coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It's ALIVE! :smile:

I guess it is. :smile:
[video]https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=frankenstein+it's+alive+clip&docid=607996595567331356&mid=BB91D7299618BCB9D15CBB91D7299618BCB9D15C&view=detail&FORM=VIRE[/video]

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tried to make another run to the upside to start the new week, but the sellers capped the rally; holding it to modest gains.




No real change to the charts. There bullish disposition remains in place.

The OEX is bearish for Tuesday. The CBOE is neutral to modestly bearish. Breadth was flat on the day, but of course remains bullish.

Steady as she goes for the bulls. We might see some selling on Tuesday given the bearish options, but that's not much for the bears to hang their hat on given breadth.

 

[coolhand]

We got a modest pullback today. The market could use a bigger one to reset the bullish momentum, but whether we get one in the short term remains to be seen. Certainly price is hitting resistance and many of my indicators are stretched. With NAAIM bullish, I am thinking any downside will still likely be limited, though that does not mean we can't have more than a modest, short-term dip. Beyond the short-term (for which I am neutral), I am leaning bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The battle between the bulls and bears continued today, generally ending in a draw.




The longer price dances around above the 200 dma, the harder it may be for the bears to get any serious traction. The charts look bullish, though price is moving sideways at the moment.

The options are neutral. Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

Not much to add this evening. Thursday may be more of the same. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

The bears managed to take price a bit lower today, but technical damage remains tame.




Price remains above the 200 dma on both charts. I really seems like price is simply consolidating gains. Momentum is weakening, but only somewhat modestly. The 50 dma is rising, if you haven't noticed. In the weeks ahead I anticipate a positive cross of the 200 dma.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM didn't change much and remains in the bullish camp. Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

Aside from short-term weakness, I continue to look for a resumption of upside movement to price once consolidation is complete.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the market played out with a downward bias, till Friday. On Friday, the bulls pushed back and price was driven back to near its previous top. The C and S funds closed with moderate gains as result.




Now, we head into a new week. But has anything really changed? Not that I can discern. The bullish bias appears to be intact as price has now remained about the 200 dma for more than 2 weeks. I believe we are and will continue to trend higher.

The options are neutral to modestly bullish. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk is bullish.

Breadth is bullish, my intermediate term system remains bullish. I could go on, but you get the picture. The bulls have control. I'm looking for more of the same in the weeks ahead; barring some kind of event (which is always possible).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls were not able to take advantage of Friday's rally to extend gains, though they tried early in the trading session.




But the bears mounted a counter attack and took stocks lower, even coming close to testing the 200 dma on both charts before the bulls stepped back in and kept price above that key level.

This evening, the options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive, but weakening (not a concern at this time). Breadth remains positive and is not losing much ground despite the selling pressure.

I believe a base is now being built to launch another move to the upside.

 

[coolhand]

The battle above the 200 dma continued today and the bulls continue to successfully defend it.




No change to the charts (for the most part). Breadth remains bullish and resilient. The options are neutral (again).

The market is stuck in tight trading range for now. It should eventually breakout to the upside. A test of the 200 dma would be okay.

 

[coolhand]

The bears just won't go away. Today's action did some technical damage too.




We can see that price on the DWCPF has closed below the 200 dma. Price on the S&P 500 held above its respective 200 dma. Momentum is falling. Breadth fell today as well. My intermediate term system, while still positive, is now under attack.

So, things have not gotten a bit more dicey, but still not overly so. The options are a bit bullish this evening. TRIN is bullish. we're oversold in the short term. The indicators are suggesting that we could see a turn back up on Thursday (or at least a bounce), but we might get additional selling first. In any event, I remain bullish overall. If price on the S&P 500 closes under the 200 dma, we might have more pain coming. But I still don't anticipate anything too serious at this point.

 

[coolhand]

The bears started early and the bulls never really countered as price took another pretty good pounding. I am not surprised by the additional selling, but the indicators suggested we should have seen some upside too.




So, now price is testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. RSI has fallen off pretty good, which significantly reduces the overbought readings we had a few trading days ago. Momentum is still falling and has not turned yet. Breadth is neutral after being bullish for about 2 months.

The OEX (smart money) has not been bearish and this evening it's still not bearish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM showed these money managers shifting a bit more bearish, but not enough to look for serious downside action. Therefore, this selling pressure is likely just an opportunity for the bulls to reload. But that doesn't mean the selling is over.

Since we didn't get much upside today, I'm thinking the chances of a bounce are higher now for Friday.

 

[coolhand]

Last week was a big win for the bears as all 3 TSP stock funds got hammered.




Both charts clearly show that price in now below the 200 dma. RSI has fallen below the neutral line. Momentum is decidedly to the downside. Note though, that the rising 50 dma is not too far below and may provide support should the selling continue.

My intermediate term system is still positive, but not far from flipping negative. Sentiment shows the options leaning a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is leaning bullish as well, but have tempered their long positions. TSP Talk got more bearish, but overall is neutral.

Breadth is neutral, but still looking weak in the short term.

Overall, the indicators are leaning bearish, but we've seen enough selling to look for at least a bounce. The 50 dma should be watched for support.

There are some geopolitical events taking place (power outage in Venezuela, etc.) that may be pointing to a significant future event and this could be why we are seeing some selling to this point. While that may sound bearish, it may actually be bullish. I am leaning toward the bullish outcome (for what it's worth). Aside from that this aspect of my worldview, the technical and sentiment pictures support a rally in the days ahead.

 

[coolhand]

We got the bounce. But it felt more like a turn. Does it have legs?




A significant portion of recent losses were retraced Monday. Momentum turned back up. Breadth did too. Price is now back above the 200 dma on the S&P 500 and closed right at that key average on the DWCPF.

The options are neutral this evening. I note that TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish for Tuesday, but any selling may not amount to a whole lot. Still, we need to see some follow through from the bulls now. I think we'll get it even if things get a bit choppy.

 

[coolhand]

It was a choppy day, but the bulls maintained control of price.




Momentum leveled off a bit, but is still positive. Price remains well above the 200 dma on the S&P 500, but is dancing with that same average on the DWCPF. We need to see that average take more control.

The options show the OEX leaning bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bearish this evening (1-day indicator).

I'm cautiously optimistic that price will test the previous high on the S&P 500. If it can do that, we'll see how much resistance it offers. I'm looking for more choppy action on Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

I was expecting choppy action today, but we really got more upside than anything, though the afternoon session saw the market give up some of its gains.




I was looking for a test of the previous high on the S&P 500 and we didn't have to wait long for it as price hit both a fresh intraday high and a closing high.

And I don't think it's a fake out either. Breadth is looking like it may just be getting ready for another ramp job (to the upside) as it's moved smartly higher this week (aside from Tuesday's back and forth action).

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. Momentum is decidedly bullish.

I have this suspicion that the bulls may press their advantage over the days ahead. I'd hold long positions.

 

[coolhand]

After posting a fresh high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 pulled back on Thursday.




So did the DWCPF, but neither fell much and both remain above their respective 200 dma's. Momentum has paused, but not reversed. Breadth is still in a positive condition.
Looking at sentiment, the OEX is bearish for Friday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which keeps it in the bullish camp.

My expectation has not changed. I am looking for an upside breakout; probably over the next week or so.

 

[coolhand]

All 3 TSP stock funds posted big gains last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is breaking out to the upside. More to come?




Price on the S&P is incrementally moving higher. There does appear to be some resistance, but the bears are not in the drivers seat. The one fly in the ointment is that price on the DWCPF is tracking sideways in the short term. I would be more bullish if it would follow the S&P 500 higher. My bet is that it will eventually do that.

Breadth remains positive. My intermediate term system, while remaining positive for weeks now, is hinting at improving its bullish disposition as some of the indicators appear to be turning off of their bottoms.

For Monday, the OEX remains bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains in a bullish configuration and that's key for those that like to be long. TSP Talk got bulled up and that's bearish.

Overall, the indicators are mixed, but the bulls have control. My expectation is more upside to come, but it probably won't be without some attempts by the bears to counter the bull's party.

 

[coolhand]

It was an up/down kind of day, but the bulls prevailed once again.




Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system continues to suggest more gains are coming. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is somewhat bearish for Tuesday. I see no reason to not continue looking higher.

 

[coolhand]

Tuesday's pullback has my indicators looking on the neutral side, but the I don't think the bulls are done. I remain long.

 

[BooDog]

I was seeing a bit of an inverted H&S on the DOW. March madness. Quite the gap there on the VIX too. Holding off on any moves. Still 100% G.

Signed,
Frustrated.

 

[coolhand]

We got a roller coaster ride for Wednesday, largely as a result of the Fed announcement of not hiking rates.




Yes, price is testing the 200 dma on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 looks like it may be putting in a bull flag and well away from its 200 dma. The 50 dma on both charts is closing in on a positive cross of the 200 dma. But momentum is turning down a bit, so maybe the battle continues for control of price.

The OEX is very high this evening, which is bearish. I'm not sure I trust it, given how high it is. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I don't think the volatility is over, but I just can't get overly bearish on the readings as they currently stand. That doesn't mean we can't get more selling, but I just don't see enough evidence of a potential bigger move in that direction. The trend is up until it's not.