, and did a quick scan through the other links you posted. Since I am still in a learning mode, please don't fail to post your changes as you make your moves. I still don't know what the cost of this system is. Can you help with this?

 

[ChemEng]

sponsor... Do you got a link to the article?

 

[airlift]

Gladly!, scroll up to message #185 ion this thread, where Ebbnflow kindly summarized the more salient points. Click on the article link! and also read the other links. -- Say you opinion ASAP! ---

sponsor... Do you got a link to the article?

 

[ChemEng]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening?

 

[pyriel]

Ebb,
I'm already on my one knee and if your prediction comes true about the i fund tomorrow, the other knee will follow... I'll leave the bowing and praising for a later date....;-)

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,--

Are you moving your allocation to F tomorrow, or are you going to override the tracker. Whatever you do, I hold myself responsible for having gone to I today. It was a risky decision and I understand the risks. Moreover, the article written by Mark Hulbert clearly states that for these automatic systems to be effective, an investor should have a longer term horizon and ride the waves. The fact that I chose a high risk moment to enter the system is my own responsibility. So, I may accept my bad judgement tomorrow, cut my losses, and may just go back to the G fund. In any event, We will appreciate your opinion ASAP. Keep posting!

 

[ebbnflow]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening?

That's right ChemEng, the ebb tracker is a database. Buy/sell signals are from uptrend/downtrend cycles I get from patterns that matches up with the ebb tracker. I don't think it's wise to share the technical stuff behind it at this time. Explaining the hows and whys of gathering data would be enough to dissuade me from doing this. Besides, it hasn't even been tested long enough to be considered a success. I also believe that a system needs to have some secrets for it to be truly appreciated. Isn't that right, Gilligan?

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow,--

Are you moving your allocation to F tomorrow, or are you going to override the tracker. Whatever you do, I hold myself responsible for having gone to I today. It was a risky decision and I understand the risks. Moreover, the article written by Mark Hulbert clearly states that for these automatic systems to be effective, an investor should have a longer term horizon and ride the waves. The fact that I chose a high risk moment to enter the system is my own responsibility. So, I may accept my bad judgement tomorrow, cut my losses, and may just go back to the G fund. In any event, We will appreciate your opinion ASAP. Keep posting!

Go Birchy, go Birchy! You're absolutely right, Sponsor. I'm back to the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. I'm riding the ebb tracker like Birchy rides his bull. Yep, the mechanical approach to trading. I like the sound of that.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I'm already on my one knee and if your prediction comes true about the i fund tomorrow, the other knee will follow... I'll leave the bowing and praising for a later date....;-)

Pyriel, can't you give me at least a week, please?

 

[airlift]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening?

-

ChemEng --

In a previous post I asked Ebbnflow what was the cost of subscription and I did not get an answer. I took some risks by trying out his entries, but this is like flying blindly and without instruments. Not sure, but perhaps I will go to G or F today to cut losses, because this is a time to be cautious. It seems that his program seems to work as he is one of the leading individuals with a profitable track record on this board. Have you made sense of this? With his seemingly profitable record in this site, I wouldn't mind just being a follower, as long as this is the real thing. Is there any way we can get more info without offending sensibilities?

 

[ChemEng]

He obviously doesnt want to share it for whatever reason. Thats fine. The only reason that I can think to not share it is if there are any intentions of commercializing it at some point in the future. More power to him if thats the route he wants to take.

 

[Birchtree]

Sponsor,

Allow me to be delicate with your sensibilities - there are no systems. You are chasing after the holy grail of investing and it doesn't exist. All investing is about is mass psychology backed up with fundamentals and some technical analysis. When it comes right down to it you have to take your shot. Plan your strategy and use discipline with limited emotion - although the gut often times knows best. Think about all the people in the investment arena that have come before you - read some of their books. Many you will realize have previously flamed on their way to glory. Investing is truly more art than science - which makes it available to everyone, truly an equal opportunity to lose money. A wide open arena with lots of flexibility. Here is an example: Many years ago I was a health care department head during the Cater years of cost containment - Wall Street was scared to death that that was the end of the for profit industry. I of course knew better but still was forced to pay the price because I was alone in my thinking, but I kept adding to my pain by making more stock purchases in a down sector. About two years later when common sense began to prevail up comes the stock prices because earnings just continued to grow. And guess who was sitting there with their pockets full of health care stocks - it was a miracle that I was able to survive the hits, but that is when I slowly began to develope my strategy as a contrarian going against the crowd. The moral of this story is that you will eventually find your way - it's all trial and error. Good luck with the I fund.