ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

I am ticked off, but my cat's even more ticked off. The ebb tracker, while sitting on the F-fund (+.02 cents) , finally missed a big gain of +.24 cents by the I-fund. Since I got on board (June), the ebb tracker has been right about 62% of the time (day-to-day), so I do expect on missing out on some days. Still hate them days, though. Having that lucky streak sure has the odds catching up with me today and maybe tomorrow too.

 

[The_Technician]

I am ticked off, but my cat's even more ticked off. The ebb tracker, while sitting on the F-fund (+.02 cents) , finally missed a big gain of +.24 cents by the I-fund. Since I got on board (June), the ebb tracker has been right about 62% of the time (day-to-day), so I do expect on missing out on some days. Still hate them days, though. Having that lucky streak sure has the odds catching up with me today and maybe tomorrow too.

You can join me.....the hard increase sure came out of right field yesterday.....

 

[ebbnflow]

You can join me.....the hard increase sure came out of right field yesterday.....

Hi ya Techie! Yep, we dropped the ball (crystal ball?) on that one. Maybe it's time to use some of that black magic of yours on the market! Dang, seeing people jumping in on stocks is killing me. I'm not used to sitting on the sidelines the whole week and it's really testing my trigger finger. Don't get me wrong though, dodging the negative FV from the I-fund (-.06) is fine with me. Good luck all!

 

[The_Technician]

Hi ya Techie! Yep, we dropped the ball (crystal ball?) on that one. Maybe it's time to use some of that black magic of yours on the market! Dang, seeing people jumping in on stocks is killing me. I'm not used to sitting on the sidelines the whole week and it's really testing my trigger finger. Don't get me wrong though, dodging the negative FV from the I-fund (-.06) is fine with me. Good luck all!

Where do you guys get those neat avatars???

 

[Gilligan]

I'm back on the F fund today (Friday), and for the third time in a row, I'm going to end up with a negative return coming on the 2nd week of each month (June, July and August). I won't be chasing a win for the week by going with the I fund, though, the ebb tracker is seeing red for today and Monday of next week. Staying away from the I fund for a couple of days.

Ebb,
looks like your tracker has a bug in it that effects the second week of the month.

 

[ebbnflow]

Where do you guys get those neat avatars???

You can usually find these avatars from sites like TSPTalk, but seriously, I usually make them from pop-up/advertising banners (hey, if you can't beat 'em, use 'em) and from websites with animations/screensavers like these:

http://www.screensavers.com/landing/3d_pg2.html or you can try ready-made gifs from http://www.gifworks.com

There must be a better way of doing this (done no research on this), but I'm just telling it like how I'm doing it. I use a capture program (SnagIt from TechSmith) that I set to 'Record a video of the screen' using the fixed region option (set to 120 x 120) and save it as an avi movie. By the way, SnagIt is also nifty for capturing any window or picture on screen that's not savable using right-clicks.

I know I used to download lots of applications and came upon these gif programs through a search of my computer. One such program (Video Cleaner Pro with Animated Gif Booster Pack from River Past) is used to convert and edit the captured avi movie into animated gif. I then use a gif optimizer or the one online (gifworks.com) that's free to add borders/resize and keep the gif under 20 kilobytes in size. You can also make one from scratch if you wish, and after all is said and done, you're good to go. Feel free to use any of the gifs in here (just right-click and save).

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
looks like your tracker has a bug in it that effects the second week of the month.

Welcome aboard, Gilligan! Dang, I almost fell off my chair laughing. I totally forgot about the 2nd week of the month down cycle (bug?) for the ebb tracker. That explains why for this day (Thursday), with no trend showing up on the ebb tracker, I chose not to even check with other indicators available. Maybe my subconscious knew and decided to just lay low for the week. Anyways, good sailing, Gilligan.

 

[The_Technician]

The ebb tracker is up against the Jack of Spades (I don't exactly know what that means) , so getting the streak to nine would be a tall order, indeed. Anyways, we picked up a cent from the F-fund today and at the same time sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.28 cents). Tomorrow (Friday), I will be on the I-fund, then back on the F-fund for Monday. Don't look back now, but I think I just heard a house of cards crUMBle. Good luck all!

Hey EBB....I got my streak up to my last 13 trades to the positive of late....now it had to be 13 while I'm in the I fund....but "no worries mate", it won't bother me....hop to blow the top off on this one....nice not to lose any.....

 

[ebbnflow]

Hey EBB....I got my streak up to my last 13 trades to the positive of late....now it had to be 13 while I'm in the I fund....but "no worries mate", it won't bother me....hop to blow the top off on this one....nice not to lose any.....

Great streak and a good move to the I-fund (+.14 cents), Techie! But wait, are you trying to stretch a single into a double? Watch your step now or it's toaster heaven for your hard earned gains, it's September you know. Anyways...you're good to go...I'm good to go, so...there you go. :blink:

 

[Gilligan]

Ebb,
If the F gains a penny today, you'll be green for the week, Breaking the second week curse on the tracker.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
If the F gains a penny today, you'll be green for the week, Breaking the second week curse on the tracker.

Gilligan, I really thought this was the week to break the 2nd week curse. For crying out loud, I wasn't suppose to lose any money sitting on the freaking F-fund (-.01 cent for the day and the week). I pulled for the F-fund all week long and it's been really fun...not! Today, while expecting a penny from heaven, I even got to singing -- I feel greeny, oh so greeny, I feel greeny...oh never mind.

The curse continues...and to anybody using the ebb tracker as a guide, please go against it every 2nd week of the month. We'll call it the ebb tracker's down cycle seasonality. Anyways, the ebb tracker tracks cycles, so come to think of it, it makes a whole lot of sense for the ebb tracker to have a cycle of its own.

 

[ebbnflow]

Hi ya, Griffin! Thanks for the good info. The endless cyclic movement of the Earth's waters (ebb and flow) is caused mainly by the Moon's gravitational pull. It sure is spooky the way a Full Moon affects the ebb tracker, and it's not even Halloween yet! :blink: I think you got a chuckle out of the ebb tracker with your comment about women's...I see you just got edited, so I wouldn't even mention it. :cheesy:

Strange as it may seem, the ebb tracker seems to be seeing a lot of patterns with down trends these days. For next week, the only day showing with an up trend is Wednesday (FOMC meeting). That's a one day move to the I-fund and then back again to the F-fund for Thursday. We just might see some fireworks on Wednesday, so be prepared!

 

[ebbnflow]

Tip of the day: Why not use avatars/animated gifs (copy and paste to e-mails) along with smileys to personalize e-mails!

 

[Spaf]

ebb,
Some folks like the avatars you've made! Cool!.... You could make an avatar thread on the bulletin board! Just an idea!
I'd check with Tom first, get his ok!
Spaf

PS: Ebbatars......

 

[ebbnflow]

ebb,
Some folks like the avatars you've made! Cool!.... You could make an avatar thread on the bulletin board! Just an idea!
I'd check with Tom first, get his ok!
Spaf

PS: Ebbatars......

Thanks, Spaf. It's just a way to relax and pass the time, especially on days when I'm on the F-fund.

 

[Spaf]

Thanks, Spaf. It's just a way to relax and pass the time, especially on days when I'm on the F-fund.

The F-fund!..........Now that explains everything....

 

[Griffin]

...It sure is spooky the way a Full Moon affects the ebb tracker, and it's not even Halloween yet! :blink: I think you got a chuckle out of the ebb tracker with your comment about....

I'm glad you got to read the comment before it got wiped out....beware the full moon

 

[ebbnflow]

I just did a quick check on the full moon's (using universal time) effect on the I-fund:

Jun to Dec 2003 +.21 cents or +2.06% gain
Jan to Dec 2004 +.58 cents or +4.50% gain
Jan to Dec 2005 -.28 cents or -1.81% loss
Jan to Sep 2006 -1.06 cents or -6.03% loss

Since the market volume has increased the last couple of years, it looks like we could have saved a lot by totally avoiding the I-fund during a full moon. That's another seasonality to consider.

*Note: The dollar and cents are correct, but the percentage might be off (good approximation though).

 

[Pilgrim]

It's difficult to judge based only on the cumulative effect over a year. Would it be too much trouble to make bar graphs for each year with each month a data point? Sorta like the seasonality charts that Tom puts up?

 

[ebbnflow]

Pilgrim, I had the figures on wordpad, maybe this would put some light on it better:

2003.................................................................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (+.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...

Note: When the full moon falls on a weekend, then the following market day is the affected day.