coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

In my last post, I said that sentiment was suggesting that weakness may be dead ahead and gave the bears the nod for a few days. Despite Friday's rally, that weakness may still manifest, though if we don't see much weakness in evidence on Monday, the odds of any significant selling would begin to diminish. I also mentioned that breadth and trend were still very much bullish. Friday's rally was not a surprise under the circumstance.




The DWCPF finally closed at a fresh high on this rally. It took almost 6 weeks for that to happen, but that was my expected outcome out of the sideways consolidation. The S&P 500 continued to push ever higher. RSI is now pretty much in bearish territory (not a big deal in this market).

So, NAAIM came in pretty bullish last week, which is bullish in my book beyond a few days (a bulled up NAAIM is historically bearish in the short term, but not always). With breadth as bullish as it is maybe I shouldn't be looking for weakness at all. But, the OEX was bearish (smart money) as was the CBOE last Friday. For Monday, the OEX is still bearish. The CBOE is on the neutral side. TSP Talk is bulled up, which is bearish. So, sentiment is still telling me that weakness is likely, but trend and breadth could very well dictate price direction still. My intermediate term system flipped positive on Friday.

I'm on the fence here and can see it either way in the short term. Longer term, I'm bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Well, we got some selling today, but it didn't stick. That's yet another potential warning to the bears. It's an indication that this market is still strong; or at least resilient.




The S&P 500 eked out a gain today, while the DWCPF dipped modestly.

The OEX is neutral this evening, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM and TSP Talk were both bullish (last week). Weakness is normally expected after those kind of the readings (in the short term), but how much weakness we might get is not an exact science. Breadth remains bullish and my intermediate term system flipped positive (yesterday). NAAIM's bullishness has typically been consistent with market direction beyond the short term.

For tomorrow, we may see an attempt to take the market lower again, but the headwinds are stiff. I am not looking for much traction on any downside action.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I thought the bears might try to take price lower again, but with stiff headwinds was not anticipating that price would fall too much.




Price on the S&P 500 fell moderately, while the DWCPF fell twice as hard. That's more than I expected, but still not a surprise in the big picture. Looking at the S&P 500, it looks like just a dip after several days of upside. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

This evening, the options are now neutral. Breadth fell, but remains bullish. With NAAIM bullish, I would expect that the selling won't last much longer and we'll turn back up.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the bulls to strike back.




Both charts show healthy gains on day. Breadth turned back up from its already bullish stance. On the sentiment front, the OEX got beared up, while the CBOE is largely neutral. NAAIM reports in the morning. TRIN is bullish, but TRINQ is neutral. The signals are mixed, so the market may be on the choppy side for Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for a choppy day on Thursday and we pretty much got that as price was all over the place, but did close near the neutral line.




Not much change to the charts as they remain bullish, though they are acting toppy.

The OEX and CBOE are neutral as we head into Friday. NAAIM was near unchanged and remains bulled up. I have to respect that given they are smart money. Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

Overall, I just don't see much chance for serious downside action. In fact, we could see another break to the upside over the next few days, which would obviously be in keeping with the trend.

 

[coolhand]

Friday closed out the week with another upside breakout; this time on both charts.




With the DWCPF finally pulling away from its long consolidation, the market may be signaling even more upside in the weeks ahead.

Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system is bullish. The options are looking bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish as is TSP Talk. It would seem we all see the same bullish configurations on the charts.

I am bullish for the new week.

 

[coolhand]

Not much change to the charts this evening. They remain bullish. I note that the options are leaning bearish this evening, so we're likely going to see more downside pressure on Tuesday. I anticipate it will be contained.

 

[coolhand]

I was out of town the last few days (unexpectedly) and that took me away from my computer. I'm back now.

Last week, the bulls were not able to add to recent gains, but the bears were not able to mount a serious challenge as the C fund closed out the week just negative, while the S fund shed a bit over 1%.




The S&P 500 is tracking sideways again, while the DWCPF has dipped, but the trend is still up.

Breadth has stalled, but not retreated. It remains bullish. My intermediate term system is still positive, but could potentially flipped negative on just one moderately lower day.

NAAIM came in more bullish. TSP Talk is more bullish than it's been in many months, which is bearish, but as long as they're leaning in the direction of NAAIM and the trend I think it would be a mistake to bet against them. Having said that, while serious downside may not occur, the sentiment could make it tough to get serious upside traction too.

The OEX is bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral.

There is little change to the big picture. Smart money is generally bullish, breadth is bullish and the trend is up. The negatives don't offset these indicators all that much. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Today's mixed trading day was consistent with my mixed indicators.




While the bears managed to push the DWCPF lower (barely), the bulls managed to push the S&P 500 higher (modestly). So, nothing has changed as far the charts go.

This evening, the options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains under pressure, but remains positive. Breadth is struggling now, but it too is still positive.

My bullish perspective remains intact (as does NAAIM). I see no clear market direction for Tuesday, but the trend does remain up.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that I saw no clear market direction for Tuesday, but that the trend did remain up. It didn't hurt that NAAIM was bullish either.




As it turned out, price soared higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh high and the DWCPF closing back at its previous highs.

My intermediate term system got well on the rally (it was still positive). Breadth turned back up (it too was already positive).

The OEX is bullish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral.

It's a slam dunk; the market remains in bull mode. I suspect we may get some residual upside early in the trading day on Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

I'm having problems with the charts this evening, but there wasn't much action in the markets today so we won't miss much.

There was little change once again and my indicators remain largely the same. The options are neutral, so they aren't much help. Still, the bulls remain in control. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[1965Vintage]

I want to think you (again) for your daily post! They help me a lot!
I got out today (back to G) with a gain of .80 for the month.

I'll be waiting for a dip in May to get back in and make another percent. My goal is to make 1% a month. No greed, no fear.

My 12 month TSP return is 12% (Perfect) I owe a lot of that to you and TSP Talk for his post as well.

I spend 95% or better of my time in the G fund (Safe) But I make swing trades each month. It works well for me.
The "Coolhand Indicator" as I call it, is one I watch very closely.

Thanks again!

 

[coolhand]

The bears managed to take a little something back on Thursday. Their efforts were met with pushback as the resilience of this market remained on display.




While the DWCPF took the biggest loss, neither chart strayed that far from its highs. I do note that RSI has been dancing around the overbought line for more than 3 weeks now. But the upward bias has not changed.

Today's weakness put my intermediate term system a hair from going negative. That sounds bearish (it is), but breadth remains in a bullish configuration. And while the options are neutral again, NAAIM came in not far from unchanged (bullish).

It looks like more of the same on tap. An overall upward bias.

 

[Whipsaw]

Coolhand, greatly appreciate your analysis, as always; I looked up Ichimoku not really understanding the clouds on the chart. It is supposed to provide a high view and supporting trends; how do you interpret that? I seems to me that it lags the market quite a bit... i.e. the 24 Dec bottom and the shift from red to green in March. Thanks!

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, greatly appreciate your analysis, as always; I looked up Ichimoku not really understanding the clouds on the chart. It is supposed to provide a high view and supporting trends; how do you interpret that? I seems to me that it lags the market quite a bit... i.e. the 24 Dec bottom and the shift from red to green in March. Thanks!

The future cloud formation is just that, a future price projection based on past price action. There is no quick explanation of Ichimoku clouds, but here is link that does a decent job of sorting it out.

https://traderhq.com/trading-indicators/ichimoku-cloud-trading-strategy-explained/


I don't actively trade anymore, so I don't do in-depth chart analysis. I can look at a chart and see what I need to see fairly quickly, however. But my insight goes beyond charts (and sentiment) and delves into the geopolitical landscape in terms of risk to the financial markets. I avoid discussing that part of my analysis the majority of the time as most will not understand why I see what I see and that generates more questions than I care to answer. This is a tool that took me years to develop and can't be learned in most (if any) higher learning centers. Anyone who wants to begin a foundation of this type of perspective can start by reading The Creature From Jekyll Island.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed higher for the week on Friday, with price hitting fresh closing highs on both charts.




The bears can't get anything going and resulting in a melt up.

My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRINQ is high, which is bullish for Monday. Breadth remains bullish.

The options are neutral. TSP Talk remains bulled up, but not quite a much as last week. NAAIM remains bullish.

The song remains the same as the trend remains to the upside.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

You mentioned a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island". Over 20 years ago, I took a 2- week course at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC) in Brunswick GA. Its basically like a military base with barricks, mess hall , etc. On the weekend we were free to leave and I took a day trip with fellow classmates to tour Jekyll Island and St.Simon Island.. As I recall, it had some old mansions and compounds previously visited by the ultra rich. So its interesting to know that this Island figures into the book you mention about the Federal reserve and international banking power!

I was looking into buying book but found this link to a pdf version. Reading it now, and it is very interesting!

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy--Pori1NL6fKm2SnY/The%20Creature%20From%20Jekyll%20Island_djvu.txt

Always wanted to know more on this topic, but seems there is sooooo much more to it.

Coolhand, Thank you for telling us about the book.

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks DBA! Saved as a PDF and I already started reading it this morning. I skimmed section 2 and am reading section 4 in detail. This is a good read for sure! I think it will effectively replace several books I have read and still reference when the markets do something crazy in response to the FED or the other central banks.

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks! I just downloaded the PDF and the Kindle version too. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

You mentioned a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island". Over 20 years ago, I took a 2- week course at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC) in Brunswick GA. Its basically like a military base with barricks, mess hall , etc. On the weekend we were free to leave and I took a day trip with fellow classmates to tour Jekyll Island and St.Simon Island.. As I recall, it had some old mansions and compounds previously visited by the ultra rich. So its interesting to know that this Island figures into the book you mention about the Federal reserve and international banking power!

I was looking into buying book but found this link to a pdf version. Reading it now, and it is very interesting!

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy--Pori1NL6fKm2SnY/The%20Creature%20From%20Jekyll%20Island_djvu.txt

Always wanted to know more on this topic, but seems there is sooooo much more to it.

Coolhand, Thank you for telling us about the book.

Jekyll Island was where the biggest names in banking (JP Morgan, etc.) gathered (covertly) back in the 1913 to plan a financial take-over the US (Federal Reserve). There were some insiders in DC that helped this along. It should be noted that President Andrew Jackson fought the bankers during his Presidency (Trump has his picture hanging in the Oval Office)when they tried to infiltrate during those years. Many of our Founding Fathers understood what a Central Bank really means (loss of control of your country) and would never willingly go along with such a paradigm. Over time, those that understood passed away and those born after the fact (like us) did not know any better. We generally think it's always been that way. This book will give anyone who reads it a better foundation of how things really work (or don't).