ebbnflow's Account Talk

[airlift]

Birchtree --

Frankly, I do appreciate your good advise, and will keep it in mind. I called it a system for lack of a better term. However, I am refering to a mechanical system alluded to in an article dated September 29, 2006, by Mark Hulbert (please scroll up and read post #186). An interesting article, which Ebbnflow posted when I requested information. Of coruse I know the Holy Grail exists, that's why we keep looking for it!...

Sponsor,

Allow me to be delicate with your sensibilities - there are no systems. You are chasing after the holy grail of investing and it doesn't exist. All investing is about is mass psychology backed up with fundamentals and some technical analysis. When it comes right down to it you have to take your shot. Plan your strategy and use discipline with limited emotion - although the gut often times knows best. Think about all the people in the investment arena that have come before you - read some of their books. Many you will realize have previously flamed on their way to glory. Investing is truly more art than science - which makes it available to everyone, truly an equal opportunity to lose money. A wide open arena with lots of flexibility. Here is an example: Many years ago I was a health care department head during the Cater years of cost containment - Wall Street was scared to death that that was the end of the for profit industry. I of course knew better but still was forced to pay the price because I was alone in my thinking, but I kept adding to my pain by making more stock purchases in a down sector. About two years later when common sense began to prevail up comes the stock prices because earnings just continued to grow. And guess who was sitting there with their pockets full of health care stocks - it was a miracle that I was able to survive the hits, but that is when I slowly began to develope my strategy as a contrarian going against the crowd. The moral of this story is that you will eventually find your way - it's all trial and error. Good luck with the I fund.

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

I have read with awe and admiration the links you posted for me in post # 186. I also have re-read them. Thanks again. Yesterday I went into the I fund to test your system. Today, I plan to transfer to G or F. If I were really courageous I would transfer to F today, but I am somewhat apprehensive because I am relatively new to this board and I need to gain some confidence. But you have an impressive track record! All the members who have praised your work in this thread are your witnesses. Even if I transfer to G today, I will keep studying your posts. I anticipate that I will be back to your system after I get a breather! Please keep posting your indicators, because you will be doing a lot of good to many of us who read your account's progress.

 

[airlift]

I decided to transfer 100% to F. A risk taker, no doubt, but if I am trusting the track record I might as well test this in full. Wish me Luck!

 

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

Since I transferred 100% from I to F, before noon today, I need to stay as informed as I can be regarding your tracker or your decision to override it. I am sure that you are looking at the improvement in the US indices this afternoon. I don't want to claim victory yet, but it seems to me that if this keeps up in the Afternoon, tomorrow could be a good follow-up day for theI fund. Assuming that occurs, would you consider overriding the tracker which indicated that one is to stay in F until Thursday? Whatever you do, I will appreciate your updated opinion. Thank you.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow --

Since I transferred 100% from I to F, before noon today, I need to stay as informed as I can be regarding your tracker or your decision to override it. I am sure that you are looking at the improvement in the US indices this afternoon. I don't want to claim victory yet, but it seems to me that if this keeps up in the Afternoon, tomorrow could be a good follow-up day for theI fund. Assuming that occurs, would you consider overriding the tracker which indicated that one is to stay in F until Thursday? Whatever you do, I will appreciate your updated opinion. Thank you.

I will be posting as usual, Sponsor. I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be. The patterns in the ebb tracker's database are like historical snapshots of the market's performance on any given day. Matching today's patterns from past patterns to get a trend is what it does best. The fact that history has a way of repeating itself only makes it more compelling.

 

[ebbnflow]

What does the new Dow high mean? Do we get a rally for tomorrow or a couple of days pullback?

 

[airlift]

What does the new Dow high mean? Do we get a rally for tomorrow or a couple of days pullback?

-

This is the question! If wishful thinking had controlling weight in this, you can rest assured that tomorrow and Thursday would be down days, and that we would be in the I fund for Friday. Of course, I hope the tracker has picked up the right signals.

 

[weatherweenie]

"I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be."

I'd like to know what source you use to find the value of the I Fund ahead of the tsp site?

Based on the quote of the EFA I thought we'd be flat to slightly up.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

"I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be."

I'd like to know what source you use to find the value of the I Fund ahead of the tsp site?

Based on the quote of the EFA I thought we'd be flat to slightly up.

start here, weanie

http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp

then review I fund forum and fair value or FV references

 

[airlift]

Read this post and also review the links posted. ---

That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article.

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach."

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

 

[weatherweenie]

Is there a reliable source to track the I fund during the day?

 

[ebbnflow]

Is there a reliable source to track the I fund during the day?

I don't know of any besides Yahoo's EFA chart. We can usually have an idea of how the I-fund is doing by how the overseas markets performed. We can also check the USD index to see how the dollar is performing against the other currencies. An sharp upward movement by the US market can also affect the I-fund's price. A good example of that would be today. The Asian markets were down, Euro markets were up, dollar was up, and the I-fund was supposed to be -.074% down for the day, but as it turned out the US market took off like a rocket. The I-fund ended up with +.18 cents instead of losing a cent courtesy of a positive FV (+.19 cents). That FV should be corrected (given back) either tomorrow of Friday.

 

[ebbnflow]

Only three days in the month and the I-fund is already off like a rocket. The ebb tracker misfired today, but rest assured that this day has been duly noted and filed away. I was sitting on the F-fund (+.03 cents) while the I-fund (+.18 cents) advances with the help of hefty FV (+.19 cents). Still even for the week and getting antsy by the day.

 

[ebbnflow]

Psssttt, the bears are coming out of the woodworks!

 

[airlift]

Only three days in the month and the I-fund is already off like a rocket. The ebb tracker misfired today, but rest assured that this day has been duly noted and filed away. I was sitting on the F-fund (+.03 cents) while the I-fund (+.18 cents) advances with the help of hefty FV (+.19 cents). Still even for the week and getting antsy by the day.

--

Ebb --

Since the ebb tracker misfired yesterday, how would you play this? Are you going to override the tracker, which calls for a transfer from F to I today before noon? Your next post indicates that the bears are coming out of the woodwork. How are you handling this? Thanks in advance for your opinion before noon today.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I don't know of any besides Yahoo's EFA chart. We can usually have an idea of how the I-fund is doing by how the overseas markets performed. We can also check the USD index to see how the dollar is performing against the other currencies. An sharp upward movement by the US market can also affect the I-fund's price. A good example of that would be today. The Asian markets were down, Euro markets were up, dollar was up, and the I-fund was supposed to be -.074% down for the day, but as it turned out the US market took off like a rocket. The I-fund ended up with +.18 cents instead of losing a cent courtesy of a positive FV (+.19 cents). That FV should be corrected (given back) either tomorrow of Friday.

or could be a partial FV correction today and friday?? $.09 thurs/$.10 fri???..ol boy greggy had daily increments of 50% figured out pretty succesfully.

 

[ebbnflow]

--

Ebb --

Since the ebb tracker misfired yesterday, how would you play this? Are you going to override the tracker, which calls for a transfer from F to I today before noon? Your next post indicates that the bears are coming out of the woodwork. How are you handling this? Thanks in advance for your opinion before noon today.

I'm overriding the ebb tracker for the first time this year. I figured we're getting close to a full moon (July 7) anyways and the ebb tracker hasn't won on the second week of every month since June. It's not that I believe the full moon has an effect on it, more like the market reacting to people's subconcious awareness of the full moon.

 

[vectorman]

So by over-riding, are you staying F or thinking G?

 

[ebbnflow]

or could be a partial FV correction today and friday?? $.09 thurs/$.10 fri???..ol boy greggy had daily increments of 50% figured out pretty succesfully.

Yep, they have used partial FVs before, I think.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm overriding the ebb tracker for the first time this year. I figured we're getting close to a full moon (July 7) anyways and the ebb tracker hasn't won on the second week of every month since June. It's not that I believe the full moon has an effect on it, more like the market reacting to people's subconcious awareness of the full moon.

Just to be clear, I'm staying with the F-fund today.